Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Sunday, March 22, 2020

New York Times: The most extensive travel restrictions to stop an outbreak in human history haven't been enough. We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why. ... By Jan. 31, when the United States announced it would shut down entry from China for non-Americans, travel out of Wuhan had basically stopped. It was too late. Outbreaks were already growing in over 30 cities across 26 countries, most seeded by travelers from Wuhan.

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March 11: In the United States, where testing has lagged, President Trump suspended most travel from Europe. "The virus will not have a chance against us," he said. But by then, the virus had a secure foothold. It continued to spread locally throughout parts of Seattle, New York City and across the country, once again outpacing efforts to stop it.

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If you don't believe travel restrictions will help stop the virus.

Why would you believe "social distancing" would stop the virus?

#1 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2020-03-22 10:31 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Travel restrictions can help, but wont help enough.
Testing, tracing and isolation are required once the virus has got a foothold.

Trump was not effective.

#2 | Posted by bored at 2020-03-22 10:56 AM | Reply

If you don't believe travel restrictions will help stop the virus.
Why would you believe "social distancing" would stop the virus?

#1 | POSTED BY ANDREAMACKRIS

Travel restrictions won't work because it's already here. It was already here when they were enacted.

Social distancing stops spread from person to person. With the appalling lack of testing it's impossible to know right now if you've been exposed to somebody who's positive, so by social distancing you're assuming everybody around you could be contagious.

Basically, one would only work if there wasn't any cases in the US (there was, hence it's ineffectiveness), the other works because it's aimed at slowing spread when it's here.

Get an adult to explain it to you if you're confused.

#3 | Posted by jpw at 2020-03-22 11:01 AM | Reply

Nothing is going to "stop"the virus. Eventually everyone will get it and many people will die.
The survivors will gradually acquire immunity to the virus for at least some period of time.
Over many years it will become less dangerous.
This one happens to be new,which makes it Exceptionally dangerous and unpredictable.
We are facing a new world ahead. No one really knows what the other side will be.
That's why Trump and all the other leaders seem so clueless and overwhelmed, because they are.

#4 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-03-22 11:02 AM | Reply

Why would you believe "social distancing" would stop the virus?

Every virus has an R0 (R-nought) value that reflects the average number of people an infected person spreads the virus to. Coronavirus is currently around 2.2.

If you can get the R0 to under 1, the virus begins to die out.

If you can't get down to 1, but you can get the R0 significantly lower, the virus spreads more slowly and hospital systems are at less risk of being overwhelmed and choosing which patients get a ventilator and have a chance and which don't get one and die.

Social distancing is an attempt to slow down the virus enough that our health providers can handle the people who get sick. Without it, there are places in America that will become another Italy, where 793 people died of coronavirus Saturday.

P.s. I'm not an expert. You can read the latest from epidemiologists, doctors and other experts here:

Epidemic Science & Health

#5 | Posted by rcade at 2020-03-22 11:32 AM | Reply

Travel restrictions only work if the infected area discloses the virus. By the time that news of the virus got out of China, more than 5,000,000 people had traveled to and from Wuhan.

#6 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-22 11:50 AM | Reply

China made a huge mess of things, but in this hyper-connected world it was probably inevitable a virus this contagious was going to spread beyond its country of origin. Disaster scenarios have been presented by experts to our presidents for a long time.

South Korea and the U.S. had their first case on the same day. They were prepared with testing and tracing to keep it from growing exponentially. We weren't.

If you're only talking about China's mistakes and not U.S. mistakes, you're ignoring the part of the story that has the most impact on our lives and economy.

#7 | Posted by rcade at 2020-03-22 11:57 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Nothing is going to "stop"the virus. Eventually everyone will get it and many people will die.

It's not impossible to stop the virus. Look at China and South Korea and see how much they've slowed it down:

www.worldometers.info

www.worldometers.info

#8 | Posted by rcade at 2020-03-22 12:05 PM | Reply

You guys should all watch contagion while you're sitting home this week.

#9 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-03-22 12:08 PM | Reply

If you're only talking about China's mistakes and not U.S. mistakes, you're ignoring the part of the story that has the most impact on our lives and economy.

I am not excusing or ignoring mistakes made by the Trump administration, but arguing travel restrictions are ineffective without acknowledging the delay in China disclosing the virus misses the forest for the trees, as most countries did not institute travel bans until after the US banned travel from China on January 31.

#10 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-22 12:26 PM | Reply

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Fat Andy proving once again he's dumber than a bag of hammers.
Self quarantining won't be an issue for him as I doubt he's left his fathers basement in years.

#11 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2020-03-22 12:42 PM | Reply

For how long have they "shut it down"? Maybe they have,I hope so. My guess is that this ------ will roll in waves, it's going to be a long summer. Fall will bring new eruptions of death and disease. Many will die. Many will go bankrupt. Better prepare emotionally for what is coming. False hope is no savior here.
Panic is equally useless and counterproductive.

#12 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-03-22 12:50 PM | Reply

Trump was praising Chinese leader Xi Jinping for his handling of the coronavirus only six weeks ago:

"Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the coronavirus. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!"

www.nationalreview.com

We didn't just discover this week that China made mistakes. The broad picture was clear six weeks ago. What Trump praised China for then he's condemning now.

#13 | Posted by rcade at 2020-03-22 12:52 PM | Reply

Ultimately this ------ is here to stay. Like malaria, influenza, tuberculosis, part of the ecology. We are going to have to adapt to its permanent presence. This does not mean the end of everything,just that life will never be quite the same again. Like since Aids appeared,or syphlis in the 15th century.
With any luck, the virulent phase will be short and it will become widespread but not very dangerous in a fairly short time.
ONE CAN ONLY HOPE.

#14 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-03-22 12:59 PM | Reply

Stop the spread, no it will not, but it would help limit the spread.

#15 | Posted by MSgt at 2020-03-22 01:06 PM | Reply

You guys should all watch contagion while you're sitting home this week.

#9 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

Probably the best "outbreak" movie ever made.

Although it's based on Nipah IIRC. A very different animal.

#16 | Posted by jpw at 2020-03-22 01:45 PM | Reply

FWIW, I thought Contagion was a well-done, scientifically accurate movie.

It's worth a watch.

#17 | Posted by contrecoup at 2020-03-22 02:13 PM | Reply

Re 17

True dat.

I wanted to watch it again

Just tried to download it from amazon. Getting an error.

It's getting blocked. Or they ran out of downloads.

Whatever.

#18 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-03-22 06:44 PM | Reply

LOL good thing I have it on DVD.

Think I'll watch it tonight.

Freak my wife out.

#19 | Posted by jpw at 2020-03-22 08:32 PM | Reply

#12 | Posted by Effeteposer

I agree. There will likely be at least a second wave. We aren't China or Korea. The people obey there. And at least in China if they don't, well...

#20 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2020-03-22 08:45 PM | Reply

#14 | Posted by Effeteposer

Unless it mutates quickly enough I doubt it. It is more likely to be like H1N1 - here and gone. Especially if there is a vaccine developed and delivered.

#21 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2020-03-22 08:46 PM | Reply

If you don't believe travel restrictions will help stop the virus.
Why would you believe "social distancing" would stop the virus?

#1 | POSTED BY ANDREAMACKRIS

Nothing is going to stop the virus. It is almost twice as contagious as the flu (R0 value). We can only hope to slow it down to try not to overwhelm our healthcare system.

And our confirmed cases are 2-3 weeks behind what is actually the case (incubation period + time to show symptoms + time to get tested). 2-3 weeks ago Trump was still telling his whole high risk (old and unhealthy) base that this was a hoax. We are F'd.

As I have said before, the human cost will be tragic. I do not celebrate the deaths that will occur. But the silver lining is the political darwinism. The fact that it will hit conservatives harder (and kill more of them) because they were stupid enough to believe Trump when he said that it was "no worse that the flu" and a "liberal hoax" is in a way good because maybe it will make us better prepared next time (because there are less idiots electing idiots).

It is rich now hearing all the conservatives whine and complain about the millennials going to bars or going to the beach and how "selfish" they are, when it is the same conservatives who have been downplaying the virus from the beginning for political reasons (because they are all Trump sycophants).

#22 | Posted by gtbritishskull at 2020-03-22 11:07 PM | Reply

If you don't believe travel restrictions will help stop the virus.
Why would you believe "social distancing" would stop the virus?
#1 | POSTED BY ANDREAMACKRIS

Stop the virus from doing what?
Infecting me?

You're really this stupid, aren't you?

#23 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-03-22 11:09 PM | Reply

Unless it mutates quickly enough I doubt it. It is more likely to be like H1N1 - here and gone. Especially if there is a vaccine developed and delivered.

#21 | POSTED BY GALAXIEPETE

Ummm H1N1 followed the 1918 pattern-smaller outbreak in spring and resurgence in the fall.

And that was with a rapid vaccine development owing to it being influenza.

Not going to happen with this one.

#24 | Posted by jpw at 2020-03-23 12:29 AM | Reply

>Why Travel Restrictions Didn't Stop the Virus
ongoing case study: muh RUSSIA

#25 | Posted by berserkone at 2020-03-23 01:52 AM | Reply

It appears that SARS was global and crossed multiple species in many environments. Coronavirus seems to be equally strategic in its virulence.

This thing must have been spreading for several weeks prior to China even mentioning it.

#26 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2020-03-24 05:42 AM | Reply

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