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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, May 14, 2020

Good Non-Partisan by the numbers discussion of why People might rightly or wrong think Trump will win despite the polls. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden's average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but he's also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.

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One huge problem mentioned:

The Approval or Disapproval of Trump is pretty much baked in and doesn't move much no matter what he does.

This would be good news if his approval was higher, but it's not. So it might be nearly impossible for Trump to convince the people who disapprove that they should vote for him.

Here's a strange breakdown:

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... If Trump Is Down In Polls, Why Do people think he'll win? ...

Because the purpose of a campaign is to change the polling results.


Campaigns move polls. The polls at the beginning of a campaign are not like the polls at the end of the campaign.
--- Stephanie Kelly, Aberdine Standard Senior Political Analyst


I still give Pres Trump a 60% chance of being re-elected.


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 04:20 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

Trump lost by 3 million votes last time. Polls were likely reflective of that difference leading up to the election.

The electoral college, as we all know, changes things in a dramatic way.

Consequently, folks don't value polls as much as they may have in the past.

#2 | Posted by eberly at 2020-05-14 04:32 PM | Reply

Trump sold his soul to the dark Lord Lucifer. He will win because he's the Antichrist,come to usher in the end times.
The virus is just the beginning. The world is going to end next year.

#3 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-05-14 04:47 PM | Reply

The world is going to end next year.

#3 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-05-14 04:47

Alarmist.

The world will end in 2022.

#4 | Posted by Zed at 2020-05-14 05:01 PM | Reply | Funny: 2 | Newsworthy 1

Republicans cheat.

Next question?

#5 | Posted by truthhurts at 2020-05-14 05:02 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Trump doesn't need the popular vote to win.

He needs the EC.

Republicans control the EC by controlling a lot of factors in states they control.

Purging registered voters. Shutting down voting stations. Setting up obstacles to being able to vote.

Republicans know. When people vote. They lose.

#6 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-05-14 05:08 PM | Reply

Trump will lose. Most people now understand the damage he is wreaking. Unless he finds another way of cheating again this time, he will lose. The Russians are already out in force blogging and trolling on his behalf. But that will not be enough. The GOP effort to disenfranchise minorities is also in full force, but over-all the courts have been pretty good at knocking those out. Obviously the GOP has lots more scams and ways to cheat up their sleeve. Hacking voting machines. False flag operations. Computer phone calls to millions of people telling them lies. Leaning on GOP Secretaries of State to falsify results (a la Florida in 2000). Falsely accusing opponents of sexual misconduct or other nefarious behavior. In short, if there is a scummy tactic in the playbook, the GOP will use it. And they still will lose.

#7 | Posted by moder8 at 2020-05-14 05:47 PM | Reply

#7 | Posted by moder8

That's a charitable assessment.

One can only hope you're right.

#8 | Posted by Angrydad at 2020-05-14 06:15 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

You can't fight fantasy.

#9 | Posted by TFDNihilist at 2020-05-14 06:33 PM | Reply

&nbp

@#2 ... Consequently, folks don't value polls as much as they may have in the past. ...

Going in to the election, the polls showed 171 Electoral College votes within the margin of error of the polling. ( www.realclearpolitics.com )

The polls, simply said, showed that it was not appropriate to make a decision based upon the polls.

So if the "folks" don't value polls, perhaps it is because of their inability to understand the "margin of error" aspect of the polls.

Jus' sayin' :)

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 06:33 PM | Reply

@#7 ... Most people now understand ...

You need to substantiate how you came to the conclusion that you assert with "most people" and what they understand.

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 06:37 PM | Reply

SCOTUS will be there to lend Trump a helping hand. Don't worry though, one of Trump/GOP-lackeys will be sure to express their regrets several years after they retire when it's too late to matter.

#12 | Posted by censored at 2020-05-14 06:42 PM | Reply

1. Biden
2. Republicans cheat, but for some reason was honest the prior two presidential elections.
3. Biden's townhall failures
4. It's May. Too early to tell
5. Biden and Trump debates
6. The silent voters
7. The DNC convention and Biden.
8. Cuomo
9. Hillary
10. Michelle

#13 | Posted by Petrous at 2020-05-14 06:44 PM | Reply

Polls were wrong before.

#14 | Posted by jdmeth at 2020-05-14 07:02 PM | Reply

Actually, polls were correct in 2016, they just did not take into account the Electoral College. HRC won by more than three million votes! And from that perspective, other than Gerald Ford, djt is the least legitimate president this nation has ever had.

#15 | Posted by moder8 at 2020-05-14 07:05 PM | Reply

#7 - Thank you! I still remember your great sports predictions.

#16 | Posted by Spork at 2020-05-14 07:15 PM | Reply

#15

George W. Bush may actually still hold that title.

The last 2 Republican presidents lost the popular vote and Bush was actually appointed by the Supreme Court. DJT is going to do everything in his power to make sure the 2020 election is rigged.

#17 | Posted by chuffy at 2020-05-14 07:16 PM | Reply

#5 is it.

Thread over.

#18 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-14 07:19 PM | Reply

@#15 ... Actually, polls were correct in 2016, they just did not take into account the Electoral College. ...

If I may offer a minor correction.

The polls were correct.

It was those who interpreted the polls who did not take into account the margin of error of those polls.

Look at the link I posted a couple of messages ago. That site took into account the margins of error in the polls and came to the conclusion that the polls could not decide a winner in the Electoral College.

Unfortunately, many who looked at those same polls decided upon a different conclusion, quite erroneoulsy. But that was their decision based upon their [incorrect] interpretation of the polls.


The polls going into the 2016 election showed 17 Electoral College votes within the margin of error of the polling, i.e., a conclusion should not be drawn.

So if you really want to castigate some entity about the 2016 election, maybe you should look at those who did not understand the results of the polls but chose to proffer comments based thereon.


#19 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 07:32 PM | Reply

@#19

The polls going into the 2016 election showed 17 Electoral College votes

- should be -

The polls going into the 2016 election showed 171 Electoral College votes

#20 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-14 07:35 PM | Reply

In a word: Cheating.

In a sentence: The Republican Party is a friend
to 'alternative ways of winning'.

Their weapons of choice: easily hackable voting
machines (remember Diebold?), gerrymandering,
making it very difficult for minorities to vote,
and lies and disinformation.

Their targets of choice: ignorant redneck white folk and the electoral college...

#21 | Posted by earthmuse at 2020-05-14 09:47 PM | Reply

The prime reason is his opponent, Biden.

#22 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-15 08:28 AM | Reply

The prime reason is his opponent, Biden.

#22 | POSTED BY DOCNJO

There is literally no criticism of Biden that I've seen that isn't better applied to Trump.

Think McFly, think.

#23 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-15 10:18 AM | Reply

Xochitl Hinojosa ... we are not nominating Joe Biden. Oops

#24 | Posted by Petrous at 2020-05-15 10:28 AM | Reply

The prime reason is his opponent, Biden.

#22 | POSTED BY DOCNJO

No.

This time around people who dislike both candidates are leaning Democrat. In 2016, people who disliked both leaned Republican.

So no, try again.

#25 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-15 11:33 AM | Reply

@#7 ... Most people now understand ...
You need to substantiate how you came to the conclusion that you assert with "most people" and what they understand.
#11 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER

The article does a good job of that.

His approval rating is down around 43% with disapproval ten points higher.

Of those disapproving, 88% voted Republican in 2018. Of those approving, 90% voted Democrat in 2018.

While the electoral college plays a huge factor in making that mean less, it may not be enough to overcome a 10 point disapproval rating coupled with voters who overwhelmingly voter according to it.

If these numbers held true as a rough estimate and we assume the remainder split evenly, Trump would take 7 million less voters in 2020 as he did in 2016. It would be 74 million Biden votes and 56 million Trump votes.

Although its unlikely undecideds will split evenly. Voters who dislike both candidates are leaning towards Biden. So this could be an even worse indicator.

Even with the electoral college, that's nearly impossible to overcome.

#26 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-15 01:43 PM | Reply

Because the electoral college is tilted towards rural areas, that's why.

#27 | Posted by e1g1 at 2020-05-15 01:54 PM | Reply

Because successful autocrats rarely lose elections.

#28 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-15 02:03 PM | Reply

Lol. Ask Hillary.

#29 | Posted by AuntieSocial at 2020-05-15 03:03 PM | Reply

Because the electoral college is tilted towards rural areas, that's why.

#27 | Posted by e1g1

Because the electoral college protects smaller states from being overrun by the large cities population.

#30 | Posted by boaz at 2020-05-15 03:35 PM | Reply

Actually, polls were correct in 2016, they just did not take into account the Electoral College

Liberals keep thinking we are a mob democracy.

We are a Republic. That's why we have an EC.

#31 | Posted by boaz at 2020-05-15 03:36 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Because the electoral college is tilted towards rural areas, that's why.
#27 | Posted by e1g1
Because the electoral college protects smaller states from being overrun by the large cities population.
#30 | POSTED BY BOAZ

Originally yes. But we now have so many smaller states, that smaller states are overrunning larger states.

#32 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-15 04:03 PM | Reply

Liberals keep thinking we are a mob democracy.
We are a Republic. That's why we have an EC.

#31 | POSTED BY BOAZ

Jesus. Why do you trot that out that semantic BS?

Democracy and Republic are generic terms just like Representative Democracy.

And the Electoral College has nothing to do with a Republic.

#33 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-05-15 04:06 PM | Reply

the electoral college protects smaller states from being overrun by the large cities population.

Translation: It allows less people to get their way.

I've asked you dozens of times and you've never responded: Why is tyranny of the minority preferable to tyranny of the majority?

Now run away.

#34 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-15 04:07 PM | Reply

Why is tyranny of the minority preferable to tyranny of the majority?

No tyranny is preferable.

What Boaz isn't admitting is, he couldn't care less about the EC. He's just happy it allows Trumpublicans to win.

If the EC wasn't helping Republicans win, Boaz would be posting about civil wars in every thread, much like he did prior to Trump's win.

#35 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-05-15 04:21 PM | Reply

No EC = sheeple mob rule

#36 | Posted by Greatamerican at 2020-05-15 04:32 PM | Reply

We are a Republic. That's why we have an EC.
#31 | POSTED BY BOAZ

No need to go out of your way to prove to us how stupid you are, Boaz.

1) An EC has nothing to do with a Republic. For someone who loves to say, "We're a Republic." You should take 5 minutes to learn more about what a Republic is.

2) If the EC wasn't helping Republicans win, you would be demanding it be abolished and threatening to start a civil war.

#37 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-05-15 04:42 PM | Reply

Because the electoral college ensures smaller states can overrun the large cities.
POSTED BY BOAZ

#38 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-05-15 05:02 PM | Reply

DR is perfect example of need for EC...lib syncophantic mob.

#39 | Posted by Greatamerican at 2020-05-15 06:00 PM | Reply

OK, Sense the Electoral College is in the Constitution, it will require a constitutional amendment to change it. Two courses are prescribed. One, two thirds of the legislature has to approve it for it to be adopted or Two, two thirds of the states pass a constitutional amendment or call for a constitutional convention. Good luck with that. It ain't going to happen.

#40 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-15 06:35 PM | Reply

"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,"
~ Donald J. Trump

#41 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-05-15 06:48 PM | Reply

More gas lighting.

#42 | Posted by fresno500 at 2020-05-15 06:54 PM | Reply

#41 | Posted by REDIAL There is a reason we have that part of the Constitution. It prevents three of the most populous states from dictating policy for the other 47. Think 2030, California as been bankrupt for seven years. The flight of millions of Californians spread across the sun belt.New York has last 20% of it's population. Chicago is now administered by federal authorities after every elected official in the city being arrested for gross corruption, following the state being taken over by federal authorities after being hopelessly insolvent. Texas is the most populous in the country followed by Florida. Are you sure that you want to end the EC?

#43 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-15 07:04 PM | Reply

Are you sure that you want to end the EC?

I could personally not care less. Just pointing out DJT was against it until he was for it.

#44 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-05-15 07:09 PM | Reply

43, Doc's wet dream for all to read. Texas, now a solidly blue state. Left that one out did ya?

#45 | Posted by zelkova at 2020-05-15 07:38 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

The world is going to end next year.

#3 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-05-14 04:47

Alarmist.

The world will end in 2022.

#4 | POSTED BY ZED

What time?

#46 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-15 08:51 PM | Reply

Rightwingers only think democracy is "tyranny" when they lose. I'm not sure a single one of them understands the term.

#47 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-15 08:58 PM | Reply

"Sense the Electoral College is in the Constitution, it will require a constitutional amendment to change it. "

There are workarounds.

There's nothing in the Constitution which says States have to apportion all their Electors to the winning party.
And some states don't.

If all the States chose to split their Electors to match the Popular vote, it would be a lot closer to democratic representation.
Of course, you can see why neither side wants to unilaterally surrender their solid Red or Blue states like that.

#48 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-05-15 09:18 PM | Reply

"There are workarounds."

Rules are made to be broken!

-The Trumptilians

#49 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-15 09:26 PM | Reply

The world will end on
6.10.21

#50 | Posted by LesWit at 2020-05-15 09:41 PM | Reply

(1)
The Vegas odds have Trump winning handily.

m.lasvegassportsbetting.com

(2)
No one, or close to it, thought he'd win on 2016, and he did win.

(3)
I bet against him in 2016.
I'm betting he wins, bluster and all, in 2020.

(4)
WHY would he lose?
All the usual stuff like "he's racist" have all been used and don't seem to fit the bill 100%.
Kinda like the boy who cried wolf.

(5)
Joe Creepy Biden.
That empty suit will never win.

#51 | Posted by drivelikejehu at 2020-05-15 10:25 PM | Reply

There is literally no criticism of Biden that I've seen that isn't better applied to Trump.

Think McFly, think.

#23 | POSTED BY JPW

Biden hasn't done anything other than be a politician.
Biden is older than the baby boomers including Trump.

There's just a couple o differences.

#52 | Posted by drivelikejehu at 2020-05-15 10:29 PM | Reply

If Trump continues to kick Obama around ("he should be in jail"), that six point DISadvantage Trump has at the moment will start to look like a gift. Obama is a VERY popular former President.

Trump keep repeating that Obama/Biden was the most corrupt administration EVER without offering a single detail. Since the Obama/Biden administration was scandal free for 8 years and no one in the Obama/Biden administration was prosecuted or spent a day in jail, I can only conclude that Trump is projecting again.

Or, as Ronald Reagan said "There he goes again."

Projection is one of Trump's most serious "tells." We can always count on Trump to accuse others of the same things he's most guilty of himself.

#53 | Posted by Twinpac at 2020-05-16 02:04 AM | Reply

Trump will win simply because Joe Biden is the best thing the DNC can come up with as an alternative. In a nutshell.

#54 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2020-05-16 05:40 AM | Reply

#53 You need to start to pay attention to Russia Gate. Everything the Dems accused Trump of doing they did. It's being proven.

#55 | Posted by fishpaw at 2020-05-16 07:20 AM | Reply

It's being proven.

#55 | Posted by fishpaw at 2020-05-16 07:20 AM | Reply | Flag:

In your mind.

But you believe in Q, don't you?

#56 | Posted by Zed at 2020-05-16 08:46 AM | Reply

If Trump continues to kick Obama around ("he should be in jail"), that six point DISadvantage Trump has at the moment will start to look like a gift.

#53 | Posted by Twinpac a

Obama is radioactive for Trump. It's Trump's desperation generally and Trump's mental illness particularly that prevents him from leaving Obama alone.

As has been pointed out, Donald Trump is now calling for the arrest of his predecessor in the Presidency as well as the man running against him for the Presidency.

If either thing happens, or seems about to happen, there will be mass civil disobedience. At the least.

#57 | Posted by Zed at 2020-05-16 08:51 AM | Reply

It's being proven.

#55 | Posted by fishpaw

It been proven that Trumpy cheated.

And Trumpy will cheat again.

#58 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-16 11:56 AM | Reply

#48 There are other workarounds too.

Congress should pass legislation reducing the size of Washington, D.C., to an area encompassing only a few core federal buildings and then admit the rest of the District's 127 neighborhoods as states. These states " which could be added with a simple congressional majority " would add enough votes in Congress to ratify four amendments: (1) a transfer of the Senate's power to a body that represents citizens equally; (2) an expansion of the House so that all citizens are represented in equal-sized districts; (3) a replacement of the Electoral College with a popular vote; and (4) a modification of the Constitution's amendment process that would ensure future amendments are ratified by states representing most Americans.

harvardlawreview.org

If Democrats ever hold the House, Senate, and Presidency again, it is incumbent upon them to do something like this.

#59 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-16 12:03 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

#59 out would be better to just enact public funding for campaigns

#60 | Posted by BruceBanner at 2020-05-16 01:20 PM | Reply

Recent round table. Someone should tell Biden's staff to turn off the comment section of their own YT video.

#61 | Posted by Petrous at 2020-05-16 02:26 PM | Reply

The networks, even the left leaning ones want a horse race.

Horse race = more viewers

Blue Tsunami = less viewers

Simple math and economics.

Bad news for them is it won't be a horse race.
A Blue Tsunami is coming and there isn't a thing the (R)tards can do about it.

#62 | Posted by aborted_monson at 2020-05-16 02:33 PM | Reply

#62 | Posted by aborted_monson The Vegas odds makers disagree, and they would not be in business if they were not right more than being wrong. Hint: they never gave HRC better than even odds.

#63 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-16 03:39 PM | Reply

Vegas odds makers move the line to cover their own asses, fool.

#64 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-05-16 03:42 PM | Reply

A Blue Tsunami is coming and there isn't a thing the (R)tards can do about it.

#62 | POSTED BY ABORTED_MONSON

Maybe. We certainly hope. But. There are things they can do.

They can continue to harass and fire anyone who tries to speak up against this administration.

They can try and convince blue states to open when they are obviously not ready. That should kill a few million of them.

They can enlist Russia's help again. Or Ukraine.

Trumpy can try to send his worm ( thanks Siri) troopers to liberate us at the gate capital in California or elsewhere.

Trump can have Biden and Obama charged to distract.

Trump can Do many things to distract.

They can undermine the democratic electoral process by allowing foreign interference again.

Don't say there is nothing they can do. They can do plenty. And already have. We have the tapes.

#65 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-16 03:47 PM | Reply

Gate capital = State Capital

#66 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-05-16 03:48 PM | Reply

#60 Why would that be better?

#67 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-16 08:49 PM | Reply

#67 | Posted by JOE Public funding of campaigns would only further entrench the incumbents as it has already. A better idea would be term limits.

#68 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-17 09:42 AM | Reply

#62 | Posted by aborted_monson I could understand that a hard core leftist living in the west side of the Cascades would believe that. But the country is much larger than that wet socialist paradise where the sunlight seldom breaks through. But still, more often than reality breaks into your mind.

#69 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-17 09:49 AM | Reply

#68 The flipside to term limits is that it discourages gaining policy expertise. If a Congressperson knows they will only be on the job for a short period they will be less likely to dig deep on topics we need them to. It would also automatically kick out the few lawmakers who are actually liked and effective. It also ensures that people who can afford to go screw around in DC for a few years without furthering a permanent career somewhere will be the only ones running for Congress.

I still say the solution i posed above is what i want.

#70 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-17 10:43 AM | Reply

Trump may win because you can't fight stupid. America is awash in stupid.

#71 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-05-17 11:12 AM | Reply

#71 | Posted by Whatsleft, the most stupid are recent university graduates who generally don't shake off their indoctrination until they reach their 30s. Work tends to acquaint most with reality.
#70 | Posted by JOE If an individual knows he will be returning to real life in a few years, he might be a little more careful about the laws he passes. It does seem the longer these individuals are in DC the more a beltway mentality takes root.

#72 | Posted by docnjo at 2020-05-17 11:36 AM | Reply

If an individual knows he will be returning to real life in a few years, he might be a little more careful about the laws he passes

Meaningless drivel. Careful how? It anything a race against the clock will mean a rush to cram everything through that you can without learning the policy nuts and bolts or giving it proper thought.

#73 | Posted by JOE at 2020-05-17 04:33 PM | Reply

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