Thursday, May 14, 2020
Good Non-Partisan by the numbers discussion of why People might rightly or wrong think Trump will win despite the polls. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden's average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but he's also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.
One huge problem mentioned:
The Approval or Disapproval of Trump is pretty much baked in and doesn't move much no matter what he does.
This would be good news if his approval was higher, but it's not. So it might be nearly impossible for Trump to convince the people who disapprove that they should vote for him.Here's a strange breakdown:
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