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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Hong Kong had just begun letting its guard down in late February when it was hit by a second wave of the novel coronavirus. After a brief period of low case numbers, new infections spiked dramatically, prompting a series of additional stringent restrictions. That second wave now appears to have largely passed.

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There goes the density argument, right out of the window.

#1 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-05 03:22 PM | Reply

And that's almost 10 percent not making it out of hospital yet. Eek.

#2 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-05 03:30 PM | Reply

There goes the density argument, right out of the window.

#1 | POSTED BY BRUCEBANNER AT 2020-05-05 03:22 PM | FLAG:

No it doesn't. It makes a reasonable case for the effectiveness of adaptive behavior and then governmental controls including border sealings and 2 week mandatory quarantines in a moderate Urban density environment.

"While its government systems were late and often imperfect, Hong Kong's tactics became something of a model for the rest of the world. What made the difference, physicians and epidemiologists say, have been Hong Kong citizens themselves." -Gabriel Choi, President of Hong Kong Medical Association

Houston population density: 3,662 sq/mi.
Hong Kong population density: 17,311 sq/mi.
Manhattan population density: 70,826 sq/mi.

#3 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-06 09:32 AM | Reply

The demolished Kowloon btw, which boasted the world's most intense 3,200,000 people/sq-mi density, and apparently has an underground fight scene from that Jean Claude Van Damme documentary Bloodsport.

#4 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-06 10:00 AM | Reply

I don't want to split hairs, so I'll just say that it does mean that you can control the Covid in high desisity populations.

#5 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-06 10:52 AM | Reply

The reason I say this is because there are too many people saying there's nothing we can do to stop this

#6 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-06 10:53 AM | Reply

You're the first person I've ever heard call Hong Kong moderate density. It seems bizarre.

#7 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-06 10:54 AM | Reply

Hong Kong is the 37th most densely populated city on Earth...

#8 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-06 11:00 AM | Reply

I think Sitz might be using the whole territory of HK in the denominator; not just the city limits, so to speak. That would explain the delta between his 17,311 number and 3,200,000 just for Kowloon.

#9 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-05-06 11:05 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Yeah, but there is this:

"This isn't China. This is Las Vegas, Nevada,"

- Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman

#10 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-06 06:54 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#6 we needed people motivated enough to not wait on local and federal government. That's what HK had. Might have something to do with the fact the local government tried to pass that extradition law so the China could disappear and torture HK citizens for thought crimes. Puts peoples action that worked in context.

#11 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-07 08:51 AM | Reply

I think Sitz might be using the whole territory of HK in the denominator; not just the city limits, so to speak.

#9 | POSTED BY SNOOFY AT 2020-05-06 11:05 AM | REPLY | FLAG:

Kowloon is the fun outlier, 50,000 people crammed into 6 acres. You can juggle the numbers. HK City is a bit more dense than Manhattan, but HK is more significantly less dense than NY compared to the city cores. On the curve the metro area density delta is much more significant than the City vs City comparison. Doesn't even matter, none of that "destroys the density argument". The infection rate for density without controls goes up on a dramatic curve before leveling out at the extreme highs. HK is a wonderful illustration of adaptive behavior by people followed later by government controls. What that destroys is the Imperial War Colleges extreme high 2,000,000 deaths without adaptive behavior. People adapt so it was never worth considering in a report.

Why would the people of HK act so differently than New Yorkers? Proximity is an easy one. The impending threat of the local government passing a law so you can be conveniently murdered slave labor in China. Widespread mask ownership after the protests about that political issue.

#12 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-07 09:26 AM | Reply

Also, Kowloon doesn't exist. It was bulldozed. It's a park now.

#13 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-07 09:26 AM | Reply

Can you imagine the level of butthurt the Dems would have if Trump came out and said he is requiring people to stay at home via military oversight and citizens to wear bracelets so their movements can be tracked? There would be no end to the comparison of Jews wearing patches during the Holocaust. But when any other country besides America does it, Dems bring up details like population density in order to try to make it a legit operation that proves our own are incompetent. Funny how either side of the argument to them is an attack on America.

#14 | Posted by humtake at 2020-05-07 09:38 AM | Reply

There goes the density argument, right out of the window.
#1 | POSTED BY BRUCEBANNER AT 2020-05-05 03:22 PM | FLAG:
No it doesn't. It makes a reasonable case for the effectiveness of adaptive behavior and then governmental controls including border sealings and 2 week mandatory quarantines in a moderate Urban density environment.
"While its government systems were late and often imperfect, Hong Kong's tactics became something of a model for the rest of the world. What made the difference, physicians and epidemiologists say, have been Hong Kong citizens themselves." -Gabriel Choi, President of Hong Kong Medical Association
Houston population density: 3,662 sq/mi.
Hong Kong population density: 17,311 sq/mi.
Manhattan population density: 70,826 sq/mi.

#3 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

Wrong.

First, Hong Kong the COUNTRY/TERRITORY has population density of 17,311 per sq/mi. Hong Kong the CITY has a population density of 68,400 per sq/mi. That's 7.5 million people. Manhattan only has 1.6 million people. New York City only has a population density of 26,403 per sq./mi.

Hong Kong the CITY is one of the top ten most densely population cities in the world.

And SITZKRIEG is poster is one of the top ten most dense posters on the Drudge.

Second, you literally just disproved the density argument. With proper government controls, Coronavirus can be contained even in a vastly dense urban environment.

#15 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-07 10:51 AM | Reply

I like how you skipped Manhattan density, which is 66,940 sq/mi. On the curve for infection rates to density HK City & Manhattan are about the same. So put your pipe down for a second. Of course you can control a virus in a dense environment if the population takes adaptive measures immediately. Why did they do it immediately and NY not? Because they are next to the outbreak and don't trust their government. Eventually government followed by travel quarantine, shuttering the local economy, a regional End of Days as a global economic hub since getting in takes 2 weeks quarantine and getting home takes 2 weeks more, etc.

The "density argument" as I understand it is how much to scale controls to low density environments that are far lower on the infection rate curve. If you think it's something else, we're far apart. Houston is more populous than Manhattan by 400,000 people, but very much more dispersed at 3,662 sq/mi, it's far lower on the curve. Are you absolutely insisting that in "proper governmental controls" there should be no consideration whatsoever for population density? Really?

#16 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-05-07 11:28 AM | Reply

I like how you skipped Manhattan density, which is 66,940 sq/mi. On the curve for infection rates to density HK City & Manhattan are about the same. So put your pipe down for a second. Of course you can control a virus in a dense environment if the population takes adaptive measures immediately. Why did they do it immediately and NY not? Because they are next to the outbreak and don't trust their government. Eventually government followed by travel quarantine, shuttering the local economy, a regional End of Days as a global economic hub since getting in takes 2 weeks quarantine and getting home takes 2 weeks more, etc.
The "density argument" as I understand it is how much to scale controls to low density environments that are far lower on the infection rate curve. If you think it's something else, we're far apart. Houston is more populous than Manhattan by 400,000 people, but very much more dispersed at 3,662 sq/mi, it's far lower on the curve. Are you absolutely insisting that in "proper governmental controls" there should be no consideration whatsoever for population density? Really?

#16 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

1.I like how you skipped Manhattan density, which is 66,940 sq/mi.
Manhattan density? You take one of the most dense parts of New York and compare it to the density of the entire city of Hong Kong? Ok, lets compare the most dense portions of each city.

New York high population density area: 66,940 sq/mi.
Hong Kong high population density area: 150,000 sq/mi.

See how dumb you sound now?

2.Why did they do it immediately and NY not? Because they are next to the outbreak and don't trust their government. Eventually government followed by travel quarantine, shuttering the local economy, a regional End of Days as a global economic hub since getting in takes 2 weeks quarantine and getting home takes 2 weeks more, etc.
This is just a lie.
There was no eventually. It was immediate action by Hong Kong leaders and smart action at that. Hong Kong leaders were smart enough to realize this COULD become a serious issue the first few days of January. That's a month before their first Coronavirus death.
The US didn't until after people started dying. The idiot you elected President kept praising China for being transparent and saying the virus would magically go away.
It came down to one difference: Trump versus Smart People.
The US KNEW in January how bad this would be. Trump was brief and ignored it.

3.The "density argument" as I understand it is how much to scale controls to low density environments that are far lower on the infection rate curve.
So you don't understand it. Got it.
The Density Argument is that a higher density should lead to far more infections and deaths all else being equal.
But it didn't because all else wasn't equal. Hong Kong leaders used their brains and listened to experts. Trump didn't at all for over 2 months and then refused to listen when the issue became apparent.

4.Are you absolutely insisting that in "proper governmental controls" there should be no consideration whatsoever for population density? Really?
No, stupid. Why are you even pretending that is the argument?
You argued Hong Kong was a "moderate Urban density environment" and government actions worked there due to a density difference between Houston, Hong Kong and Manhattan. You made this argument because you confused the density of Hong Kong with the density of Hong Kong CITY. And the mistake blew your argument out of the water. Proper government controls could prevent widespread infection and death in both a low density area and a super high density area.
Honestly, I'm not sure I have enough crayons to help you understand this.

Why are you lying about what you said and facts that can be easily googled?

#17 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-08 11:37 AM | Reply

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