Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, July 09, 2020

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. "The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced. The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said. "The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Mr Norpoth said.


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If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party's first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump's election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.

"Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory," he said.

The prediction comes as a number other election models have suggested that Mr Trump will lose to Mr Biden as a result of a number of factors including the ongoing pandemic.

A national election model by Oxford Economics has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a "historic defeat" in November's election due to the coronavirus economic recession.


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"All Models are Wrong, but some are useful"

1 model heavily dependent on enthusiasm does not mean much. The article references 2 other models showing a Biden win, so I guess we get to pick which one(s) we believe.

It's true that Trump has a huge enthusiasm bump over Biden. But if 35% of the voters enthusiastically pull the lever for Trump and 60% hold their nose and pull it for Biden, that enthusiasm means very little.

#1 | Posted by bartimus at 2020-07-09 10:18 AM | Reply

But if 35% of the voters enthusiastically pull the lever for Trump and 60% hold their nose and pull it for Biden, that enthusiasm means very little.

#1 | Posted by bartimus

As others have sagely pointed out, even if there is little enthusiasm for Biden then there is vast enthusiasm for nailing Donald Trump.

#2 | Posted by Zed at 2020-07-09 10:29 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

His track record thus far is meaningless.

Not only have norms been thrown out the window in every way with Trump as POTUS, but we're also in the middle of a pandemic with tens of thousands of people becoming ill per day and hundreds of thousands losing their lives.

There is nothing remotely normal about this year's elections, so I'll pass on a model using something like primary enthusiasm as a metric...

#3 | Posted by jpw at 2020-07-09 10:40 AM | Reply

'"Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory," he said.'

That's not actually the way I remember it.

#4 | Posted by Zed at 2020-07-09 10:47 AM | Reply

So Biden losing 2 of the smallest whitest states early on means Trump will win?

You must really be counting on voter suppression because IMO Trump is toast.

#5 | Posted by 503jc69 at 2020-07-09 10:50 AM | Reply

Stats like this will be produced to push the narrative of a close race...because the media needs a close race.

#6 | Posted by eberly at 2020-07-09 11:24 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The media wants all contests to be uncertain.
Their audience wants certainty.
The media offers information to feed the hope of certainty, while fomenting uncertainty to hook its audience.

#7 | Posted by bored at 2020-07-09 12:09 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Interestingly terrifying but as JPW points out, the Pandemic would seem to skew this model tremendously.

I will wait to see what the USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll has to say when they release it after the conventions, it was the only poll to correctly predict, from the start, Trump's win in 2016. It also picked Biden's nomination prior to his SC and Super Tuesday wins.

#8 | Posted by leftcoastlawyer at 2020-07-09 01:19 PM | Reply

New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits
Eric Bradner

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Updated 4:43 PM ET, Sun October 23, 2016

Newsweek- 2016 Presidential Polls for October 28, 2016
By Lucy Westcott On 10/28/16 at 11:07 AM EDT

The Upshot's daily election forecast also puts Trump in a slightly better position. He has a nine percent chance of winning the election, the forecast says, compared to Clinton's 91 percent chance. On Thursday, Trump had an eight percent chance of winning. Trump's chances of winning have dropped significantly since June, when he had a 42 percent chance of winning the election, according to the forecast, compared to Clinton's 58 percent chance.

They were everywhere

#9 | Posted by homerj at 2020-07-09 04:50 PM | Reply

Well I guess we're all F***ed, then. ----!!!

#10 | Posted by hamburglar at 2020-07-09 04:51 PM | Reply

How can a model based on primary enthusiasm properly account for a re-election campaign with a bunch of rigged and canceled primaries?

#11 | Posted by JOE at 2020-07-09 05:01 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2


Follow this:


Far more accurate as it relates to the EC; vast majority of 2016 polls being highlighted as wrong focused on popular vote, which HRC won.

#12 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-07-09 05:23 PM | Reply

Gracie is one dumb bunny!
I know bags of hammers that are smarter than him!

#13 | Posted by a_monson at 2020-07-09 06:21 PM | Reply

Well I guess we're all [...], then. ----!!!
#10 | POSTED BY HAMBURGLAR AT 2020-07-09 04:51 PM

#14 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2020-07-09 06:57 PM | Reply

The censored word kinda rhymes with "Porgy"

#15 | Posted by hamburglar at 2020-07-09 07:44 PM | Reply

Oh Gracie.

She gonna be so amazed.

#16 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-07-10 09:09 AM | Reply

Semantics but nobody I know is voting for Biden, everybody is voting against Trump.

#17 | Posted by fresno500 at 2020-07-10 09:41 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Trump again???

Well, at least it's not Bernie.

So...there's that.

#18 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-07-10 01:16 PM | Reply

Bernie's policies of Social Spending are exactly what we need now. 45 is a complete disaster.

#19 | Posted by hamburglar at 2020-07-10 02:41 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

From the article:
"Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory," he said.

Not even remotely true. National Polls had her winning the Popular Vote.

But most state polls were within the margin of error.

538 gave Trump a 35-40% chance of winning.

This has been discussed in numerous studies and articles. How has a so-called "expert" missed this?

How bad is this model from the article? It says Trump will get 362 electoral votes...

Hey, Gracie, want to put money on Trump getting 362 electoral votes? I'll give you 3-1 odds.

#20 | Posted by Sycophant at 2020-07-10 04:32 PM | Reply

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