Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Monday, March 23, 2020

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths. This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don't support such a dire scenario " especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

"What we need is to control the panic," he said. In the grand scheme, "we're going to be fine."

Advertisement

More

Alternate links: Google News | Twitter

He analyzed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 new cases of COVID-19 every day and sees "signs of recovery" in many of them. He's not focusing on the total number of cases in a country, but on the number of new cases identified every day " and especially on the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.

"Numbers are still noisy but there are clear signs of slowed growth."

Comments

Admin's note: Participants in this discussion must follow the site's moderation policy. Profanity will be filtered. Abusive conduct is not allowed.

Take a deep breath, so long as we stay at home and practice social distancing, we are going to be fine.

#1 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-23 02:20 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I am also seeing some people saying that the economy may recover more quickly than expected. But they quickly add the caveat that we're on new ground in the economy arena.

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-03-23 02:24 PM | Reply

"I am also seeing some people saying that the economy may recover more quickly than expected.
#2 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER "

I think it will. The American economy is quite resilient. People underestimate that.

#3 | Posted by goatman at 2020-03-23 02:30 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#2

Agreed. I spent almost 2 hours on a conference call yesterday with about 100 lawyers and investment bankers that was set up by one of (if not the) largest investment banking firms and they say that once the Senate gets off their collective asses in the next day or two and finalizes the latest relief package that the markets should start to recover.

#4 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-23 02:31 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I trust Mr. Levitt.

The Donohue-Levitt hypothesis is also damn convincing.

Thank you for posting, ROC.

#5 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-03-23 02:38 PM | Reply

Over 100,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus around the world
www.newsweek.com

#6 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-03-23 02:43 PM | Reply

"especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place."

Which is what the experts were calling for, and it is working. Lying that it will go away in April or stopping flights from China did not work.

#7 | Posted by bored at 2020-03-23 03:12 PM | Reply

@#4 ... the markets should start to recover. ...

The markets are not the economy.

That aside..

My concern about the speed of the recovery for the economy is that the economic crisis is global, and it is severe globally.

Global economic crises tend to take longer to rebound.

But as I said above, this one is breaking new ground...

#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-03-23 03:23 PM | Reply

The markets are not the economy.

But they are a barometer for the economy.

#9 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-23 03:25 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The markets are not the economy.

Agreed, but its part of the economy, and it is used as a gauge, much like temperature isn't the weather.

My concern about the speed of the recovery for the economy is that the economic crisis is global, and it is severe globally.

Is it global crisis? Better check your facts... certainly certain parts are constrained, but many parts of the world are handling this sanely, and effectively, other parts of the economy are growing during this crisis.

My only concern is American small business. The many laid off, this isn't a problem yet as they will get unemployment. But firing up all those businesses again will be difficult.

Its interesting how everything is linked, like the enable bicycles, then bicycle shops, then you need tools for the shop ... and on it goes.

#10 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2020-03-23 03:31 PM | Reply

Advertisement

Advertisement

"The markets are not the economy...unless they are going down and I can use it as an excuse to piss and moan about Trump"

ft

#11 | Posted by eberly at 2020-03-23 03:34 PM | Reply

"The markets are not the economy... unless they are going up and I can use it as an excuse to gloat and showboat"
--Trump

#12 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-03-23 03:41 PM | Reply

Nobody knows how this is gonna go. It's all happy talk to stop the panic. I don't believe any of it.
They will say night is day and up is down to keep people calm. Take it with several tons of salt.

#13 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-03-23 03:49 PM | Reply

Whoops, got my Levitt's confused.

#14 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-03-23 03:52 PM | Reply

Where are all of you poor douchebags putting these groceries? You have one toilet, at most. How are you -------- so much?

#15 | Posted by 101Chairborne at 2020-03-23 03:56 PM | Reply

I appreciate the optimistic forecast

#16 | Posted by GOnoles92 at 2020-03-23 03:57 PM | Reply

Where are all of you poor douchebags putting these groceries? You have one toilet, at most. How are you -------- so much?
#15 | POSTED BY 101CHAIRBORNE

All I have to do is eat, drink, and ----.

I ran out of toilet paper two days ago. Been wiping with my left and eating with my right. It's not ideal, but it's also not the end of the world.

#17 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-03-23 04:00 PM | Reply

Take a deep breath, so long as we stay at home and practice social distancing, we are going to be fine.

It's too soon to say that. Epidemiologists aren't saying that social distancing will stop the pandemic. They're hoping it will slow it down and will flatten the curve.

A lot of America isn't social distancing very well at the moment either.

#18 | Posted by rcade at 2020-03-23 05:57 PM | Reply

"I appreciate the optimistic forecast"

I honestly find it counterproductive.

#19 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-03-23 06:00 PM | Reply

A lot of America isn't social distancing very well at the moment either.

#18 | POSTED BY RCADE AT 2020-03-23 05:57 PM

That's true and according to other LA Times articles it is mostly the 18-25 demographic.

Hopefully they are staying away from at risk people, but they are probably too dumb to realize that may be an issue.

#20 | Posted by Rightocenter at 2020-03-23 06:20 PM | Reply

What's his prediction on whether or not the coronavirus will turn out to be seasonal and come back "bigly" in the fall?:

"Of course, recovering from an initial outbreak doesn't mean the virus won't come back: China is now fighting to stop new waves of infection coming in from places where the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries are bound to face the same problem as well."

#21 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-03-23 06:32 PM | Reply

We're f**ked. This thing could become endemic. Especially with the piss poor response we've had to it so far. If Trump get his way and Everything opens back up too soon we could be seeing waves of infection and mass deaths for YEARS.

#22 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-03-24 12:54 PM | Reply

Take a deep breath, so long as we stay at home and practice social distancing, we are going to be fine.

#1 | POSTED BY RIGHTOCENTER AT 2020-03-23 02:20 PM | REPLY | FLAG:

Trump and GOP are ending that in mid April.

So we'll see it get get closer to the worst case scenario.

Do your best not to die.

#23 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-03-25 11:44 AM | Reply

Take a deep breath, so long as we stay at home and practice social distancing, we are going to be fine.

#1 | POSTED BY RIGHTOCENTER AT 2020-03-23 02:20 PM | FLAG: | NEWSWORTHY

The Coronavirus isn't what's about to kill us.

It's the staying at home part that's about to implode the house of cards we call America.

Most people dont have 2 nickels to rub together. Our corporations are no better off either. Shotgunning 2 trillion dollars into the economy is the next wave of devastation called inflation.

In a year or so we'll be looking at $15 hamberders and cheap beer at $40 a case.

#24 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2020-03-25 01:25 PM | Reply

And no one saw it coming? We've known for a long time that living on the edge would finally catch up to us.

I dont need or want a dime from our government. Why? Because I sacrificed having all the new shiny stuff and invested/saved instead.

#25 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2020-03-25 01:31 PM | Reply

Comments are closed for this entry.

Home | Breaking News | Comments | User Blogs | Stats | Back Page | RSS Feed | RSS Spec | DMCA Compliance | Privacy | Copyright 2020 World Readable

Drudge Retort