Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Monday, August 19, 2019

A majority of economists expect a US recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a survey released on Monday. The survey came out after President Donald Trump pushed back against talk of a looming recession as a raft of US data reports last week showed a mixed picture on the economy.

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"I'm prepared for everything. I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich," Trump told reporters on Sunday. "I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money. They're buying. I saw the Wal-Mart numbers, they were through the roof.

"And most economists actually say that we're not going to have a recession. But the rest of the world is not doing well like we're doing."

His chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow also downplayed talk of a recession.

"I sure don't see a recession," he told NBC's Meet the Press.

#1 | Posted by J_Tremain at 2019-08-19 09:55 AM | Reply

The recession has to happen in 2020, before the election.

And it's not like a recession is going to hurt working and middle-class Americans, they're already hurting ...

www.theatlantic.com

A recession would be the end of Trump -- bring it on.

#2 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-08-19 10:05 AM | Reply

... "I don't think we're having a recession..." Trump told reporters on Sunday ...

The best way for Pres Trump to tell everyone that he thinks we will not have a recession is for Pres trump to stop badgering the Fed to lower interest rates.

If this is a true statement: "We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money. They're buying...."

Then a Fed rate cut would not be needed.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 10:30 AM | Reply

There will be a recession once the general election has commenced and it's clear the Republicans are going to lose the Senate and the White House. Investors will pull their money before taxes go up and the market will make a huge downturn.

#4 | Posted by MUSTANG at 2019-08-19 10:35 AM | Reply

@#4 ... There will be a recession ...

Yes, there will be a recession. There is always a recession in the future. It is part of the economic cycle. The question is when the recession will occur.

Pres Trump is doing everything he can to push the recession past the 2020 election. Even to the point where he knows what he is doing will cause damage once he leaves office. But he said he doesn't care about the economy once he leaves office.

... Investors will pull their money before taxes go up and the market will make a huge downturn. ...

A couple of thoughts..

First, the stock market is not the economy. It is one of many viewports into the health of the economy.

Second, the uncertainty of what Pres Trump will tweet next has already given investors a good case of the jitters. Have you seen the volatility of the stock market lately? It is not the picture of a stock market that has a lot of faith in the direction of the economy.


#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 10:47 AM | Reply

Democrats and their Hate Machine are trying to stir one up because Trump. There is no recession.

Trump-haters hype up a recession while the real economy is booming - www.foxnews.com

Consumer spending is two-thirds of the economy -- and guess what, in July, it didn't go down, it went up. As the Wall Street Journal noted on Friday: "The robust report -- the strongest reading since March -- is a positive signal for the U.S. economy."

The United States' largest employer, Walmart -- its latest sales were not down, but up. It revised its profit forecast not down, but up. Forecasting firm, Macroeconomic Advisors, just revised its economic growth projections -- no, not down, but up. And the Atlanta Fed just revised its economic growth projections -- again, not down, but up.

In the real economy, the Trump administration's pro-enterprise agenda is working. Lower taxes and less regulation gave businesses the confidence to invest. That means more innovation and higher worker productivity. That means more jobs are created, and workers are paid more because they're producing more. The latest jobs report saw 164,000 jobs added in July, bringing the labor force to 163.4 million - a record high.


#FakeNews is being peddled

#6 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-08-19 11:12 AM | Reply

It is not the picture of a stock market that has a lot of faith in the direction of the economy.

IMO, its due to the direction of the world.

Look at China, Pakistan and India, Russia and Europe.

I can't put a word on it, but the feeling is everything is one edge.

#7 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-08-19 11:19 AM | Reply

@#7 ... IMO, its due to the direction of the world. ...

I've said a couple of times in different threads that the US economy is still doing well, while the global economy is tettering on the brink of recession.

So, imo, the questions become:

Does the global economy go into recession, as it looks likely to do?

- and -

If the global economy goes into recession, will the current strength of the US economy be enough to, effectively, do a "shields up" to prevent the global contagion from affecting the US.

#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 11:40 AM | Reply

@#6 ... #FakeNews is being peddled ...

The article you cite cherry-picks only the data that was favorable to the intent of the article, ignoring other less-favorable data.

Talk about fake news....

#9 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 11:42 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

There will be a recession once the general election has commenced and it's clear the Republicans are going to lose the Senate and the White House. Investors will pull their money before taxes go up and the market will make a huge downturn.
#4 | POSTED BY MUSTANG

So there will be a recession. Because the Democrats.

Brilliant Musty! Way to get ahead of that talking point.

Nothing Trump has done, and is doing, have any effect on the economy.

Like with Obama. It was his fault the economy tanked in 2008 when it was clear the Democrats had won the senate and White House.

Nothing George W Bush did had any effect on anything.

#10 | Posted by ClownShack at 2019-08-19 11:52 AM | Reply

Pres Trump is now calling for a very significant cut in interest rates (100 basis points).

If the economy is doing as well as Pres Trump says it is doing, that is not what he should be calling for.

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 12:14 PM | Reply

FakeNews is being peddled

Yeah, usually under foxnews.com followed by posted by sheepleschism.

#12 | Posted by jpw at 2019-08-19 03:13 PM | Reply

@#6 ... #FakeNews is being peddled ...
The article you cite cherry-picks only the data that was favorable to the intent of the article, ignoring other less-favorable data.
Talk about fake news....
#9 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER AT 2019-08-19 11:42 AM | REPLY | NEWSWORTHY 1

And the reports talking about the economists talking about a recession are cherry picked as well. Kindof like the report 20 years ago that NY would be under water 10 years ago. I seam to recall "a majority" of scientists predict.

#13 | Posted by fishpaw at 2019-08-19 04:02 PM | Reply

Hoping we have a recession is not the way to win an election.

#14 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2019-08-19 04:38 PM | Reply

White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in effort to reverse weakening economy

www.washingtonpost.com

#15 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2019-08-19 04:46 PM | Reply

All because they lost an election.

#16 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-08-19 04:48 PM | Reply

We should cut all taxes.

Regardless of who they're taken from.

It's stealing.

The American empire had a good run.

Let's let it starve and die off.

Right republicans and libertarians?

#17 | Posted by ClownShack at 2019-08-19 04:57 PM | Reply

Of course Republicans will blame the newly elected Democrat president if it hits in 2021.

Luckily for Obama, the 2008 recession hit before he was elected.

#18 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-08-19 04:58 PM | Reply

White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in effort to reverse weakening economy

Only if they rescind the trillion dollar tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and corporations who were earning record profits and didn't invest the tax savings in job creation, choosing stock buybacks instead.

And they need to lift the cap on income subject to FICA taxes.

#19 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-08-19 05:05 PM | Reply

-And they need to lift the cap on income subject to FICA taxes.

nope. they need to increase the rate on the current cap. of course, inflationary increases to the cap are appropriate.

#20 | Posted by eberly at 2019-08-19 05:18 PM | Reply

Consumer spending is two-thirds of the economy -- and guess what, in July, it didn't go down, it went up.
#FakeNews is being peddled
#6 | POSTED BY SHEEPLESCHISM

And you are peddling it. Consumer Spending doesn't generally drop until the recession hits, not before. It's not a sign of an impending recession, it's a sign the recession is here. Its generally the last domino to fall.

Worse, an economy can't live on consumer spending. If foreign markets implode, consumer spending evaporates.

We are discussing the EARLY WARNING SIGNS:

Yield Curve: Short term bonds have higher yields than long term bonds, negative sign
GDP: Slowed growth, negative sign
Foreign Markets: Market troubles in Europe and Asia plus a Trade War, negative sign
Job Growth: Decent job growth has continued, Positive sign
Manufacturing output: Numbers are barely positive, neutral sign

The issue is that there are quite a few negative signs right now and Economists are saying a recession is likely because of them.

#21 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-08-19 06:19 PM | Reply

"However, "the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021," Hunter said in a summary of the survey, which showed 38 percent expect a contraction of growth next year, while 34 percent don't see it until the following year."

amazing. should read 62% don't expect a contraction of growth next year, while 66% don't see it at all for the following year

this is great news everyone should be happy!!

#22 | Posted by Maverick at 2019-08-19 06:32 PM | Reply

If foreign markets implode, consumer spending evaporates.

There is more to it than that. Foreign markets are imploding. That drives capital into the US. Dollar, stocks and US treasuries are valued as a safe haven.

Mainstream economists usually never predict recessions. This is unusual.

Looks to me like another left wing bogeyman to scare the public into not voting for Trump.

They'll be wrong again.

#23 | Posted by Ray at 2019-08-19 07:01 PM | Reply

this is great news everyone should be happy!!
#22 | POSTED BY MAVERICK

Have you ever met a happy democrat?

The closest I've seen has been Corky, when bombs are dropping.

#24 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-08-19 07:06 PM | Reply

Poor old Larry Dudlow had to get blotto drunk to go on "Chuck Chuck"s show and spout the Combover Quisling party line. You all recall exactly how accurate Larry was at denying the Bush-GOP Great Recession immediately before that hit. Dudlow's not an economist, and he's a craptastic economic prognosticator.

#25 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2019-08-19 07:20 PM | Reply

US STOCKS-Wall Street rallies on hopes of global economic stimulus - www.reuters.com

Oh no! The narrative is crumbling.

#26 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-08-20 12:47 AM | Reply

nope. they need to increase the rate on the current cap. of course, inflationary increases to the cap are appropriate.

#20 | Posted by eberly

nope. they need to increase the current cap on income subject to FICA taxes.

#27 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-08-20 01:20 AM | Reply

That will happen if we elect the burn or liz.

#28 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-08-20 01:06 PM | Reply

That will happen if we elect the burn or liz.
#28 | POSTED BY SNIPER

It's going to happen regardless POTUS, guy. Including trump.

#29 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2019-08-20 01:11 PM | Reply

Q: If the Trump tax cuts helped so much, why is there talk of cuts to the Social Security tax?
A: the tax cuts served the needs of corporations, with a very small positive effect felt by individuals. In some cases, individuals felt a net gain in taxation after the tax law was changed. Trump is desperate to distract from the tax law's lack of impact on the pocketbooks of individual taxpayers.

Q: If the tariffs on Chinese goods are all being paid by the Chinese, why the need to postpone the next round of tariffs until after the Xmas shopping season?
A: Numerous sources--including the Fed, money center banks and manufacturers--report the additional expense paid by US consumers, after the implementation of earlier rounds of tariffs. Trump is trapped by his poor negotiation tactics--raise tariffs and harm US consumers, or hold off and justify the 'long game' played by the Chinese, who are counting the days until Trump is out of office.

Q: With interest rates so low and with so many positive indicators relating to the state of the US economy, why are additional rate cuts by the Fed called for by Der Dotard?
A: New housing construction is in a slump, borrowers are refinancing but not buying homes, and credit card debt is at an all-time high. Of course, Fed cuts do not have an effect on interest rates charged by credit card issuers. Consumers continue to live beyond their means, and slowing of continued purchasing by consumers will hit the economy hard and fast.

And these, kids, are the building blocks used by the Dems to defeat the worst president in the history of the United States, in the 2020 elections...

#30 | Posted by catdog at 2019-08-20 01:28 PM | Reply

US STOCKS-Wall Street rallies on hopes of global economic stimulus - www.reuters.com
Oh no! The narrative is crumbling.

#26 | POSTED BY SHEEPLESCHISM

Is it? They had to correct your article because the rally crashed. OOPS!

And we are down against today.

#31 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-08-20 01:57 PM | Reply

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