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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Monday, April 27, 2020

Cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States have surpassed 1 million with more than 56,000 deaths. According to Worldometers, as of Monday afternoon,

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So 500,000 dead by the time we are done?

#1 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-27 07:54 PM | Reply

Don't scare the Republicans with all your fancy math, Bored!

#2 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-27 07:55 PM | Reply

Trump 2020!

Only 100k killed by pandemic in his first term!

#3 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-04-27 08:04 PM | Reply

That's a lot of winning. Soooooo much winning. I'm tired of winning. I can't take anymore winning.

#4 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2020-04-27 08:28 PM | Reply

Womp womp.

They were going to die anyway. They all got upgraded to heaven.

There are better things than living you know! (At least in Texas anyway)

#5 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-04-27 08:52 PM | Reply

The US has about one third of the world's confirmed cases and about one quarter of the deaths from COVID19. We are 4.25% of the world's population.

Great job!

#6 | Posted by WhoDaMan at 2020-04-27 09:34 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"So 500,000 dead by the time we are done?
#1 | POSTED BY BORED "

My guess is 75,000-90,000 based on the current guidelines of grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself. I would place the true deaths at about 45,000-50,000 when it is all said and done. Your guess is 10x that. I would like to check back in with you in a couple of months to see who is closer to reality, I think you will be embarrassed to revisit this post.

#7 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-27 09:46 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

@#5 ... There are better things than living you know! (At least in Texas anyway) ...

It still amazes me (and not in a good way) that a public figure would take that tack in a public statement.

#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-04-27 10:00 PM | Reply

My guess is 75,000-90,000 based on the current guidelines of grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself. I would place the true deaths at about 45,000-50,000 when it is all said and done. Your guess is 10x that. I would like to check back in with you in a couple of months to see who is closer to reality, I think you will be embarrassed to revisit this post.

#7 | POSTED BY CENTERWING

Kinda doubt it. If anything, there is a tremendous undercount of CV-related deaths due to a dearth of testing and all those who've died at home and were never tested at all. You don't actually die of CV, you die from another ailment that CV exacerbated.

As a matter of math, the US has still not reached the apex of our first curve - which means that even now, we're yet to hit the halfway point. And since we're relaxing social distancing standards somewhat by restarting economic activity, it's likely that we'll see other spikes in the near future and at minimum the down curve on the backside of the arc will likely have more deaths than the front side since it won't drop as steeply as it climbed.

As you say, we can check back in one month. If I'm right, it will unfortunately be over 100K by then according to our trendings.

#9 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-04-27 10:27 PM | Reply

"based on the current guidelines of grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself."

What u talkin bout, Willis?

#10 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-27 10:34 PM | Reply

"My guess is 75,000-90,000 based on the current guidelines of grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself. I would place the true deaths at about 45,000-50,000 when it is all said and done."

My guess is that it closer to 75,000 right now.

First all data we have has a built in lag of almost 2 weeks.

And we are not testing properly. The tests are not available yet they are not reliable not fast enough not everyone is being tested that needs testing and the tests have a 20-30% error rate.

#11 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-04-27 10:37 PM | Reply

'As a matter of math, the US has still not reached the apex of our first curve - which means that even now, we're yet to hit the halfway point."

That is your assumptions and I completely disagree with it. Outside of the horrid response by NYC metro area, the US death rates has been pretty good by international standards and we are already likely approach herd immunity with the latest NYC study pointing to 25% of people having antibodies already. Death rates have already been halved from the peak mainly driven by herd immunity stopping the NYC metro area contagion.

www.worldometers.info

"And since we're relaxing social distancing standards somewhat by restarting economic activity, it's likely that we'll see other spikes in the near future"

This is an assumption on your part and I disagree with it. My assumption is that the virus is much more widespread and most of the people at high risk have already succumbed to it (mainly nursing homes). Outside of San Francisco, we don't have the same issue with cramped people living in big city squalor taking the same metro lines.

"As you say, we can check back in one month. If I'm right, it will unfortunately be over 100K by then according to our trendings.
#9 | POSTED BY TONYROMA "

Correct. So, easy to play Monday morning QB in a short amount of time. But the models have been wrong at every turn this far so I don't expect them to magically start working now.

#12 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-27 10:44 PM | Reply

""based on the current guidelines of grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself."
What u talkin bout, Willis?
#10 | POSTED BY SNOOFY"

Have you even followed the data? I suggest that you understand how the data was collected prior to trying to draw conclusions from it. I am linking the WAPO for this one. You will note that 3,700 of the 10,000 NY deaths are simply suspected and not confirmed by a positive test. Not only do our states count using different methods, but whole countries collect the statistics differently, notably Germany, where deaths outside hospitals are not counted at all. This is a pretty key point. Frankly, it is shocking that you are participating in this thread without this basic understanding.

I will check back in a few days so you lot can take some time to actually read up on the topic.

www.washingtonpost.com
"Colorado, by contrast, has included some deaths where the disease caused by the novel coronavirus was deemed probable " based on symptoms and possible exposure " but not confirmed through a test.
...
The scale of undercounting that may result from tallying only lab-confirmed cases was made clear Tuesday when New York City authorities began reporting the deaths of people who were suspected of having covid-19 but never tested. The city's tally soared past 10,000 as the change added more than 3,700 fatalities."

#13 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-27 10:51 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I'm thinking like the death rate is close to double.
Red states are fudging their numbers so they don't look as bad and can re-open quicker.
The Fecal matter is really going to hit the fan here real soon in red states with idiot governors. See Texas, Georgia, South Dakota
Etc etc.

#14 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2020-04-27 10:51 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

I've figured out how to solve this problem with little to no bloodshed.

But the politicians are cowards and so are the voters.

I've spent decades ready for this while others have lived recklessly.

The time has come for the masses to pay the piper.

www.youtube.com

#15 | Posted by Tor at 2020-04-27 10:53 PM | Reply

5.6% death rate is serious. These numbers are appalling. All those people were alive two months ago. Sickening, way faster than Vietnam.

#16 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-04-27 10:56 PM | Reply

Could be half a million by the fall. After that?

Who knows?

#17 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-04-27 11:01 PM | Reply

Don't forget to count those who died because of the lack of hospital services due to the overload on the system, i.e, heart attacks.

#18 | Posted by WhoDaMan at 2020-04-28 12:59 AM | Reply

"You will note that 3,700 of the 10,000 NY deaths are simply suspected and not confirmed by a positive test."

^
This is not the same as what you claimed, which was obviously a blatant lie.

#19 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-28 01:06 AM | Reply

"Don't forget to count those who died because of the lack of hospital services due to the overload on the system, i.e, heart attacks.
#18 | POSTED BY WHODAMAN"

Which hospitals were those? The same ones denying covid patients respirators and ICU beds? In case you missed it, we never had a run on our hospitals. The US Navy ships ran at 5% of capacity and the emergency hospitals constructed in Washington State were completely unused.

"This is not the same as what you claimed, which was obviously a blatant lie.
#19 | POSTED BY SNOOFY "

It is exactly what I claimed. In addition, the federal guidelines are to count every death of a person that tests positive for covid as a covid death regardless of if covid was the cause of death or not. So, we have 2 totally subjective measures inflating the numbers. This is exactly what I stated and linked to for you from one of your own left wing MSM sources.

#20 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 01:44 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

"It is exactly what I claimed."

No it's not, you claimed "grouping everything as a covid death even in the absence of the virus itself."
They're untested. That's not the same as absence of the virus itself. It's merely the absence of a positive test.
Sounds like it's hard for you to understand why testing is being prioritized for the living over the dead, when test resources are limited.

#21 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-28 01:47 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"In addition, the federal guidelines are to count every death of a person that tests positive for covid as a covid death regardless of if covid was the cause of death or not."

Can I see these guidelines, and since they're just guidelines, can I also see who's adhering to them, as well as what other standards are out there?
Thanks.

#22 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-28 01:49 AM | Reply

"They're untested. That's not the same as absence of the virus itself."

They can be untested or test negative and still be counted based on symptoms. Again, have you even done basic research on this topic?

"Can I see these guidelines, and since they're just guidelines
#22 | POSTED BY SNOOFY"

I don't see the point as you are not here to educate yourself on the topic but in case you are being honest: www.cdc.gov

#23 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 01:54 AM | Reply

www.cdc.gov

LOL
Google search for site:www.cdc.gov
About 244,000 results (0.22 seconds)

Was there a particular one you had in mind, or are we on a fishing trip now?

#24 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-04-28 02:34 AM | Reply

"I'm thinking like the death rate is close to double.
Red states are fudging their numbers so they don't look as bad and can re-open quicker.

#14 | POSTED BY ABORTED_MONSON "

This is an incredible claim to make. Do you have evidence to support it?

#25 | Posted by rjm53 at 2020-04-28 02:50 AM | Reply

#7 You think we will be done with Covid in a couple of months?

My estimate is based on a couple of assumptions. Covid death rate is 0.5% and infections will stop at 30% of the population. 330 million x 0.3 x 0.05 = 500k.

New York has 10k covid tested or suspected dead out of 20 million, so 0.5% death rate seems low. The 3700 suspected covid deaths are based on the number of above average deaths that were not tested. Unless you have another explanation for the spike in deaths that correlates with the covid spike, I think it is safe to include these as covid related.

New Zealand, which has locked down hard, is essentially free of Covid, but their population has almost no immunity, so they will have to maintain quarantine for visitors until a vaccine is available.
The US has no discipline, so the spread of Covid won't be stopped, until near herd immunity or a vaccine is widely used.

I expect 200k by the fall and 400k by spring.

#26 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-28 02:51 AM | Reply

330 million x 0.3 x 0.005 = 500k.

#27 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-28 02:54 AM | Reply

I'm thinking the 18 month timeline is going to be more accurate, and more helpful to consider, than not.

#28 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-04-28 02:56 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

My Lord you people need help with the most basic things.

"New York has 10k covid tested or suspected dead out of 20 million, so 0.5% death rate seems low."

10,000 / 20,000,000 = 0.05%, not 0.5%. With 25% coming back positive for antibodies, the worst case scenario assuming 100% infection rate would be 0.05% * 4 = 0.2%. No way do we get anywhere near that.

"I expect 200k by the fall and 400k by spring.
#26 | POSTED BY BORED"

I think your guesses are worth about as much the models predicting 2-4M dead from covid a month ago. We are already peaked and are on the downside of the curve. Rural communities are not going to be hit hard by this and NYC has taught the public what not to do as far as containment efforts go. We may hit a high of 100,000 over the lifetime of this virus.

#29 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 03:03 AM | Reply

"I'm thinking the 18 month timeline is going to be more accurate, and more helpful to consider, than not.
#28 | POSTED BY RSTYBEACH11 "

Unless recovering from this virus offers no immunity, we are already on the downside of this. We can see this in the falling death rates. If we were to go back on find a bunch of deaths earlier than expected because of lack of testing, it would just further confirm that we are already on the downside as every death that can be counted as covid now is being counted.

#30 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 03:05 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Dude, you're delusional. Seek help. What's gonna happen to the virus? It's just gonna vanish like the ------ on All Saints Morn? Maybe. But that seems like the most wishful thinking I've ever heard.

Reality says multiple waves of lethal illness and many deaths in a short span of time.
This will continue for several seasons.

#31 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-04-28 03:13 AM | Reply

#29 The models predicting 2 million dead were based on the assumption of no social isolation and letting the virus spread like wildfire. That was the motivation to do social isolation.

Unfortuately, there are lots of covidiots that will not isolate and will spread the virus. New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea all were able to stop the spread with fairly draconian measures. But people in the US would rather have a haircut than stop covid.

I wish I was wrong, but we are not near the peak. BBQ season is coming. Restaurants will open up, Covid will spread everywhere that people travel.

#32 | Posted by bored at 2020-04-28 03:34 AM | Reply

"What's gonna happen to the virus?"

People take normal precautions and a build to herd immunity and it burns itself out, just like every other deadly virus has done. Which is why we are able to have this conversation now.

"Reality says multiple waves of lethal illness and many deaths in a short span of time.
#31 | POSTED BY EFFETEPOSER"

Reality based upon what exactly? Every model has been wrong thus far in terms of projected deaths and the projected infections, which are a magnitude higher than what the modelers had assumed based on antibody tests. At risk groups will need to take precautions until better treatment options are available but your fear is far greater than the threat we face, unless you are an 80 year old morbidly obese 3 pack a day lifelong smoker battling diabetes and COPD.

#33 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 03:35 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

"New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea all were able to stop the spread with fairly draconian measures.
#32 | POSTED BY BORED "

What are you talking about? Taiwan did not have a lockdown and their schools were even still open. Same for South Korea. They controlled the spread by locking down their borders, which we should have done sooner. Unfortunately for them, they are now isolated from the world until we have a cure or treatment or they risk new cases being imported.

#34 | Posted by centerwing at 2020-04-28 03:39 AM | Reply | Funny: 2

They controlled the spread by locking down their borders, which we should have done sooner.

South Korea controlled its spread through aggressive testing and contact tracing, something the U.S. could have done in the same timeframe because both countries discovered their first confirmed case on the same day. They were ready and we weren't. South Korea has had 244 deaths. We've had 56,000.

#35 | Posted by rcade at 2020-04-28 08:56 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

#34 - S. Korea learned their lessons from SARS. RCade already said what they did that was so different than the US. Not to mention we failed horribly with lousy tests, refused to take the WHO tests even with that failure, and the threw our hands up and said "we've lost containment!" We lost more than a month because of a lack of testing, and we're still being lied to about testing from Trump and Pence.

S. Korea and the U.S. had their first COVID-19 cases within 24 hours of each other.
The way both responded is detailed through numerous reporting outlets.
Don't try and reduce this to a partisan talking point about borders or some such nonsense.

#36 | Posted by YAV at 2020-04-28 09:13 AM | Reply

I think you will be embarrassed to revisit this post.

#7 | Posted by centerwing

Will you ever be embarrassed to for your defending of trump during his string of epic screwups and lies?

Have you started injecting lysol yet?

#37 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-04-28 12:10 PM | Reply

Same for South Korea. They controlled the spread by locking down their borders, which we should have done sooner. Unfortunately for them, they are now isolated from the world until we have a cure or treatment or they risk new cases being imported.

#34 | Posted by centerwing

South Korea listened to scientists. The USA listened to reality tv conman with a string of epic failures in every stage of his life.

#38 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-04-28 12:11 PM | Reply

In February, when the federal government had confirmed just 15 cases of the virus, Mr. Trump predicted the number would soon be near "zero."

Another gem from Nostradotard.

#39 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2020-04-28 05:47 PM | Reply

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