"The problem is the numbers have been all over the place. The modeling has been terrible."
The covid virus is not cooperating? Government response muddled and confusing? Who could have predicted that?
Hint: Obama did
See Crimson Contagion
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services last year set up a months-long simulated exercise that showed the nation was unprepared for a pandemic, according to a critical draft assessment. Then the Trump administration took little action to respond to many of the lessons learned, The New York Times reported.
The exercise, code named "Crimson Contagion," had eerie similarities to the current real-life coronavirus pandemic.
The exercise involved officials from more than a dozen federal agencies, several states and hospitals responding to a scenario in which a pandemic flu that began in China was spread by international tourists and was deemed a pandemic 47 days after the first outbreak. By then, in the scenario, 110 million Americans were expected to become ill.
The simulation that ran from January to August exposed problems that included funding shortfalls, muddled leadership roles, scarce resources, and a hodgepodge of responses from cities and states, according to the dunning assessment obtained by the Times.
It also became apparent that the U.S. was incapable of quickly manufacturing adequate equipment and medicines for such an emergency, according to the draft report.
The Trump administration also had the benefit of lessons learned by the Obama administration in dealing with the Ebola crisis. Obama aides in early 2017 ran an exercise for pandemic preparedness for incoming officials of the Trump administration as part of the transition, but almost all of the previous administration's experts had left the government by last year.
Former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, who was fired by Trump in 2019, warned of the danger of a pandemic to an unprepared nation last year in his Worldwide Threat Assessment.