Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Monday, August 19, 2019

More than 60 percent of the $13.2 million Biden has raised online came in the first week of his campaign, which launched in late April, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue.

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In both of the mentioned instances, it looks to me as if the image people had of the person was not the image the person projected during the campaigning.

I can see that for fmr VP Biden. But for fmr Rep O'Rourke, it is a bit more of a puzzler. I'm wondering if the rest of the Country got to "know" fmr Rep O'Rourke from his Texas Senate campaign, but that was a different O'Rourke than the one we're seeing for his nation-wide Presidential campaign.

... and that dentist visit video. What was he thinking?

Fmr VP Biden has an uphill battle, to be sure. Granted, he has the lead now, but he has the tough job, i.e., keeping it.

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 10:53 AM | Reply

... and that dentist visit video. What was he thinking?

Biscupid Beto!

I think its his good looks and charming personality, he cares, about what I have no idea.

#2 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-08-19 11:15 AM | Reply

Not true, as polls show that obviously Joe will beat Trump at the polls.

#3 | Posted by MSgt at 2019-08-19 12:13 PM | Reply

@#3 ... as polls show that obviously Joe will beat Trump at the polls. ...

If the election were held when those polls were taken and the result is a popular vote, not the Electoral College results, then I'd say that Pres Trump has a good chance to lose to fmr VP Biden.

But the election is next year, and the vote will be processed by the Electoral College. So the current polls don't reflect that situation.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 12:28 PM | Reply

#4 | Posted by LampLighter

State-by-state tracking polls don't look good for Trump. He's in deep doo doo.

They poll 5000 people a day and releases their tracking poll results once a month:

morningconsult.com

#5 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-08-19 02:01 PM | Reply

"They poll 5000 people a day and releases their tracking poll results once a month:
morningconsult.com
#5 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY "

Remind me again what the polls one hour before election day predicted? Only a fool would put any creedence into a poll 15 months before an election.

#6 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 02:05 PM | Reply

@#5 ... State-by-state tracking polls ...

I've been looking for state-state polling that has a reasonably good methodology. That site looks good. thx.

part of the explanation of the methodology:
morningconsult.com (click on "Methodology" on the left side of the page)

... Methodology

This page was last updated on August 5, 2019.

About Morning Consult Political Intelligence

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level. Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.

About the state-level data:

Morning Consult conducted more than 2 million surveys with registered U.S. voters from January 20, 2017 to July 31, 2019 to determine the approval ratings for President Donald Trump in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for each month. These results use a statistical technique called multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate state-level public opinion from the national survey data for a specific month.

In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Trump. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don't know/no opinion. The surveys also included about 30 demographic questions....



Having said all that, the states I'm watching at the moment are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas.

thx again for that polling site.


#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 02:18 PM | Reply

@#6 ... Remind me again what the polls one hour before election day predicted? ...

They said that candidate Trump would lose the popular vote, and that the Electoral College results were within the margin of error for critical states, i.e., too close to call.

#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 02:20 PM | Reply

"@#6 ... Remind me again what the polls one hour before election day predicted? ...

They said that candidate Trump would lose the popular vote, and that the Electoral College results were within the margin of error for critical states, i.e., too close to call.

#8 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER"

Wrong.

www.thewrap.com

#9 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 02:40 PM | Reply

I support Bernie.

But if it is Biden as the nominee, I'll vote for the old fart ...

Anyone but Trump.

#10 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-08-19 02:50 PM | Reply

@#9 ... Wrong. ...

All that shows is what I said, they ignored the margin of error for Electoral College results.

I'd agree that blogs saying, "too close to call, I don't know" are not great for page hits. So they tend to make their own extrapolations about the margin of error, going out onto the thin ice, so to speak.

Additionally, polling is a lagging indicator. Fmr Dir Comey's hit at fmr Sec of State Clinton came too late for the polls to react solidly, they were still in flux as late as Election Day, leading to larger margins of error.

It was a close election, to be sure. I'm also the first to admit that polls are not perfect, far from it. (I say that having worked for a polling company for decades). But it is better to understand the flaws they have and react accordingly.

Oddly, the LA Times had an excellent article about polling and its pitfalls in the months leading up to the 2016 election. It noted one of the many big challenges a pollster faces - who is really going to vote?


That's is also why polls citing "likely voters" tend to be better than polls that just ask any registered voter.


Also, when the polls were saying good things about Pres Trump, he could not say enough good things about the polls. So even he likes them, at times. ;)


#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 02:55 PM | Reply

"@#9 ... Wrong. ...

All that shows is what I said, they ignored the margin of error for Electoral College results.

POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER "

Actually, you are wrong again. Apparently you didn't read the link, or even look at the pictures. Every one of the polls cited give electoral vote counts.

Speaking of links, I provided one to back up my claim. You don't. Though I apprecieate your opinion, it is unfounded.

#12 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 03:14 PM | Reply

@#12 ... Actually, you are wrong again. Apparently you didn't read the link, or even look at the pictures. Every one of the polls cited give electoral vote counts. ...

I saw that, and that is what I was talking about.

How did those sites get to those electoral vote counts? They had to extrapolate when the polls were so close that the margin of error was significant.

... I provided one to back up my claim. You don't. ...

Because the link you provided showed what I was saying.

Thank you for appreciating my opinion.


#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 03:34 PM | Reply

"Because the link you provided showed what I was saying.
Thank you for appreciating my opinion.

#13 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER "

It did not. The words "electoral count" mean "electoral county", not "popular vot" "close electoral count". Nor does a single one of them say they ignored margin of error as you claim. Besides, margins of errors in the tens, which they would have to be to support your claim? LOL They are usually around 3%.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

But OK, you have no proof to back up your point. Thank you for your opinion.

#14 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 03:45 PM | Reply

@#12

Here's some of what I was talking about...

www.realclearpolitics.com

That summary has the Electoral College as:

Clinton: 203
Trump: 164

with 171 Electoral College votes in the "toss-up" column, i.e., too close to call. The states that were too close to call, and their Electoral Collge votes are:

Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
New Hampshire (4)
Maine CD2 (1)
Maine (2)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Georgia (16)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
Arizona (11)
Iowa (6)

How those 171 toss-up votes were tallied by the various news media and blogs to declare who would win is the problem.

#15 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 03:46 PM | Reply

"#15 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER "

Again, margins of error are generally in the 3% range, not in the tens of percentage points necessary for your a"#15 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER "

Again, margins of error are generally in the 3% range, not in the tens of percentage points necessary for your argument to hold water.

Why don't you just simply provide a link that backs up your claim of, "They said that candidate Trump would lose the popular vote, and that the Electoral College results were within the margin of error for critical states, i.e., too close to call."

#16 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 04:06 PM | Reply

@#16 ... Again, margins of error are generally in the 3% range, not in the tens of percentage points necessary for your argument to hold water. ...

Huh? tens of percent? Nah.

From the realclerpolitics.com link I gave...

Florida was listed as a toss-up state. RCP shows candidate Trump with a 0.2% lead. Margins of error range a bit above 3%.

North Carolina was listed as a toss-up state. RCP shows candidate Trump with a 1.0% lead. Margins of error around 3.5%

Pennsylvania was listed as a toss-up state. RCP shows candidate Clinton with a 1.9% lead. Margins of error around 3.5%.

I'm not going to go through each of the toss-up states, the information is at the link I cited if you want to look at it.

Of the three I noted above, the largest lead in polling was 1.9%, and the margin of error ranged around 3.5%. Hence, "toss-up." The lead was within the margin of error.

fwiw, I like using RCP to view poll results. They are one of the very few sites that will say, "we don't know, too close to call." I wish more sites and blogs would be as candid.

#17 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 04:49 PM | Reply

... and here's the page for the popular vote:

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
www.realclearpolitics.com

It shows fmr Sec of State Clinton ahead by 3.2% with a margin of error around 3%.

#18 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 04:55 PM | Reply

It shows fmr Sec of State Clinton ahead by 3.2% with a margin of error around 3%.

#18 | Posted by LampLighter

The polling was pretty accurate. She beat Trump by 2.1% in the popular vote.

#19 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-08-19 05:13 PM | Reply

" I'm wondering if the rest of the Country got to "know" fmr Rep O'Rourke from his Texas Senate campaign, "

The country knew about him and were cheering for him simply for partisan, not idiological, resons. They just wanted Cruz beaten.

But now Beto is up against other Democrats and it is a completely different game. He's not trying to unseat a hated Republican Senator. The public sees that amongst other Democrats, he is nothing special

#20 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 06:16 PM | Reply

@#20 ... The public sees that amongst other Democrats, he is nothing special ...

That's probably pretty close to the reason.

Which also highlights a problem the Democrats have in general - they are being compared mostly to each other, so no one really stands out as being quite different and better.

#21 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-19 06:28 PM | Reply

Biden doesn't need more money.

He beats Trump in:

Every

Single

Poll.

#22 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 06:48 PM | Reply

"Biden doesn't need more money.
He beats Trump in:
Every
Single
Poll.

#22 | POSTED BY TOR "

There's only one poll that matters. Ask Hillary.

And that poll hasn't been taken yet.

#23 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 06:52 PM | Reply

Times have change goat roper.

Trump has devastated the lives of the rural voters in a trio of states that helped get him elected.

They're all wishing Hillary was President now.

#24 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 10:01 PM | Reply

"They're all wishing Hillary was President now.

#24 | POSTED BY TOR"

Citation needed

#25 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 10:09 PM | Reply

Not true, as polls show that obviously Joe will beat Trump at the polls.
#3 | POSTED BY MSGT AT 2019-08-19 12:13 PM

That's the "fight" you really want - because Trump will mop the floor with Biden, but the Squad poses a real and present danger to his re-"election".

Warren and Sanders will destroy Trump debate after debate.

#26 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2019-08-19 10:13 PM | Reply

@ Goatse It is obvious the regret having bet the farm on Trump.

#27 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 10:15 PM | Reply

" It is obvious the regret having bet the farm on Trump.

#27 | POSTED BY TOR "

It's not obvious. But if it is, ou should have no problem citing it. Otherwise we'll just chalk it off to the logical fallacy of ad populum.

#28 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-19 10:17 PM | Reply

If only there was a way to know what the majority of people thought in those states.

#29 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 10:34 PM | Reply

I said it before and I'll say it again. Biden is too old, male, white for the radical left in this election cycle.

#30 | Posted by willowby at 2019-08-19 10:40 PM | Reply

This just in Sanders is older whiter and....ok his masculinity can be debated but you get the idea.

Biden is going to win.

#31 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 10:50 PM | Reply

If biden gets the nominees, dems deserve the loss they'll experience. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Just sucks we have to literally let repubs destroy the country before the dem establishment will allow a populist candidate to get nominated.

#32 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-08-19 11:29 PM | Reply

*nomination

#33 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-08-19 11:29 PM | Reply

I said it before and I'll say it again. Biden is too old, male, white for the radical left in this election cycle.

#30 | Posted by willowby

When asking for a candidate who isn't owned by bankers is seen as radical, the country is done.

#34 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-08-19 11:30 PM | Reply

Elizabeth Warren?

#35 | Posted by Tor at 2019-08-19 11:42 PM | Reply

"...we have to literally let repubs destroy the country..."
#32 | POSTED BY SPEAKSOFTLY

You're greatly exaggerating.

#36 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-08-19 11:42 PM | Reply

Biden doesn't need more money.

He beats Trump in:

Every

Single

Poll.

#22 | POSTED BYTOR

So does Bernie ...

Bernie and Biden only Democrats beating Trump in new poll
drudge.com

Biden is pushing the saccharine "electibility" argument that will eventually crash from it's own sugar-high ...

While Bernie has the right ideas and is right on the issues.

I'll vote for old fart Joe if I have to, but I'm for Bernie going all the way.

#37 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-08-21 11:11 AM | Reply

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