Biden is winning in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and holds modest-but-real leads in tougher states like Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona.This might be the most self-serving article that I've posted in a while. If I were advising Joe the only places I'd want to see him go would be to food banks to put more emphasis on marshaling more resources to help unemployed Americans. He should hold virtual town halls with Covid survivors so that they can tell their stories on how the virus impacted their lives - from those who might have nearly died to those who only had mild symptoms. Of course he should engage experts and gather his own kitchen cabinet as to how he plans to deal with all the impacts of the pandemic and its economic ramifications from minute one.
Indeed, as of the end of April, the Trump campaign had already spent $172 million, but with not much to show for it, given the polling. (Biden had spent $117 million, but he had to run a primary campaign.)
The reason this massive cash and digital advantage may not be translating into much " at least for now " has to do with the pit he's sinking all of those resources into. Trump's campaign, like his presidency, is aimed largely at his supporters, people he needs to drive into a frenzy to torque up turnout.
But all that messaging, which is full of xenophobia, outrage, resentment and white noise only the GOP base understands, also reinforces things that other voters he needs (such as suburban and college educated whites, mostly women) don't like about him. That is, some of the very things Biden wants to highlight.
Biden may be stuck in his basement, but the contrast here may be very compelling: Biden is personally acting out what countless of Americans are going through, sticking to what the scientists are recommending, for the good of others, for the good of the country, even if it inconveniences him.
Meanwhile, Trump is jetting around without a mask, demonstrating his privileged enjoyment of safety and protections that ordinary Americans lack, and failing to set the example that large majorities want to see set.
What he doesn't need to do is try to out-Trump Trump. 2020 Trump is a known commodity. He can't just run on what he plans on doing without having to answer for all that he has or hasn't done since 2017.
This isn't an election where voters are looking for charisma, this is an election where voters desperately understand the need for decency, compassion and competence to return to the White House. And Biden can effectively make that case from his basement as it contrasts with Trump bouncing from mistake to mistake always blaming them on somebody else other than himself.