Just to be conservative, let's say actual cases are 5X the confirmed cases:
8.5 million X 5 = 42.5 million cases
225,000 deaths / 42.5 million cases = .0053 or .53% fatality
Or .265% fatality at the CDC's suggested 10X.
Though it effects those above a certain age at a far higher rate, I do not believe the actual total death rate from COVID in the US is more than 1%.
Worst case scenario, if the entire US population is infected, there would be less than 2 million deaths (still a substantial number that is not taken seriously enough by many). When this is done, there could also be tens of millions with long term health issues as a result of COVID.
#27 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 01:18 PM
As has already been pointed out, you used all cases in your calculation instead of those that are resolved, making your IFR too low. With your 5x undercount of infections, there would be only about 25M cases with a resolution, not 42M. Add in the undercount of deaths you used later, and you're now over 1% IFR.
0.01 x .7 x 325M = 2.2+M dead. More than 10x that number with permanent health effects.
I guess the good news is, if it's really spreading at 350k a day and accelerating, it won't take as long to get to the 70% infection level. 565 days at 350k/day, but it'd be exponential spread for a while, so maybe only another year. 2.2M dead in a year, just from CoViD-19. That's about the number of deaths from all causes in the U.S. in a year. I'm sure that won't have any negative impacts on the economy or anything. It also doesn't account for all the other effects from all the hospitalizations. If 2.2M died, at least 20M would have required hospitalization. I'm pretty sure the healthcare system would have been completely swamped long before that happened. Even if the CDC's estimate were correct, we're still talking about 10M requiring hospitalization in less than a year, each taking weeks to resolve assuming they got cared for. That's people dying in the streets kinds of numbers before you even add in all the other causes of death that would no longer be treated.