Saturday, May 16, 2020
We're more than one month into America's worst economic crisis in 80 years and Trump's approval rating is still considerably higher than it has been for most of his presidency. Most national polls are of registered voters, not likely ones. And since the GOP's older voting base still turns out more reliably than the Democrats' younger one, "a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide." Furthermore, over the past two decades, U.S. voters have become ever-more-tightly ensconced in one party or the other. Ticket-splitting " the practice of voting for one party at the presidential level but another down-ballot " has plummeted since Barack Obama's election. This has reduced the importance of many nonpartisan variables in electoral outcomes.
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