Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, September 11, 2019

In 22 states - including electorally important ones like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - the number of people working in factories actually fell in the first seven months of this year due to Trump's trade war. At this point, even if the Chinese were to finally come to an agreement, the table is now set for a downturn that will most likely lead to a recession.

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This is why you don't follow your gut and enter into a trade war with a economic superpower whose leader is not beholden to a popularity contest to remain in power right before an election.

Fat Nixon expected Xi to cave quickly and now he painted himself into a corner. There is no easy way for him to cancel the trade war without looking weak to his base. Xi knows it and will now use this news to beat him into an even better trade deal for China than they had.

Xi is playing chess. Fat Nixon is playing checkers with half the pieces missing.

#1 | Posted by Nixon at 2019-09-11 07:16 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 5

#1 | POSTED BY NIXON

LOL. China is imploding. Xi's fear is not losing an election, it is losing his life.

#2 | Posted by iragoldberg at 2019-09-11 11:15 AM | Reply | Funny: 2 | Newsworthy 1

Bull Crap.

#3 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-11 11:27 AM | Reply

@#2 ... China is imploding. ...

What is China's GDP growth rate?

What is the US's GDP growth rate?

Hint: for the quarter ending June 2019, China's GDP growth rate was over 6%.

I am not saying that China is not hurting from the trade war, they are.

But so is the US.

US companies are pulling out of China, but for the most part they are not coming back to the US. The US companies pulling out of China are keeping the jobs out of the US, and keeping them mainly in Southeast Asia.

So yeah, China is hurting from the trade war, but so is the US. So far, it is not looking as if the trade war is convincing US companies to move jobs back to the US en masse.

Hopefully, we can get China to stop the intellectual property theft, but even if we accomplish that, it won't bring jobs back to the US.

Companies have shown that they prefer to invest outside the US.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-11 11:57 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

I think imploding is a little overstated...

But what good does Ira think will come of it if it was "imploding"? How would the global economy weather the "implosion" of the second largest economy?

#5 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-11 12:01 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#4

The flight of US manufacturing is not going to be reversed by having companies "come back" but new manufacturing can be retained through incentives and fair trade deals.

As for China's growth rate, China is still considered to be an "Emerging Market" so GDP under 6% is considered sub par. They are at 6.2% through Q2 but Q3 is being forecast at 5.6-5.8% and imports of "manufacturing products" (other manufactured products necessary for Chinese Manufacturers to build their own products for export) are down 31% over the past quarter so that does not bode well for GDP in Q4, which is their largest quarter of the year.

#6 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2019-09-11 02:47 PM | Reply

@#6 ... The flight of US manufacturing is not going to be reversed by having companies "come back" ...

I agree, but that is not what Pres Trump is saying to justify his trade war.

... new manufacturing can be retained through incentives and fair trade deals. ...

If the production costs are lower, then, yes.

US companies have not shown any inclination to remain in the US if they can obtain less expensive production elsewhere.


... China is still considered to be an "Emerging Market" ...

China is the world's second largest economy.

It is considered "emerging" only because it still has a lot of growth capability. A Lot.

Eventually China's economy could be 3 to 5 times the size of the United States economy.


... so that does not bode well for GDP in Q4 ...

I never said the trade war was not affecting China. Quite the contrary, I have said it is.

To wit, from #4 - "I am not saying that China is not hurting from the trade war, they are."

Indeed, the trade war is affecting the economies of many countries. The global economy is having troubles, probably one reason why China is being hit so hard.


#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-11 04:22 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

China is imploding.

Yeah, 6.2% growth is killing them.

#8 | Posted by Nixon at 2019-09-11 04:48 PM | Reply

Yeah, China is imploding...

2019 : U.S. trade in goods with China

NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2019 7,134.3 41,603.8 -34,469.5
February 2019 8,433.6 33,194.4 -24,760.8
March 2019 10,426.5 31,175.7 -20,749.1
April 2019 7,896.3 34,798.9 -26,902.6
May 2019 9,074.5 39,269.1 -30,194.6
June 2019 9,034.7 39,002.3 -29,967.6
July 2019 8,733.7 41,508.7 -32,775.0

#9 | Posted by Nixon at 2019-09-11 04:51 PM | Reply

"the number of people working in factories actually fell in the first seven months of this year due to Trump's trade war."

But black unemployment is still going down.
I'm sure white voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania who lost their jobs won't be at all resentful about that.

#10 | Posted by snoofy at 2019-09-11 05:00 PM | Reply

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Every quarter is a recession when you are poor. Fact is, if as a person, you are just staying idle in training yourself nad getting ready for the new economy, you are always going to be in a state of recession.

#11 | Posted by boaz at 2019-09-11 07:07 PM | Reply

Unless there is significant economic pain at a micro level, a recession will not matter with hardcore Trump voters. He is their messiah. For swing voters, a firm belief that the Dem candidate can get them out of a recession prontodente will draw them from Trump to the alternative.

For my money, unless the economy tanks billy in the coming year, it will be only a minor part of the decision-making of swing voters. They will need to be convinced that another four years of Trump's mouth, tweets and scams will be much worse than what they have already seen...

#12 | Posted by catdog at 2019-09-11 09:19 PM | Reply

Xi is playing chess. Fat Nixon is playing checkers with half the pieces missing.

#1 | POSTED BY NIXON

More like Fat Nixon is playing tic tac toe.

#13 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2019-09-11 09:53 PM | Reply

Fat Nixon is playing checkers with half the pieces missing.
#1 | Posted by Nixon

No wonder you are loosing.

#14 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-12 12:08 PM | Reply

Yeah, China is imploding...
2019 : U.S. trade in goods with China
NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2019 7,134.3 41,603.8 -34,469.5
February 2019 8,433.6 33,194.4 -24,760.8
March 2019 10,426.5 31,175.7 -20,749.1
April 2019 7,896.3 34,798.9 -26,902.6
May 2019 9,074.5 39,269.1 -30,194.6
June 2019 9,034.7 39,002.3 -29,967.6
July 2019 8,733.7 41,508.7 -32,775.0

#9 | POSTED BY NIXON

China is importing from other sources and exporting to other sources. Their trade surplus has actually improved. They are losing some money but it isn't seriously hurting them at this point.

#15 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-09-12 12:26 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Bull Crap.

#3 | POSTED BY SNIPER

Hold on everybody!

Sniper has informed us that the experts with PhDs and decades of experience and all of the financial numbers backing up their statements are in fact wrong.

Therefore, everything is fine! No recession anywhere!

#16 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-09-12 12:28 PM | Reply

Ok, so every company that starts doing bad is the result of a recession. Got it. What about the companies who are actually doing a lot better because of the trade war? Oh, that doesn't fit your agenda, does it?

It sucks, sure. But that still doesn't justify having other countries take advantage of our economy by unfair trade practices. There is no recession no matter how many of you hate-filled people want there to be. There are some people being impacted negatively and some being impacted positively. So, for the companies being impacted positively, are you saying you want them to not be as prosperous because other companies used to be prosperous? How does that fit in to ANY narrative that is meant to care about people. Liberals just whine about anything that is bad. And if they can't find something bad, they make something up.

#17 | Posted by humtake at 2019-09-12 12:54 PM | Reply

What about the companies who are actually doing a lot better because of the trade war?

#17 | POSTED BY HUMTAKE

Which ones are those? Does the amount they are doing "better" make up for what is lost by the ones that are harmed?

That is why people are posting balance of trade or gdp or manufacturing jobs numbers. Because those numbers should be averaging out the good and the bad (helped and harmed).

So, please... make your argument that this trade war is overall helpful to the US economy.

And I don't want to hear "at least he's trying". You may be willing to give the snowflake-in-chief a participation award, but that is not going to convince me. I want to see the RESULTS that back up your assertion.

#18 | Posted by gtbritishskull at 2019-09-12 01:59 PM | Reply

"So, please... make your argument that this trade war is overall helpful to the US economy."

The best argument is that it will help in the long run.

Doesn't mean that's true...but that's the argument.

www.vox.com

#19 | Posted by eberly at 2019-09-12 02:19 PM | Reply

"the number of people working in factories actually fell in the first seven months of this year due to Trump's trade war."

But black unemployment is still going down.
I'm sure white voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania who lost their jobs won't be at all resentful about that.

#10 | Posted by snoofy

The increase fell sno.

#20 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-12 02:26 PM | Reply

Hold on everybody!

Sniper has informed us that the experts with PhDs and decades of experience and all of the financial numbers backing up their statements are in fact wrong.

Therefore, everything is fine! No recession anywhere!

#16 | Posted by Sycophant

The economy is growing syc. How do you and your experts explain that?

#21 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-12 02:28 PM | Reply

Hold on everybody!
Sniper has informed us that the experts with PhDs and decades of experience and all of the financial numbers backing up their statements are in fact wrong.
Therefore, everything is fine! No recession anywhere!
#16 | Posted by Sycophant
The economy is growing syc. How do you and your experts explain that?
#21 | POSTED BY SNIPER

I honestly can't tell if you are joking or you are just that dumb???

The recession starts in corners of the economy at first and then starts expanding. You don't see loses in every state or sector at once. It starts in certain sectors and certain geographic areas before the entire economy swings into a recession.

And that's precisely what we are seeing. Certain states and certain industries are seeing losses.

Jesus, you act like the entire economy just stops and says "Recession Time!".

Go back to your cartoons.

#22 | Posted by Sycophant at 2019-09-12 06:35 PM | Reply

And if they can't find something bad, they make something up.

#17 | Posted by humtake

Yeah republicans would NEVER do anything like that.

#23 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2019-09-12 07:36 PM | Reply

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