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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Saturday, May 23, 2020

Coronavirus has taken a major toll on the US, and we likely don't yet know the full extent of its damage. At Surgo Foundation, we've been concerned that the severity of the epidemic is being obscured by a massive underreporting of "excess deaths" -- or the number of deaths above the average recorded for the same period in previous years. Our data suggest that we may be especially undercounting COVID-19 deaths in Southern parts of the US. In more than 200 of the counties we examined, excess death rates were between two times to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.

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This isn't the first study I've seen about COVID-19 deaths being under reported.

#1 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-05-23 04:43 AM | Reply


At Surgo Foundation, we've analyzed county-level mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to paint a more granular picture, highlighting disparities in death reporting that were previously unavailable. Now, for the first time since the pandemic began, we're able to study excess death counts at the county level in the United States.

And what we've learned is disconcerting. Our data suggest that we may be especially undercounting COVID-19 deaths in Southern parts of the US. In more than 200 of the counties we examined, excess death rates were between two times to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.

#2 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-05-23 04:46 AM | Reply

The reason I posted this thread is because it's pretty clear COVID-19 is much more widespread than the limited amount of testing and reported deaths (by hospitals) indicate. And why it's important to stay vigilant to protect ourselves from infection.

#3 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-05-23 04:50 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The following article deals with excess deaths as opposed to mortality rates and puts the risks into perspective.

www.nytimes.com

Extracts from article :

"A useful way to understand risks is by comparing them with what is called a "micromort," which measures a one-in-a-million chance of dying. Note that we are considering only fatality risks here, not the risk of growing sick from coronavirus, or morbidity. The micromort allows one to easily compare the risk of dying from skydiving, for example (7 micromorts per jump), or going under general anesthesia in the United States (5 micromorts), to that of giving birth in the United States (210 micromorts). The average American endures about one micromort of risk per day, or one in a million chance of dying from nonnatural causes such as being electrocuted, dying in a car wreck or being struck by an asteroid (the list is long)."

"an individual living in New York City has experienced roughly 50 additional micromorts of risk per day because of Covid-19. That means you were roughly twice as likely to die as you would have been if you were serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 2010, a particularly deadly year."

If you actually get infected, the risks rise dramatically - obvious I would have thought, but reading some of the posts on DR, such assumptions can be dangerous.

#4 | Posted by Foreigner at 2020-05-23 10:36 AM | Reply

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests
www.nytimes.com

...More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 " 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics. ...

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-05-23 10:43 AM | Reply

Because of the lack of testing this is likely the only way we'll be able to measure deaths from the pandemic.

Ten, twenty fifty years from now we'll be discussing "excess deaths" during this 1-1.5 year span.

#6 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-23 11:12 AM | Reply

I'm sure they are higher than reported, but one needs to be careful about the correlation/causation fallacy.

#7 | Posted by sentinel at 2020-05-23 11:14 AM | Reply

"Ten, twenty fifty years from now we'll be discussing "excess deaths" during this 1-1.5 year span."

I agree

#8 | Posted by eberly at 2020-05-23 11:20 AM | Reply

These total death count disparities don't account for lower deaths due to less traffic. The uncounted Covid related deaths are likely even higher than this study suggests.

I wish I was wrong, but I still expect the US to reach 200,000 Covid deaths in the fall and 400,000 in the spring.

This is an epic tragedy unfolding while the GOP continues to deny the risk and actively promote behavior and policies that spread Covid.

#9 | Posted by bored at 2020-05-23 11:48 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Trump complains death toll is hurting his re-election plans. Death tolls in Trumpistan mysteriously drop. Strongly suspect certain states in Trumpistan are now significantly UNDERREPORTING new case numbers and deaths from COVID-19.

#10 | Posted by getoffmedz at 2020-05-23 12:57 PM | Reply

I'm sure they are higher than reported, but one needs to be careful about the correlation/causation fallacy.

#7 | POSTED BY SENTINEL

Of course. When all is said and done there will likely be a range reported. There's no way to ever know the exact number.

#11 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-23 01:55 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Of course Dotard is concealing the true size of his massive body count.

#12 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2020-05-23 06:12 PM | Reply

What a shame we even have to have discussions like this when the pandemic's spread in the U.S. could have been ameliorated with an all out effort to prevent its spread early on when we had the chance in Feb-March. Instead, our president downplayed the threat until a response was unavoidable, and that response has been too little too late to prevent widespread transmission, far beneath our capabilities. All because of his ego.

#13 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-05-23 06:35 PM | Reply

#13 | POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

I have a creeping suspicion that in 1918 there was a similar group of folks as us sitting in a pub (distanced, of course) talking about the same issues.

I'm starting to realize a very small portion of the population makes progress. The rest are drug along unwillingly (often unknowingly) as they live their lives in a pathetic sort of stasis.

#14 | Posted by jpw at 2020-05-25 01:08 AM | Reply

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