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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Real Clear Politics | Posted By Tim Hains On Date September 3, 2019

During an interview with RJ Eskow on "The Zero Hour," writer and host of the new "Useful Idiots" podcast Matt Taibbi warned that Donald Trump could very well win in 2020, pointing out that a large portion of people who voted for him in 2016 said they did not "approve" of him.

MATT TAIBBI: I think people should be concerned [that Trump could win again in 2020] because the same basic analytical error that we saw in 2016, one that I made myself, is happening again.

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Per the article ...

... people who disapproved of Donald Trump were one of his biggest constituencies, so that is kind of the problem going into this campaign that I see people making the same mistake. They say the numbers just don't add up.

Whereas if you just go by what you see on the campaign trail, and the realities that I've seen recently say, if anything, he is doing better than he was doing at this stage in the race last time.

He generates an enormous amount of enthusiasm. You can't underestimate that.


Democrats can't rely on the old traditional methods of politics. If they do, Trump wins in 2020.

#1 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-05 08:51 AM | Reply

Pinch, what do you mean by the "old traditional methods of politics"?

#2 | Posted by eberly at 2019-09-05 09:00 AM | Reply

The headline is spot-on.

"Conventional wisdom" says that someone with an approval rating as low as Pres Trump's cannot possibly win re-election.

At this point, I'm more than 50-50 that "conventional wisdom" will be turned upside down and tossed out the window in November 2020.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-05 10:29 AM | Reply

"conventional wisdom" relies on rational behavior. Trump cultists are anything but.

#4 | Posted by schifferbrains at 2019-09-05 10:36 AM | Reply

Their behavior is actually rational when you taken into account that they hate the system more than they disapprove of Trump. Many of these are people who felt they've been screwed over by the system no matter which party was in power.

#5 | Posted by sentinel at 2019-09-05 12:09 PM | Reply

conventional wisdom" relies on rational behavior. Trump cultists are anything but.

#4 | POSTED BY SCHIFFERBRAINS

Bingo.

Also, you can't poll stupidity and stupid people, unfortunately, vote.

#6 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-05 12:23 PM | Reply

Many of these are people who felt they've been screwed over by the system no matter which party was in power.

What pathetic is that they're likely the same uneducated white males that think of themselves as rugged individualists who created themselves alone and would tell anybody else on hard times to pick themselves up by their bootstraps and stop whining.

Personally, I'll take the whining over electing an idiot conman just to watch the world burn and stick it to those who aren't bitter, miserable losers.

#7 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-05 12:26 PM | Reply

"conventional wisdom" relies on rational behavior.

No it doens't

Trump cultists are anything but.

"conventional wisdom" is a what a cult does ....

Set of ideas, generally accepted as true by a social group.

#4 | POSTED BY SCHIFFERBRAINS

Truly..

#8 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-09-05 12:28 PM | Reply

Bingo
#6 | POSTED BY JPW

And you can add JPW to the SCHIFFERBRAINS crowd

#9 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-09-05 12:29 PM | Reply

"Many of these are people who felt they've been screwed over by the system no matter which party was in power."

Translation from right wing angry speech.
They are people who resent Civil Rights for black people, college educated egg heads who condescend to them, women who are ambitious, immigrants who come here and work hard and then enjoy a higher living standard than the angry right wingers. They are against anyone and anything which creates change in the social hierarchy which used to put white men on top, it doesn't seem fair to them.

#10 | Posted by danni at 2019-09-05 12:50 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 2

"What pathetic is that they're likely the same uneducated white males that think of themselves as rugged individualists who created themselves alone and would tell anybody else on hard times to pick themselves up by their bootstraps and stop whining."

I definitely know a couple of people like that, mostly on my Facebook feed of people I went to school with. It's a mistake to lump all Trump supporters into that category. Anyone who does that is helping Trump.

#11 | Posted by sentinel at 2019-09-05 01:04 PM | Reply

"conventional wisdom" is a what a cult does ....

Typical righty tactic.

Take your own problems and accuse the other side of doing it.

You're a trumper. Which means you're a cultist.

And an idiot.

#12 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-05 01:06 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

It's a mistake to lump all Trump supporters into that category. Anyone who does that is helping Trump.

Fair enough.

But that wouldn't be as nice a chum to throw in the water, would it? :)

#13 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-05 01:07 PM | Reply

the SCHIFFERBRAINS crowd
#9 | POSTED BY ANDREAMACKRIS

Andrea is onto my crowd...

We meet after six outside the mall, smoking cigarettes and giving the stink eye to the Olds.

In Lamplighter's post he was referring to conventional wisdom in terms of predicting an election, usually based on polls, approval ratings, or just a general consensus of the flaming bag o' dogschitt in office.

But conventional wisdom isn't ready for the farmer who's losing it all because of Trump, to go ahead and vote for Trump.

But wait - maybe there's a gleam of hope? Has their patience finally worn thin?
www.washingtonpost.com

www.msnbc.com

It's a mistake to lump all Trump supporters into that category. Anyone who does that is helping Trump.
#11 | POSTED BY SENTINEL

Agreed.

#14 | Posted by schifferbrains at 2019-09-05 01:23 PM | Reply

they hate the system more than they disapprove of Trump. Many of these are people who felt they've been screwed over by the system no matter which party was in power.

. . .

Also, you can't poll stupidity and stupid people, unfortunately, vote.

Which is evidenced by the fact that 17% of people approve of the job that Congress is doing yet the Congressional Incumbent reelection rate averages over 90% since 1964.

Taibbi is correct, relying on approval polls gets you nowhere when it comes time for people to vote for a candidate.

#15 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2019-09-05 01:25 PM | Reply

As a candidate, all people knew about Trump was that he was a blowhard sexual assaulter.

America now knows far more about what a lying, self-aggrandizing, narcissistic POS he is.

#16 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-09-07 03:38 AM | Reply

Oh, and he hasn't kept any of the promises made as a candidate.

Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall!

Now, military families and hurricane victims will have to pay a price thanks to Trump's diversion of hundreds of millions of dollars from those projects and FEMA disaster relief. Construction workers who were going to renovate and build new military housing, day care centers, and schools on bases won't be employed, and so much more ...

#17 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2019-09-07 03:42 AM | Reply

"Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall!"

Rape must not pay as good as Trump's actuarial team was hoping.

#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2019-09-07 03:58 AM | Reply

@ AU

As a candidate, all people knew about Trump was that he was a blowhard sexual assaulter.

America now knows far more about what a lying, self-aggrandizing, narcissistic POS he is.

Oh, and he hasn't kept any of the promises made as a candidate.

Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall!

Now, military families and hurricane victims will have to pay a price thanks to Trump's diversion of hundreds of millions of dollars from those projects and FEMA disaster relief. Construction workers who were going to renovate and build new military housing, day care centers, and schools on bases won't be employed, and so much more ...

I agree a zillion percent that everyone knew what Trump was before 2016 and everyone knows what Trump is now = total lying garbage on a daily basis, even on an hour by hour basis on Twitter.

Taibbi and others like Jimmy Dore are pointing out why people voted for Trump in the first place. And the answer to that is rooted in wealth inequality that's creating all angry pissed off voters in the first place.

When Hillary used the "deplorables" comment, she was talking about a portion of Trump voters (racists and racist sympathizers), but right-wingers used Hillary's comment to their advantage by insisting that Hillary meant all Trump voters -- and it's a mistake for people who call themselves liberal and Democrats to write-off all Trump voters in the 'deplorable' POV set by right-wingers, but that's what's happening and it's being enabled by the prestige media.

#19 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-07 11:48 AM | Reply

Democrats can't rely on the old traditional methods of politics. If they do, Trump wins in 2020.

#1 | POSTED BY PINCHALOAF

What I meant by old traditional methods is really how Democrats have approached politics since the rise of Bill and Hillary Clinton and Obama, and what now passes for "liberal" or "progressive" -- that's what I meant by that.

America is in it's second Gilded Age.

What was the response to the first Gilded Age? It was a progressive (and Republican) named Teddy Roosevelt who was a Trust Buster (breaking up corporate monopolies) who launched the first Progressive Era.

The backlash to TR's Progressive Era was the Roaring Twenties and soaring wealth inequality, and when the 1929 Stock Market Crash/Great Depression happened what was the response? FDR's New Deal, which re-established 40 years of favorable worker policies that created the world's first middle-class.

As working and middle-class Americans were doing well in the 1950's and 1960's, there was still social inequality, which was addressed by LBJ's Great Society.

The backlash? The infamous 1971 Lewis Powell Memo and the start of a committed long-term and sustained corporate effort to roll back New Deal and Great Society programs.

Again, America is now in it's second Gilded Age -- the corporations won, we're now a true Plutocracy. And they're now entrenched thanks to Citizens United.

At the very end of historian Joseph J. Ellis's awesome lecture, 'American Dialogue' www.youtube.com Ellis thinks that if there's going to be another era where America isn't a Plutocracy, it'll be called something other than the "Progressive Era", "New Deal", or "Great Society", and that it'll be called something else. However, Ellis is pessimistic about it happening.

All that said, the Democratic Party, as it is today, is basically the same as the Republican Party with some exceptions. What makes them the same is who benefits from the current Plutocracy/second Gilded Age, and that's their party donors, and now they're entrenched as never before.

Last but not least, for me, it's either Bernie, Warren, Yang, or Tulsi in 2020 -- anyone else, forget it. And even if one of the four aforementioned becomes the Democratic Nominee, the DNC and the Democratic Establishment has to fully support them, something I doubt will happen if we get to that point.

#20 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-07 12:36 PM | Reply

"America is in it's second Gilded Age."

The riiiight disputes that with the observation "poor people have new iPhones and sneakers."

They see the gild and think it's solid gold.

#21 | Posted by snoofy at 2019-09-07 02:19 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Pinch, what do you mean by the "old traditional methods of politics"?

#2 | POSTED BYEBERLY

What I meant by old traditional methods is really how Democrats have approached politics since the rise of Bill and Hillary Clinton and Obama, and what now passes for "liberal" or "progressive" -- that's what I meant by that.

America is in it's second Gilded Age.

What was the response to the first Gilded Age? It was a progressive (and Republican) named Teddy Roosevelt who was a Trust Buster (breaking up corporate monopolies) who launched the first Progressive Era.

The backlash to TR's Progressive Era was the Roaring Twenties and soaring wealth inequality, and when the 1929 Stock Market Crash/Great Depression happened what was the response? FDR's New Deal, which re-established 40 years of favorable worker policies that created the world's first middle-class.

As working and middle-class Americans were doing well in the 1950's and 1960's, there was still social inequality, which was addressed by LBJ's Great Society.

The backlash? The infamous 1971 Lewis Powell Memo and the start of a committed long-term and sustained corporate effort to roll back New Deal and Great Society programs.

Again, America is now in it's second Gilded Age -- the corporations won, we're now a true Plutocracy. And they're now entrenched thanks to Citizens United.

At the very end of historian Joseph J. Ellis's awesome lecture, 'American Dialogue' youtu.be Ellis thinks that if there's going to be another era where America isn't a Plutocracy, it'll be called something other than the "Progressive Era", "New Deal", or "Great Society", and that it'll be called something else. However, Ellis is pessimistic about it happening.

All that said, the Democratic Party, as it is today, is basically the same as the Republican Party with some exceptions. What makes them the same is who benefits from the current Plutocracy/second Gilded Age, and that's their party donors, and now they're entrenched as never before.

Last but not least, for me, it's either Bernie, Warren, Yang, or Tulsi in 2020 -- anyone else, forget it. And even if one of the four aforementioned becomes the Democratic Nominee, the DNC and the Democratic Establishment has to fully support them, something I doubt will happen if we get to that point.

#22 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-07 03:21 PM | Reply

The riiiight disputes that with the observation "poor people have new iPhones and sneakers."

#21 | POSTED BY SNOOFY

You're right -- and that's something also mentioned by enlightened billionaire Nick Hanauer in his conversations with his retrograde billionaire peers who dismiss wealth inequality because they saw a poor kid with an iPhone.

#23 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-07 03:26 PM | Reply

"Pinch, what do you mean by the "old traditional methods of politics"?
#2 | POSTED BYEBERLY"

This 60-second animation shows how divided Congress has become over the last 60 years:
The Rise Of Partisanship In The House of Representatives
www.youtube.com

#24 | Posted by snoofy at 2019-09-07 03:29 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

This 60-second animation shows how divided Congress has become over the last 60 years:
The Rise Of Partisanship In The House of Representatives
www.youtube.com

#24 | POSTED BYSNOOFY

That is an awesome video.

Thanks for posting it!

#25 | Posted by PinchALoaf at 2019-09-07 05:24 PM | Reply

What no one is talking about is the syphilitic elephant in the room.

Illegitimate President Bucket of ---- won the presidency through malfeasance.

Actions that have not been addressed.

Look for more in 2020.

On steroids.

Illegitimate President Bucket of ---- will likely win reelection. I give the odds at around 80-90%

Why?

Republicans cheat
Voter disenfranchisement
Russian interference-which we only know a portion of.
and the most important-voting insecurity-your vote doesn't really count.

truth hurts

#26 | Posted by truthhurts at 2019-09-07 06:09 PM | Reply

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