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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, May 14, 2020

Getting to herd immunity without a vaccine isn't as simple as the idea itself. A number of variables can affect when herd immunity is reached--and what it costs to get there--and they vary depending on the disease. How infectious is the disease? How deadly is it? And how long do people stay immune once they've gotten it? Adjusting any of these variables can drastically change the outcome of this equation. You can probably sense where this is heading ...

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On a related note:

Simply talking in confined environments could lead to coronavirus transmission, researchers say

By using lasers, scientists found that one minute of talking loudly can produce more than 1,000 virus-containing droplets that could linger in the air for over 8 minutes, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

www.msn.com

#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-05-14 06:07 AM | Reply

I've actually listened to Trump supporters telling me that "herd immunity" is the best future for us, I usually just shake my head and walk away but sometimes Their stupidity enrages me and I tell them that "perhaps you don't mind dying for Trump but don't include me in your death cult nor my family." Stay home even though the Republicans want to open up the economy as if there is not still a virus around that can kill us. Don't listen to any Republican today. If they are decent human beings they will have rejected that party already, if they are still members they are your enemy. They value their wealth over your life.

#3 | Posted by danni at 2020-05-14 09:27 AM | Reply

Herd Immunity only works if the antibodies stay in our system a long time and fight off new infections.

We actually aren't sure they do at this point...

#4 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-14 12:42 PM | Reply

They value their wealth over your life.
#3 | Posted by danni

What's new about that? It's why Rs fight any sort of health care for anyone but rich people.

#5 | Posted by SomebodyElse at 2020-05-14 01:46 PM | Reply

... You can probably sense where this is heading ... ...

Yeah.

It is a page-hit attraction article, nothing more, nothing less.

Some grade B writers trying to have to corporation profit upon a brand that was purchased.

What has happened to the Nate Silver's 538 brand since Disney has purchased it?

imo, it has sank. Deeply.

#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 08:10 PM | Reply

#2 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

More self-infatuation, same Ayn Rand stooge.

#8 | Posted by Corky at 2020-05-14 09:05 PM | Reply

"Most of "us" don't need to be saved."

Famous last words.

We'll be sure to etch that on your tombstone.

#9 | Posted by Danforth at 2020-05-14 09:18 PM | Reply

Whew!

A statistics-oriented thread and the august Danforth alias posts, and my comment is not the one taken out.

Whew!

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 09:20 PM | Reply

MFA:

So let's go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.

"That's the cost of getting to 20 percent," said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. "It really illustrates the price you're going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you'll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn't a feasible plan."

#11 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-05-14 09:26 PM | Reply

@#11 ... "That's the cost of getting to 20 percent," ...

Sobering numbers.

Will people listen to science or politics?

That is the question.

Do we want the answer to be given by people whose qualifications are little more than their Constitutional ability to tote their guns into a state capital building, and little else.

Or should we look to the answer to that question be given by those whose life has been focused on this topic?

I fear the answer to that question may kill me.



#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 09:42 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

A great article. i wish every adult American would read it!

#13 | Posted by e1g1 at 2020-05-14 11:16 PM | Reply

#2 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

Dude. The universe is never about you.

Stop thinking it is.

#14 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-15 12:37 AM | Reply

Basic problem. Science hasn't developed vaccines for any Corona virus before, it is very unlikely they will develope on for COVID19 andwe don't know if the disease makes your body develope antibodies that would protect you and even if they do they don't know how long such protection would last.
The concept of herd immunity should not be considered until we have a vaccine and we know how long the antibodies would protect us. Meanwhile we need to focus on prevention, meaning social distancing, masks, face shields, immune system boosters and staying home. These clowns telling us to open the economy aren't going to be out in the economy, no that is just for us little people who don't matter to them. Let me know when Ivanka eats out at Dennys or has a burger at McDonalds. Watch, it will never happen, but they want us to go out and do that which they would never do.

#15 | Posted by danni at 2020-05-15 08:30 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Basic problem. Science hasn't developed vaccines for any Corona virus before,

Incorrect. Multiple experimental vaccines were developed for SARS and MERS but were never commercially developed because the demand wasn't there to make it worth the effort.

That info has been used to develop candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, some of which are already in human trials.

As far as the vaccine is concerned, the questions are whether it induces protective immunity, for how long and is it safe. The protective immunity question is priority because you can fix the time one with booster vaccinations.

Safety we'll know from trials and a concern there is whether vaccination or immunity can cause exacerbated infection upon reinfection. We might figure that out via animal studies.

#16 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-15 10:27 AM | Reply

I hope you are right JPW. A vaccine that works would be an incredible achievement but why hasn't there been a vaccine for HIV? Isn't HIV also a Corona virus?

#17 | Posted by danni at 2020-05-15 11:43 AM | Reply

A vaccine that works would be an incredible achievement but why hasn't there been a vaccine for HIV? Isn't HIV also a Corona virus?

#17 | POSTED BY DANNI

tldr: No. HIV is a type of retrovirus called a lentivirus. Completely different virology and immunology.

Extra if you're interested: Retroviruses are also RNA viruses but with MUCH higher inherent mutation rates. Each round of replication sees, statistically, a change at every position in the genome, so you have a huge cloud of genetic variance that allows for rapid immune escape. Plus, it integrates into the genome, which makes it safe from immune eradication, and can reemerge whenever pressure is relieved (ie stop taking drugs) from a single cell. HIV has an immense list of features that make a vaccine particularly difficult to produce.

#18 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-15 12:09 PM | Reply

Most of "us" don't need to be saved.

Who is "us," exactly?

People who draw a US Government paycheck while goldbricking on drudge all day while receiving socialized healthcare in Germany?

Quite the niche you've found yourself in; I don't think you speak for much of anyone.

#19 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-15 12:29 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#2 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

You can't be saved.

#20 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-15 03:52 PM | Reply

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