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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, October 22, 2020

The US is now well into the dreaded fall surge, fueled by indoor socializing, outbreaks at schools and pandemic fatigue. More than 1,100 new deaths were reported Wednesday -- the highest daily toll in more than a month, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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"Rounding the corner"

#1 | Posted by Scotty at 2020-10-22 05:17 PM | Reply

Sigh,

here we go again, more dead losers.

#2 | Posted by bocaink at 2020-10-22 05:20 PM | Reply

I'm sure that in tonight's debate Trump will have a clear, cogent explanation why this is no big deal, and that explanation will be founded in the latest science on the subject...

#3 | Posted by catdog at 2020-10-22 05:25 PM | Reply

We're now at the same high levels of cases and deaths we were at the height of spring's outbreak.

Now we're beginning at that as a baseline on the curve going into the seasons health experts have warned will be the worst of the pandemic.

This is going to get much, much worse.

#4 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-10-22 05:40 PM | Reply

It's going to be over on November 4th. That's what they keep telling me.

#5 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-22 05:49 PM | Reply

Two 9/11s a week?
It is what it is.

Womp womp.

#6 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-10-22 05:54 PM | Reply

"Womp Womp"

That doesn't seem like a very nice thing to say about such a terrible thing thats going on in our country.

#7 | Posted by moonunit at 2020-10-22 06:03 PM | Reply

Any death is terrible, but the Fatality Rate has been slowly but steadily dropping from a high in late July of 4.1 to 2.6 a 37% drop with Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | Posted by Maverick at 2020-10-22 06:03 PM | Reply

We're gonna that herd mentality any day now. Some folk say I have the best herd mentality because I just get this stuff.

-President Knucklehead

#9 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-10-22 06:09 PM | Reply

My phone is really wonky...

"Biden would never reach herd mentality, he'd listen to the science like a dumb bastard."

#10 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-10-22 06:11 PM | Reply

The US is now 10th worst in the world for deaths/1 million population, and that includes San Marino and Andorra.

#11 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2020-10-22 06:16 PM | Reply

Any death is terrible, but the Fatality Rate has been slowly but steadily dropping from a high in late July of 4.1 to 2.6 a 37% drop with Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | Posted by Maverick at 2020-10-22 06:03 PM | Reply

Yes, because doctors have learned better ways to treat Covid, and because since the spring surge ended, ICU beds and ventilators have been more available. Now with a bunch of red states and northern swing states overflowing their ICUs, expect the death rate to start rocketing back up as doctors are going to have to start triaging in favor of younger, healthier patients over older, sicker patients. Again, we are nearing the point of Sarah Palin's death panels, thanks to Dotard and the GOP! This is why the WH is so opposed to spending those billions of dollars for testing, they know this will lead to hundreds of thousands more deaths, but if they weren't diagnosed, it was just a heart attack, a stroke or pnumonia. In fact, we have undercounted the Covid deaths by about at least 80,000, as so far this year 300,000 more people have died than in an average non-Covid year.

#12 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-10-22 06:17 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#12 | Posted by _Gunslinger_

Too many words for "maverick".

#13 | Posted by Angrydad at 2020-10-22 06:41 PM | Reply

"I'm aware of covid. But I really want to talk about this laptop in New Jersey..."

#14 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-10-22 07:28 PM | Reply

So... much... winning.

Just wish it would stop.

#15 | Posted by gtbritishskull at 2020-10-22 08:02 PM | Reply

Any death is terrible, but the Fatality Rate has been slowly but steadily dropping from a high in late July of 4.1 to 2.6 a 37% drop with Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | Posted by Maverick

Translation - "Yeah but look at all the people trump DIDNT quite kill!"

#16 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-10-22 08:14 PM | Reply

"Killer" probably won't acknowledge a single death tonight.

#17 | Posted by Jaspar at 2020-10-22 08:21 PM | Reply

Trumptidumpty is leaving office in disgrace

the apologists need to just get over thenmselves

#18 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2020-10-22 08:27 PM | Reply

It's only 275 time the number killed in Benghazi

- - mavricstang

#19 | Posted by ChiefTutMoses at 2020-10-22 08:46 PM | Reply

Any death is terrible, but the Fatality Rate has been slowly but steadily dropping from a high in late July of 4.1 to 2.6 a 37% drop with Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | Posted by Maverick

Among other lingering effects, this virus is doing heart and lung damage to young, healthy athletes. In large numbers.

Even if you don't die your health could be affected for the rest of your life. And you'd have a preexisting condition that'll cost you vastly higher health insurance premiums IF insurers even offer it should the ACA be overturned.

#20 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-10-22 08:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

This is going to get much, much worse.

#4 | POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

This is what happens when you have incompetent sociopaths "leading" the country.

Trump supporters are absolute ---- for trying to foist another four years of this on the populace.

#21 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 11:42 AM | Reply

Any death is terrible, but the Fatality Rate has been slowly but steadily dropping from a high in late July of 4.1 to 2.6 a 37% drop with Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | POSTED BY MAVERICK

You're desperate.

If 20% of cases are symptomatic and result in positive test results (assuming for sake of argument), we're talking about millions of infections.

Let's be generous and say 20% of the populace is immune and immunity prevents secondary infections (again, simplifying for argument's sake), that means we need 40-50% of the population to be infected before "herd mentality" can kick in.

That's 132 to 165 million symptomatic cases. If the "better" case fatality rate remains at 2.6% (37% drop...yay!), that means 3.64 to 4.29 million deaths. Because reality never follows simple math, let's be generous and assume half of that comes to pass.

That's still, still, 1.82 to 2.13 million deaths.

So stop being an obtuse idiot. At a quarter of the above math you're talking about another million or so deaths ON TOP OF the current 220K deaths.

And if you're still willing to follow Trump off that cliff then you're a dangerous moron. Period.

#22 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 11:49 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

At this point, no blame can be put on politicians. Now, to stroke the Liberal ego and make sure you don't have to retreat to a safe space, you can blame Republican people for it no doubt. They are the stupid ones who are still trying to fight against covid precautions. But, unless you feel that politicians can personally attend to 300m people and want to spread that stupidity, most cases today are the cause of the people. Yes, I know, that concerns that pesky "personal responsibility" that Dems are trying their hardest to get rid of in this country, but that doesn't make it any less true.

#23 | Posted by humtake at 2020-10-23 11:52 AM | Reply

Yes, I know, that concerns that pesky "personal responsibility" that Dems are trying their hardest to get rid of in this country, but that doesn't make it any less true.

#23 | POSTED BY HUMTAKE

Another stupid talking point.

BTW you're missing the point if you think we only blame politicians.

We cast plenty of blame on stupid, ignorant Trumpers who do what he says.

#24 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 11:57 AM | Reply

"If the "better" case fatality rate remains at 2.6% (37% drop...yay!)"

Is there any hope the fatality rate can remain there or even go lower?

#25 | Posted by eberly at 2020-10-23 12:04 PM | Reply

Is there any hope the fatality rate can remain there or even go lower?

#25 | POSTED BY EBERLY

Maybe, but I'm not hopeful. Remdesivir did very poorly in the WHO trial. Gilead claims the trial was flawed but I haven't seen why they're claiming that.

There are antibody cocktails like those given to Trump from Regeneron but realistically they're not available for widespread use due to cost and simple issues with production of amounts needed.

That leaves us with standard of care when hospitalized and our current rates are under conditions of patients being treated because there was room for them in hospitals. That capability is probably going to change and, if anything, drive the rate up as beds and resources are depleted.

But that's just my opinion, an anonymous poster on a backwater (sorry rcade LOL) internet forum *shrug*.

#26 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 12:24 PM | Reply

#25

I already think the death rate is far below that. The fatality rate if figured strictly by reported cases and deaths is 2.6%.

225,000 deaths / 8.5 million reported cases = 2.6%

But, if the CDC is correct in its assessment that the actual number of cases may be 10X the number of confirmed cases, the fatality rate may be 10% of the above number, or .26%.

US coronavirus cases are probably 10 times higher than the official numbers, more and more research suggests

Just to be conservative, let's say actual cases are 5X the confirmed cases:

8.5 million X 5 = 42.5 million cases

225,000 deaths / 42.5 million cases = .0053 or .53% fatality

Or .265% fatality at the CDC's suggested 10X.

Though it effects those above a certain age at a far higher rate, I do not believe the actual total death rate from COVID in the US is more than 1%.

Worst case scenario, if the entire US population is infected, there would be less than 2 million deaths (still a substantial number that is not taken seriously enough by many). When this is done, there could also be tens of millions with long term health issues as a result of COVID.

#27 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 01:18 PM | Reply

More than 1,100 new deaths were reported Wednesday -- the highest daily toll in more than a month, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million

#8 | POSTED BY MAVERICK

Someone needs to break the sad news to Maverick that there is no recovery from death.

#28 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-10-23 01:24 PM | Reply

#27 That's a double edged sword.

We're also undercounting deaths.

Excess deaths compared to normal are only about 2/3 accounted for by COVID-19 fatalities. The other 1/3 is probably mostly undiagnosed COVID-19 deaths.

#29 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-10-23 01:26 PM | Reply

We're also undercounting deaths.

#29 | POSTED BY SNOOFY

That may be true. But if so, the death undercount is probably about 80,000.

So if total deaths are 300,000:

300,000 / 42.5 million = .007 or .7%

#30 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 01:44 PM | Reply

I already think the death rate is far below that. The fatality rate if figured strictly by reported cases and deaths is 2.6%.

You're comparing CFR to IFR.

It's a truism that CFR > IFR.

But CFR is based on numbers rooted in solid data, IFR is much for of a guess at this point.

#31 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 01:54 PM | Reply

*much more of a guess

#32 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 01:58 PM | Reply

#31 | POSTED BY JPW

The actual infection rate may be a guess. But it's also based on some data. An educated "guess"...

After the guesses of genuine researchers, I think I was being conservative at 5X the reported infections, but perhaps it is lower. Considering the number of asymptomatic cases, I'm certain actual cases are much higher than the reported cases. Without far wider and accurate antibody testing, we may not know the real numbers.

Do you have a better "guess"?

#33 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 02:09 PM | Reply

#31 | Posted by jpw

Your response to #27 highlights why it is so important that we layman listen to and trust the experts. There are a lot of misconceptions that are propagated by the general population (particularly Trumpers, but all of us non-experts to a lesser degree) that are leading to a false sense of security which leads to more illness and death and further hits on the economy.

#34 | Posted by horstngraben at 2020-10-23 02:11 PM | Reply

That may be true. But if so, the death undercount is probably about 80,000.

So if total deaths are 300,000:

300,000 / 42.5 million = .007 or .7%

#30 | Posted by Whatsleft

You accidentally calculated possible U.S. death rate based on worldwide cases.

300,000 deaths / 8,450,000 cases = .035%

#35 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-10-23 02:17 PM | Reply

You cannot calculate the fatality rate by using the total number of infected. You HAVE to use the number of dead and the number of recovered cases only. Active infections may or may not die. The current fatality rate is 4%, not 2.6%.

Coronavirus Cases: 8,688,980

CLOSED CASES: 5,896,630

Cases which had an outcome: 5,667,923 (96%)

Recovered / Discharged: 228,707 (4%) Deaths

#36 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 02:20 PM | Reply

The 5.66 million are recovered, only 228,707 have died.

#37 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 02:21 PM | Reply

More than 1,100 new deaths were reported Wednesday -- the highest daily toll in more than a month, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Recoveries reaching over 3.3Million
#8 | POSTED BY MAVERICK
Someone needs to break the sad news to Maverick that there is no recovery from death.
#28 | POSTED BY DONNERBOY

What DONNERBOY said AND that a significant portion of those who do recover do so with health consequences that will linger for the rest of their lives.

Someone needs to tell MAVERICK this virus is more like polio in that regard than it is the flu.

#38 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-10-23 02:23 PM | Reply

TONY

I think WHATSLEFT was referring to deaths including possibly under-counted deaths, not the reported death count.

#39 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-10-23 02:23 PM | Reply

Do you have a better "guess"?

#33 | POSTED BY WHATSLEFT

Nope. I'm reading the same information as you when it comes out.

The math doesn't change dramatically, though.

2.6% CRF with 80:20 asymptomatic:symptomatic @ 70% for "herd mentality"

330 million * 0.7 * 0.2 * 0.026 = 1.2 million deaths

.7% IFR @ 70% for "herd mentality"

330 million * 0.7 * 0.007 = 1.617 million deaths

Some Trumper might take issue with the 33% increase between the two, but I'd note that the higher number is in the stats more in line with their narrative and that, theoretically, we're in for another 1+ million deaths in the next year or so.

#40 | Posted by jpw at 2020-10-23 02:24 PM | Reply

You accidentally calculated possible U.S. death rate based on worldwide cases.
300,000 deaths / 8,450,000 cases = .035%

#35 | POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

No I didn't.

I calculated it based on the conservative estimate of 5X the reported US cases, as I did in my first comment at #27. I hope you read that comment.

#41 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 02:25 PM | Reply

#41 | Posted by Whatsleft

Gotcha. I missed the context.

#42 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-10-23 02:27 PM | Reply

#39

No, it seems everyone is taking the total number of infected and dividing into it the number of deaths. There are almost 3 million active cases right now included in the 8+ million.

You cannot calculate an accurate fatality rate until the infected either recover or die.

#43 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 02:28 PM | Reply

#41

You still did the same thing. You started with the total number of cases, then multiplied it by 5. The millions who haven't either cleared the virus nor died cannot be a part of any calculations of fatality rates. You can only base it upon those who died or those who no longer have the virus, period.

Why is this so hard to understand?

#44 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 02:31 PM | Reply

New Study: 130,000 Americans Dead Unnecessarily

130,000 COVID-19 dead would be alive today, but for more effective leadership from the Trump administration. And actually, that's the least bad estimate in the study, based on what might have happened if the U.S. had responded to the pandemic in the same manner that Canada did. If the U.S. had followed Germany's lead, it might have saved 179,000 lives. And if the U.S. had followed in the footsteps of South Korea, it might have saved 210,000 lives.

ncdp.columbia.edu

Any interest in diving into this, MADBOMBER?

#45 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-10-23 02:43 PM | Reply

The projected IFR (NOT CFR) for New York City when I calculated it based on the results of antibody testing (statistical from blood samples), came in at a surprising 2.0. NYC went first through this epidemic, though, and we all learned a lot from them and those that lost their lives.

The projected IFR from the CDC is estimated to be 0.5-1.0. This is still 5 to 10 times worse than the "flu" if the projections are correct.

#46 | Posted by YAV at 2020-10-23 03:16 PM | Reply

Just to be conservative, let's say actual cases are 5X the confirmed cases:

8.5 million X 5 = 42.5 million cases

225,000 deaths / 42.5 million cases = .0053 or .53% fatality

Or .265% fatality at the CDC's suggested 10X.

Though it effects those above a certain age at a far higher rate, I do not believe the actual total death rate from COVID in the US is more than 1%.

Worst case scenario, if the entire US population is infected, there would be less than 2 million deaths (still a substantial number that is not taken seriously enough by many). When this is done, there could also be tens of millions with long term health issues as a result of COVID.

#27 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 01:18 PM

As has already been pointed out, you used all cases in your calculation instead of those that are resolved, making your IFR too low. With your 5x undercount of infections, there would be only about 25M cases with a resolution, not 42M. Add in the undercount of deaths you used later, and you're now over 1% IFR.

0.01 x .7 x 325M = 2.2+M dead. More than 10x that number with permanent health effects.

I guess the good news is, if it's really spreading at 350k a day and accelerating, it won't take as long to get to the 70% infection level. 565 days at 350k/day, but it'd be exponential spread for a while, so maybe only another year. 2.2M dead in a year, just from CoViD-19. That's about the number of deaths from all causes in the U.S. in a year. I'm sure that won't have any negative impacts on the economy or anything. It also doesn't account for all the other effects from all the hospitalizations. If 2.2M died, at least 20M would have required hospitalization. I'm pretty sure the healthcare system would have been completely swamped long before that happened. Even if the CDC's estimate were correct, we're still talking about 10M requiring hospitalization in less than a year, each taking weeks to resolve assuming they got cared for. That's people dying in the streets kinds of numbers before you even add in all the other causes of death that would no longer be treated.

#47 | Posted by StatsPlease at 2020-10-23 05:06 PM | Reply

I forgot to add, that would also require that immunity gained from infection would last for at least a year, otherwise you get a lot of reinfections and more deaths.

#48 | Posted by StatsPlease at 2020-10-23 05:09 PM | Reply

CLOSED CASES: 5,896,630
Cases which had an outcome: 5,667,923 (96%)
Recovered / Discharged: 228,707 (4%) Deaths

#36 | POSTED BY TONYROMA

All right. Even with your numbers....

5,900,000 x a conservative but educated "guess" of 5 times the confirmed cases = 29,000,000

229,000 / 29,000,000 = .0079 or .79%

Unless you really believe every case has been confirmed, .79% is still far lower than 4%.

#49 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-10-23 06:26 PM | Reply

"So if total deaths are 300,000:
300,000 / 42.5 million = .007 or .7%"

^
Which suggests aboyt 1.5 million deaths until herd immunity threshold is reached.

Which fits nicely within the 1.1 - 2.2 million deaths throughout the pandemic, as predicted in the Imperial College Report back in March.

And that's a good example of why I listen to what scientists have to say. Because the epidemiologists already had the broad arc of this whole thing figured out -- seven months ago!

#50 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-10-23 06:37 PM | Reply

#49

You really should read #47. There is no data set based on the rest of the world that supports a 5X underreport of infected U.S. individuals. Our excess death totals don't support that as well and you don't factor in the death undercount in your calculation either. You can't pick one without the other imo.

The global fatality rate is also 4%. While I don't think it's that high if we had a truly accurate count, I don't think it's as low as you calculate either.

#51 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 07:06 PM | Reply

Best current example: South Korea

They have cleared 23,717 along with 455 deaths. I think most can agree that they are hyper-aggressive with their testing and tracing and likely don't miss many spreaders.

Their fatality rate is 1.882%, very close to 2%. So I'd say with as much certainty as possible from this point that the rate is way higher than less than 1%.

#52 | Posted by tonyroma at 2020-10-23 07:16 PM | Reply

So now we are having a 9/11 level catastrophe every three days in the Divided States of America under the Disastrous Cheerleadership of Trumpy, the Criminally Negligent.

Trumptilians must be so proud.

#53 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-10-24 01:40 PM | Reply

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