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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, April 03, 2020

Vox does a deep dive on why the death rates differ so widely in different places: "Some countries, such as Germany, have a fatality rate of approximately 1 percent of confirmed cases, whereas Italy's rate has climbed above 11 percent. Even within the US, large differences are emerging: As of April 1, Louisiana had reported a CFR of 4.2 percent, one of the highest in the nation, compared to California's 2.1 percent."

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The statistical death rates will have to be calculated without complete data through the use of predictive models.

Many infected people will never be tested nor counted, and many dead - who were infected but untested - will not be counted in the totals either.

Statistical tabulations right now should only be used as illustrators of trends, not scientifically accurate representations to draw conclusions from imo.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-04-03 02:25 PM | Reply

I suspect the death rates for infection are similar, but the testing protocols are very different, which skew results.

#2 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-03 02:25 PM | Reply

I suspect Federal leadership.

#3 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-03 02:26 PM | Reply

I have to wonder if it's at least not partially due to lifestyle.

When the Germans aren't drinking, smoking, and eating huge portions of french fries and fried pork cutlets, they're out wandering around the forest or riding bikes. Even the older people in Germany are very active. I've not seen reporting to suggest that physical fitness is anyway able to offset getting sick, but this is definitely one of most stark differences I've noticed between people in the US and people in Germany.

#4 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-04-03 02:57 PM | Reply

Republican states tend to have worse access to health care, older populations, and higher levels of pre-existing conditions the Virus affects.

Many such states are also refusing state wide shelter in place orders. Arizona and Florida come to mind.

Republican states will be harder hit and many will buckle.

While I hear the response that sparsely populated states will be less effected, the issues above and the fact this virus tends to be infectious a week before symptoms appear makes this unlikely to significantly reduce the damage the virus will do to smaller states.

#5 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-04-03 02:59 PM | Reply

The article also points out the fact that the CFR in Louisiana is twice that of California. I've lived in both states. California was always a nice place to get outdoors and wander around. When I lived in Louisiana, my outdoor activities were limited to a morning run, and getting the ski boat out. Other than that, there's really not much incentive to go outside.

#6 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-04-03 03:00 PM | Reply

Is Germany counting in their Coronavirus deaths fatalities with pre-existing condition? Other nations are.

#7 | Posted by CrisisStills at 2020-04-03 05:55 PM | Reply

I've not seen reporting to suggest that physical fitness is anyway able to offset getting sick, but this is definitely one of most stark differences I've noticed between people in the US and people in Germany.

#4 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

It would mean better cardiovascular and pulmonary health in those populations and, likely, better chances for a positive outcome.

The case fatality rate in the US (so far) is less than that of Italy. Significantly.

#8 | Posted by jpw at 2020-04-04 11:45 AM | Reply

"It would mean better cardiovascular and pulmonary health in those populations and, likely, better chances for a positive outcome."

It makes sense, but I haven't seen any subject matter experts making that argument, and I'm not a doctor. So I'm only guessing.

"The case fatality rate in the US (so far) is less than that of Italy. Significantly."

Someone explained this away as Italy having a lot of old people. I've also heard that the strain in Italy and Spain are different than what's being seen in the US.

#9 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-04-04 12:08 PM | Reply

"Is Germany counting in their Coronavirus deaths fatalities with pre-existing condition? Other nations are."

Does it matter?

Germany is still at less than a 1% mortality rate. It would seem to me that pre-existing conditions would only become relevant if your mortality rate was on the right hand side of the bell curve. And then only if the country had a higher than average rate of people with pre-existing conditions.

#10 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-04-04 12:11 PM | Reply

I wonder if the virus has a greater impact on certain genotypes. We won't figure that out until the crisis is passed, but I wonder.

#11 | Posted by MUSTANG at 2020-04-04 02:01 PM | Reply

#11 Some young people die, some very old live. It does seem that people are affected quite differently, which does point to their immune memory or genetic make up.

But death rates stats will be biased by who is tested. It will take months to get the truth.

#12 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-04 02:43 PM | Reply

It makes sense, but I haven't seen any subject matter experts making that argument, and I'm not a doctor. So I'm only guessing.

Me either.

But listed comorbidities are all about poor cardiovascular and pulmonary health (high prevalence in old age likely explains high mortality in seniors).

Other than explicit cardiovascular disease there's COPD or decreased pulmonary function (obvious), hypertension, diabetes (associated with poor cardiovascular health), obesity (see diabetes).

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Multiple people have asked me if smoking is a risk factor. Apparently it is.

www.lung.org

They say there's no specific study...yet, but it's a good assumption that smoking will increase risk of symptomatic disease.

#13 | Posted by jpw at 2020-04-04 03:59 PM | Reply

"Is Germany counting in their Coronavirus deaths fatalities with pre-existing condition? Other nations are."
Does it matter?
Germany is still at less than a 1% mortality rate. It would seem to me that pre-existing conditions would only become relevant if your mortality rate was on the right hand side of the bell curve. And then only if the country had a higher than average rate of people with pre-existing conditions.

In Germany: In hospital with Pneumonia + then gets Coronavirus and dies = 0

Spain: In hospital with Pneumonia + then gets Coronavirus and dies = 1

#14 | Posted by CrisisStills at 2020-04-05 04:37 AM | Reply

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