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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Nathaniel Lash: America's current [CV] "plateau" isn't good news ... Infections from the earliest-hit metropolitan areas are now spawning outbreaks of their own across the country. The nature of disease transmission demands that public officials be mindful of how outbreaks are progressing in certain areas, not just how the state looks over all.

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State and local leaders shouldn't expect that their epidemics are over just because the state passed an initial peak several weeks ago. Neither should the White House, which is planning to wind down its coronavirus task force.
It's now being reported that Trump has backtracked and will not disband the task force, but the national trend of this pandemic continues to rise if the New York metro area is removed from the graph.

And outbreaks in rural areas of the Midwest and Plains states rise each and every day connected to meat processing facilities, nursing homes, and correctional facilities. Many commenters talk about 'another' spike of viral outbreak coming late summer or into the fall. The graphs are simply showing that our first spike hasn't yet reached its peak, and that by throwing millions of Americans back together again without adequate testing, contact tracing, and separation protocols being in place, the number of infections and deaths will absolutely follow the same upward trend.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-05-06 09:40 AM | Reply

Ahhh. NYC.

I love the pictures from last weekend.

Pictures of NYPD hanging out with WyPpO enjoying the day and also of NYPD clubbing the fcck out of untold numbers of black people for doing the same damned thing.

It's almost time.

The shht is about to come to a head.

#2 | Posted by MrSilenceDogood at 2020-05-06 11:19 AM | Reply

Good article.

It shows quite clearly how the apparent leveling off nationwide may not be what it seems.

It actually is the averaging of the areas coming off early peaks (e.g., New York City) and the areas still climbing to their peaks (e.g., parts of rural America).

What is discouraging is that some of the areas that are still climbing to their peaks are lead by "bent on reopening" governors who want to reopen (or have reopened already) their states, even though they do not yet meet the Trump administration guidelines for reopening.

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-06 03:57 PM | Reply

Donal Trump's quack economist has overfit, err developed a model (using Excel LMAO) that shows coronavirus deaths will be down to zero in less than two weeks.

www.businessinsider.com

#4 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-05-06 08:10 PM | Reply

Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong.

#5 | Posted by sawdust at 2020-05-06 10:00 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong.

#5 | Posted by sawdust at 2020-05-06 10:00 PM | Reply | Flag:

The scientific models have not been wrong, they estimates based on expected behavior. The best-case scenario models showing minimum deaths at 100k to 250k by mid to late summer were based on public mitigation; shelter in place, massive testing/contact tracing program and quarantine of the sick. The red states were either late or ignored mitigation or they were haphazard in implementation, hence we find ourselves near 100k dead by the end of May, months ahead of the projection date and now we're "opening" the economy which means we'll be well past 250k by the end of August.

The University of Washington has adjusted their projection upwards to show twice as many deaths as they previously projected because again they assumed there would be some national mitigation program. The happy-talk projections the Drumpf Regime was using were created by an "economist" and have no basis in science, so you are right about them.

We know that there has been and will be no national testing/contact tracing program because Dotard has dug in his heels. Last I saw we were at 1.2M cases and rising quickly, and we haven't really even begun to test. Some states are trying to accomplish mass testing/contact tracing on their own, but they're still short of the necessary swabs. Now we appear to be trying the Swedish model, so I look for at least half a million or more deaths by the end of summer. Dotard owns these deaths, his stupidity, incompetence, lack of curiosity and sloth has brought this pandemic to our doorstep. The GOP has long said they wanted to cut Social Security and Medicare, they're going to kill off a lot of old people, imagine the savings!

#6 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-05-07 12:09 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#5 | POSTED BY SAWDUST

With over a million cases and tens of thousands of deaths, I'm pretty sure the models are a little more accurate than promises of "close to zero" cases and it'll "go away in April".

#7 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2020-05-07 12:10 AM | Reply

Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong.

#5 | POSTED BY SAWDUST

I think Stormy was 100% right.

It was the worst 90 seconds of her life. And "allowing someone to get away with things that are definitely illegal sets a terrifying precedent for anyone who comes into office after him."

#8 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-07 12:24 AM | Reply

Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong.

#5 | POSTED BY SAWDUST

Don't listen to posters who are always 100% wrong.

#9 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-07 12:24 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#6 | POSTED BY _GUNSLINGER_

I bookmarked this thread so on September 1 I can see if sawdust is still posting here and rub his hose in it.

The average number of deaths per day since May 1 is 1,823. If we stay at that average deaths per day we'll have lost 213,000 more people between now and September 1. A total of about 297,000 people would have died in 7 months.

Yet I'm willing to bet Trumpers will still be here spouting their latest stupidity with the same level of undeserved confidence they've been stating their stupidity with all along.

#10 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-07 12:34 AM | Reply

Yes come to think of it. When has sawdust ever been right?

Of course trolls are not expected to be right about anything.

They are expected to troll. With whatever bait is available.

#11 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-07 12:34 AM | Reply

"I bookmarked this thread so on September 1 I can see if sawdust is still posting here and rub his hose in it."

Unfortunately when we reach 200,000 American deaths I won't have the patience to be nice and rub that hose in it.

l'd probably take that hose and ram it up his .... and .... his .... with it and then l'd whack his .............. and then I'd .......... his skull!

MAGA

#12 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-07 12:41 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong.

All models are 'wrong'. But that doesn't mean we can't learn from them.

#13 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-05-07 12:45 AM | Reply

"Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong."

Don't worry.

No one is using your 100% wrong models except Trumpy because Trumpy always has to Trumpy it up. Maybe he will use his sharpie on them.

Those models that are so wrong that Trumpy has to keep them secret lest everyone in the world make fun of him again like they did when he suggested we all drink disinfectant!!

#14 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-07 12:52 AM | Reply

All models are 'wrong'. But that doesn't mean we can't learn from them.

For example, today I learned from a model that Trump lackey Kevin Hassett is using Excel to fit curves that make the data look good, and Trump is eating it up like he does with KFC.

#15 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-05-07 12:54 AM | Reply

I remember back as a undergrad, messing around with the Excel regressions trying to demonstrate the best fit. The instructors shut that down real quick. It was embarrassing.

#16 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-05-07 12:57 AM | Reply

What's embarrassing is that the White House is staffed with such idiots they're using Excel to make graphs...

#17 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-07 01:07 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"Don't be fooled by the models that have been 100% wrong."

^
Stealth Melania Trump reference.

#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-05-07 02:58 AM | Reply | Funny: 2

When I am reading a paper and notice their figures are done with Excel, I can't help but question the science. I try to ignore it, but it is distracting.

#19 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-05-07 12:06 PM | Reply

Me too. Although if it's a small, not so well funded lab I cut them some slack.

But this is the White House FFS.

#20 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-07 12:45 PM | Reply

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