Yes, "consumer spending" and "consumer confidence" are lagging indicators - you can verify it easily by looking at every recession / slowdown period. It's easy to live on credit, and currently corporations / businesses, governments (federal, in particular) and consumers are borrowing like crazy - just check at trillions of dollars in deficits (and even larger numbers, counting off-budget spending), so it's fun while the low-interest debt/credit-induced party is going on.
There is $17T in negative-rate debt created by the world central banks, and U.S. (Mnuchin) is talking about experimenting with 50-yr and 100-yr bonds, but Treasury is having trouble selling 7-yr bonds, so not likely to have many buyers, especially as most are expecting U.S. bond bubble to burst in next few quarters, as early as Q1 of 2020.
Cracks are already showing in some "industrial" and "farming" parts of the country, even with low "official" unemployment, as well as 3 consecutive months of increases in CPI (the Fed prefers to look at CPE which is lower). Record number of closing retailers and mall stores, as well as slowing hiring and people not counted in labor pool (making labor participation % artificially larger) because of part-time gig economy (this also explains slight increase in female labor participation.
Anyway, both 2000-2001 deep recession and even deeper 2008 Great Recession were preceded by "the best of times" economies with people giddy of flipping stocks or real estate.
There is still too much money sloshing around in the economy, but BoA and other similar charts show that the "Buffett indicator" (ratio of market capitalization to real economy / GDP) is at all-time high, which usually precedes the fall in stock market which precedes loss of confidence and recession.
Happy Halloween party! (or is it too early?)