Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, August 30, 2019

U.S. consumer sentiment fell the most in six years, slumping to the lowest level of Donald Trump's presidency as Americans expressed concern about how his tariffs will affect the economy.

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Sounds about right. I looked at prices on a new lawn mower - price has spiked.

#1 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2019-08-30 02:20 PM | Reply

I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with the economy. There are too many conflicting signals.

Consumer purchasing is up. (Good!)

But the shipping (trucking and rail) of those goods is down. (Bad)

Are the retailers working from an inventory they have built up?

The US economy is doing quite well, but the other economies of the world are starting to suffer. Will the US be able to do a "shields up" type of thing to keep a global recession from hitting the US?

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-31 12:17 AM | Reply

"I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with the economy. There are too many conflicting signals."

Probably recession, or at least flat growth coming in the next year or two. A recession is defined as quarters of no growth, so it could just be a near recession.

#3 | Posted by goatman at 2019-08-31 12:31 AM | Reply

@#3 ... A recession is defined as [two] quarters of no growth ...

(If you'll pardon my addition of the number of quarters in your comment...)

That's the thing with a recession, we really don't know "officially" until six months after it starts.

Hence the article I posted a few days back...

Global economy is probably in recession
drudge.com

...Recessions become obvious only once they are well established given the lagging nature of most economic data.

And end-of-cycle recessions are usually impossible to distinguish from mid-cycle slowdowns until well after the slowdown has started.

The arrival of a recession is always controversial at the time and usually missed by most forecasters, as the leading business-cycle economist Victor Zarnowitz noted. ...


Here in the US, we really won't know we are in a recession until six months after it started.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-31 01:04 AM | Reply

Probably has to do with the negative MSM reporting on the economy.
They'll be wrong as usual.

When the 2008 recession hit, I remember their excuse. "Nobody saw it coming."

Europe and elsewhere. That's a different story.

#5 | Posted by Ray at 2019-08-31 06:21 AM | Reply

Sounds about right. I looked at prices on a new lawn mower - price has spiked.

#1 | Posted by GalaxiePete

I was in the market for a new weed eater. Found the same thing.

Decided it was better to watch a few Youtube videos and fix it myself.

#6 | Posted by jpw at 2019-08-31 12:38 PM | Reply

Probably has to do with the negative MSM reporting on the economy.
They'll be wrong as usual.

In what way?

#7 | Posted by jpw at 2019-08-31 12:39 PM | Reply

I was in the market for a new weed eater. Found (price has spiked). Decided it was better to watch a few Youtube videos and fix it myself.

That's how recessions start.

Seriously: the consumer sees prices rise, so they find an alternative to commerce. Multiply that micro into macro, and growth either slows or -------.

(~purposefully misspelling ------- to avoid censor bot)

#8 | Posted by Danforth at 2019-08-31 12:59 PM | Reply

In what way?
#7 | POSTED BY JPW

Historically, mainstream predictions are typically wrong.
Neither is consumer sentiment a reliable indicator.

Usually economists never predict recessions.
I remember well after the 2008 recession. They said, "nobody saw it coming."

#9 | Posted by Ray at 2019-08-31 01:14 PM | Reply

Are the retailers working from an inventory they have built up?

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-08-31 12:17 AM

I am. I have slowed down my purchasing. A year ago, I was aggressively buying, to leverage buying power. Now I've slowed down, reduced backstack and slowed down on the buying.

I almost lost the business during the last recession, I won't leave myself exposed like that again.

#10 | Posted by SunTzuMeow at 2019-08-31 04:21 PM | Reply

#8 I know. It was a luxury expense to simply replace it so when I saw the increases (having shopped a bit prior) I decided it was best to not trash it and save the $$.

I guess that's why Orange Schittstain's economic policy is garbage, it forces consumers in a consumption driven economy to make that decision.

#11 | Posted by jpw at 2019-08-31 05:11 PM | Reply

"Fix it?!? but I want the NEWWW neon green weedwhacker Pro!"

"The latest fad gadgets cost more!"

"But-but-but *lip pout* I'ma consumer"

#12 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-09-01 01:28 PM | Reply

The US economy has been growing for a decade.
The world is going into recession.

Pay down your debt now.

#13 | Posted by bored at 2019-09-01 01:43 PM | Reply

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