Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, September 13, 2019

Lamplighter: The economy's biggest pillar -- the American shopper -- stood steadfast through a summer of mounting economic challenges characterized by soft global growth and trade uncertainty.

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Blah blah blah lefty yay cheering for some nonsense I made up blah blah blah

-RoC

#1 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-13 01:11 PM | Reply

I believe this is what the BoA CEO was saying/predicting too ...

BofA's CEO Says the Biggest Recession Risk Is the Fear of Recession

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said this week's bond-market turmoil has been driven by issues outside the U.S., and that recession risks are low in the country as consumer spending remains strong.
www.bloomberg.com

#2 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-09-13 01:59 PM | Reply

Of course. I've always thought markets to be interesting examples of herd behavior.

#3 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-13 02:23 PM | Reply

Consumer goods spending is keeping a recession at bay. Larger goods are having difficulties.

Then there's this op-ed:

A Strong U.S. Consumer Is a Lagging Indicator
www.bloomberg.com

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-13 02:35 PM | Reply

Considering what I know of slow downs going on across the board in development for manufacturing - businesses are not confident.

#5 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2019-09-13 02:52 PM | Reply

#4 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER

I wouldn't consider the spending to be strong, just not falling off.

The Baltic Index is gaining strength since the begin of year, its a leading indicator.
www.newyorker.com

#6 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2019-09-14 01:14 AM | Reply

Dems pray for salvation by recession..

#7 | Posted by Greatamerican at 2019-09-14 01:41 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

_________________________________________________________
Yes, "consumer spending" and "consumer confidence" are lagging indicators - you can verify it easily by looking at every recession / slowdown period. It's easy to live on credit, and currently corporations / businesses, governments (federal, in particular) and consumers are borrowing like crazy - just check at trillions of dollars in deficits (and even larger numbers, counting off-budget spending), so it's fun while the low-interest debt/credit-induced party is going on.

There is $17T in negative-rate debt created by the world central banks, and U.S. (Mnuchin) is talking about experimenting with 50-yr and 100-yr bonds, but Treasury is having trouble selling 7-yr bonds, so not likely to have many buyers, especially as most are expecting U.S. bond bubble to burst in next few quarters, as early as Q1 of 2020.

Cracks are already showing in some "industrial" and "farming" parts of the country, even with low "official" unemployment, as well as 3 consecutive months of increases in CPI (the Fed prefers to look at CPE which is lower). Record number of closing retailers and mall stores, as well as slowing hiring and people not counted in labor pool (making labor participation % artificially larger) because of part-time gig economy (this also explains slight increase in female labor participation.

Anyway, both 2000-2001 deep recession and even deeper 2008 Great Recession were preceded by "the best of times" economies with people giddy of flipping stocks or real estate.

There is still too much money sloshing around in the economy, but BoA and other similar charts show that the "Buffett indicator" (ratio of market capitalization to real economy / GDP) is at all-time high, which usually precedes the fall in stock market which precedes loss of confidence and recession.

Happy Halloween party! (or is it too early?)
_________________________________________________________

#8 | Posted by CutiePie at 2019-09-14 05:45 AM | Reply

Dems pray for salvation by recession..

#7 | POSTED BY GREATAMERICAN

Why do you guys lie so much?

#9 | Posted by jpw at 2019-09-14 07:01 AM | Reply

Retail sales were good in August even as concerns over the U.S. economy rose

With every news outlet saying a recession is just around the corner, why would consumers ever be concerned about that? It is a diabolical plot to get rid of Trump just like they did with Bush.

#10 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-14 10:37 AM | Reply

@#10 ... With every news outlet saying a recession is just around the corner, ...

Trump Hits the Panic Button
www.nytimes.com

...But back to the economy. Why is Trump panicking?

After all, while the economy is slowing, we're not in a recession, and it's by no means clear that a recession is even on the horizon.

There's nothing in the data that would justify radical monetary stimulus " stimulus, by the way, that Republicans, including Trump, denounced during the Obama years, when the economy really needed it.

Furthermore, despite Trump's claims that the Fed has somehow done something crazy, monetary policy has actually been looser than Trump's own economic team expected when making their rosy forecasts. ...


#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-14 12:12 PM | Reply

the trillion dollar stimulus was nothing but a conduit to pay-off obummer donors. There were no more highway projects after the stimulus than before. It was a big payoff to the auto unions.

#12 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-14 01:20 PM | Reply

Who's going to stop the never ending bull market?

#13 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2019-09-14 02:26 PM | Reply

Democrats! That's who.

#14 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2019-09-14 02:27 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

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