Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Sunday, August 11, 2019

Opinion: The global economy is probably in recession, with most cyclical indicators showing business activity is flat or falling.

Recessions become obvious only once they are well established given the lagging nature of most economic data. And end-of-cycle recessions are usually impossible to distinguish from mid-cycle slowdowns until well after the slowdown has started.

The arrival of a recession is always controversial at the time and usually missed by most forecasters, as the leading business-cycle economist Victor Zarnowitz noted. Policymakers are reluctant to announce a recession for fear of harming consumer and business confidence and worsening the downturn ("Business cycles: theory, history, indicators and forecasting", Zarnowitz, 1992).

But almost all the main economic and industrial indicators that provide a reliable guide to the business cycle confirm the economy has already slowed severely.

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Just in time before the primaries and general election to land squarely on top of Trump's orange hair plugs?

Let's hope so.

#1 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-08-11 04:26 PM | Reply

The Repubs kill another one.

#2 | Posted by jpw at 2019-08-11 05:17 PM | Reply

Time for more QE?

#3 | Posted by Charliecharles at 2019-08-11 06:23 PM | Reply

The US is the only developed economy still growing. What stopped is China - which dragged down Europe as luxury exports to China have cratered. China itself is in a full blown recession with the government trying to use quantatative easing (works so well as we know) to offset the falling exports, lack of domestic demand, and zombie SOE problem - literally every good that should be growing in a developing country (cell phones, computers, cars, other durable goods) have already started double-digit declines.

Further, they have had a 10% currency devaluation - horrible for China's actually productive companies which have their debt priced in USD.

At the same time, SE Asia is booming. Vietnam, Cambodia, Mynmar - all 7-10% GDP growth for as far as the eye can see with the Chinese de-industrialization benefitting them.

Trump is a genius - for example, the Hua Wei exec that Canada arrested on behalf of the US. China still has ag sanctions on Canada over that and as soon as China announced them - he put a 10% tariff on China as they forbid their companies from buying from Canada. 4D chess which China is playing checkers.

#4 | Posted by iragoldberg at 2019-08-13 01:26 AM | Reply

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