Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, September 20, 2019

The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations by the most this year, offering a fresh rebuttal to last month's resurgent recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump.



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I don't see a recession coming, but I do see an economic slowdown for a few quarters.

#1 | Posted by goatman at 2019-09-20 12:27 PM | Reply


Currently I would agree.

A recession has a precise definition, and we're not close to hitting that definition yet. Unfortunately, we don't know we are in a recession until we are already in one.

The slowdown is a more nebulous definition, if there is a precise definition at all.

Consumer spending has been powerful. Big equipment spending less so, some might say a lot less so. Housing is doing pretty well.

An interesting dichotomy is the combination of low unemployment and low inflation that we currently have.

Retailers are lowering profits in order to keep prices low ahead of the all important holiday season (possibly why consumer retail spending is going so strongly). Will those lower prices result in lower earnings and the subsequent cutback of employees after the holiday season?

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-20 01:08 PM | Reply

More info...

Two U.S. Swing States Lost the Most Factory Jobs in Past Year

The consumer retail spending that is doing so well involves many goods made outside the US (China?). That is why Pres Trump delayed some tariffs until after the holiday shopping season.

But US-based manufacturing seems to have hit a speed bump.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-20 01:13 PM | Reply

There was a thread on transportion stocks being a bellwether of the economy and they are currently falling slightly. I do believe this is true since movement of goods is an indicator of the economy.

The only weak part of this bellwether is that it does not, can not, indicate the service sector which often offers surprises. If we see a good healthy holiday season (purchasing and travel) I think we will pull through another year of fair, if not good economic data. A bad or poor holiday seanson, I feel things could get worse in 2020.

#4 | Posted by goatman at 2019-09-20 01:17 PM | Reply

@#4 ... There was a thread on transportion stocks being a bellwether of the economy ...

Yup. That transport stocks (I call them truck and rail stocks) have been one of the things I've always watched.

My leaning currently is towards seeing a good holiday season.

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-20 01:21 PM | Reply

Oh ya, things are going to hell in a hand basket.

Manufacturing Jobs Roaring Back'?
By Eugene Kiely
Posted on January 10, 2018

Vice President Mike Pence touted the latest jobs report as proof that "manufacturing is roaring back." The previous administration made a similar claim, but experts then and now said it's premature to declare a manufacturing renaissance.
The economy added 196,000 manufacturing jobs last year " the most in any year since 2014, when the economy added 208,000 manufacturing jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the manufacturing sector has yet to fully recover from the Great Recession.

#6 | Posted by Sniper at 2019-09-20 01:24 PM | Reply

@#6 ... things are going to hell in a hand basket ...

I'm not sure why you make that assertion, the thread summary and the comments on this thread are distinctly saying the economy is not doing badly at all.

#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2019-09-20 01:29 PM | Reply

#7 Yeah, but Danforth hasn't weighed in yet.

And we all know that he will. Prediction: "The economy is in a tailspin!" - DonkeyDan

#8 | Posted by SheepleSchism at 2019-09-20 05:15 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I think people are just stocking up on the Chinese goods before the tarrifs kick in.

#9 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2019-09-20 07:43 PM | Reply

"I think people are just stocking up on the Chinese goods before the tarrifs kick in.


As long as I can still get me som Dim Sum. I can do without any other Chinese stuff.

#10 | Posted by goatman at 2019-09-20 07:46 PM | Reply

With troops being deployed over the Saudi attack, all bets on a recession are off.. drain that swamp Trump!

"Its a giant sucking sound, Larry"

#11 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2019-09-20 09:11 PM | Reply

The inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1956. 7 recessions.
Hard to dismiss that trend.
If possible, put some cash away and if nothing happens in next 18 months, no harm.

#12 | Posted by Docman at 2019-09-21 10:00 AM | Reply

I agree with Docman here. As an individual, it's time to start preparing for the down-turn. These folks who act flippantly about the recession are not like you and I. They manage billions of dollars and they are playing games where they flip from one style of investing today to another tomorrow. Let's not forget that none of these financial folks can really predict the future. They all get caught with their pants down when the fall comes. Look to real geniuses to see what they're planning. Apple and Berkshire and others are keeping huge reserves of cash. They are preparing for the downturn. What do you have ready for the crash? A new TV? A credit debt? or do you have some cash to invest?

#13 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2019-09-21 11:29 AM | Reply

Hold that recession? There is no recession, and there has been no recession. The only recession there has been has been the media manufactured one that they hoped would materialise if they could just report it into existence. The economy has been doing well under Trump for his entire presidency so far.

#14 | Posted by RobertZeurunkl at 2019-09-21 06:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1


Let's ask the farmers how they are doing.

#15 | Posted by Zed at 2019-09-21 06:58 PM | Reply


Maybe the media manufacturers farmers?

#16 | Posted by Zed at 2019-09-21 07:00 PM | Reply


We'll never see you again, will we?

#17 | Posted by Zed at 2019-09-21 07:04 PM | Reply

As much as I detest the Orange coif, I want our economy to grow. With or without his aid.

#18 | Posted by zelkova at 2019-09-21 07:57 PM | Reply

As much as I detest the Orange coif, I want our economy to grow. With or without his aid.


It had been growing for 8 years before he got here. So I prefer without.

#19 | Posted by WhoDaMan at 2019-09-22 10:54 AM | Reply

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