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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Wednesday, December 16, 2020

A Trump administration official sought to speed the spread of the coronavirus among children and young adults in order to achieve "herd immunity," according to documents released by a top House Democrat.

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...Paul Alexander, a senior adviser at the Department of Health and Humans Services, repeatedly encouraged adoption of a policy to increase the number of virus infections among younger Americans, saying they have "zero to low risk," according to documents released by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis....

"The issue is who cares? If it is causing more cases in young, my word is who cares," Alexander said in a July message....


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-12-16 02:26 PM | Reply

That's criminal incompetence. He should be sued if not indicted.

#2 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-12-16 02:38 PM | Reply

"my word is who cares"

Not caring is so much simpler.

#3 | Posted by Zed at 2020-12-16 02:39 PM | Reply

"The issue is who cares? If it is causing more cases in young, my word is who cares," Alexander said in a July message..

This is where the "business first" mentality is causing real harm and deaths in America. Their goal all along was to get ---- open to win an election and ignore the fact that a lot of people will die from it....including children. These corrupt incompetent ------- need to be held accountable for their actions.

DeathSantis using his gestapo to take down a woman providing COVID data while covering up the true numbers.

Lt Gov of TX saying to grandparents sacrifice themselves for their grandkids economy.

Fat Nixon and his crime family screaming about schools need to fully reopen while SIMULTANEOUSLY keeping their kids home.

It is clear that THERE IS NO SACRIFICE TOO GREAT FOR YOU TO MAKE to keep the cash flowing into their 1% pockets.

They are scum.

#4 | Posted by Nixon at 2020-12-16 02:46 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 4

not at all surprised

#5 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2020-12-16 02:48 PM | Reply

Science haters. This bullshhit has been going on since Reagan agreed to allow poor people to die to fund tax cuts. God'll get you for that.

#6 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2020-12-16 02:49 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

No one knows the LONG TERM effects of this virus.

A college ball player is in the hospital after collapsing on the court after coming back from a bout of the virus.

Kids blood vessels are damaged by the virus.

They are incompetent and uninterested in getting competent.

#7 | Posted by Nixon at 2020-12-16 02:49 PM | Reply

In any other era.... any other era...

This would be the cause for revolution, revolt, mass strikes but more than likely it would have never gotten this far down the devolution scale. People have been completely idiotized by disinformation and self-produced bubbles.

I mean the "Great War" WWI started over one dude getting shot. He wasn't even king yet.

3000 people dead led to a decade-long fixation of our entire way of life.

#8 | Posted by bocaink at 2020-12-16 02:55 PM | Reply

They are incompetent and uninterested in getting competent.
#7 | POSTED BY NIXON AT 2020-12-16 02:49 PM | FLAG:
(CHOOSE)

On second thought, they were so desperate to get kids back to school so that parents could back to work and keep the "Trump economy" going to support his reelection efforts that they didn't care how many got infected and died. The ultimate goal was to win reelection to keep the grift going and their cult leader out of prison. It think that's why we find ourselves in our current situation, the Regime spent so much time denigrating masks and lockdowns, downplaying the severity of the virus that now that we are at all-time highs for infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and now that we know that masks and lockdowns work (see Germany AND EVERY OTHER FIRST WORLD COUNTRY) they have no answer other than to cast doubt on the numbers.

#9 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-12-16 02:55 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I see "Dr." Scott Atlas' thinking in this ~ right from the first day he was hired to replace Dr. Fauci as Trump's advisor.

As for Paul Alexander, he's septic tank scum.

#10 | Posted by Twinpac at 2020-12-16 03:03 PM | Reply

@#7 ... No one knows the LONG TERM effects of this virus. ...

What little we know is not good...

The many strange long-term symptoms of Covid-19, explained
www.vox.com

...Long Covid "is a phenomenon that is really quite real and quite extensive," Anthony Fauci said earlier this month.

When Heather-Elizabeth Brown spiked a fever in April in Detroit, the only reason she was able to get a coronavirus test was because she was volunteering as a police chaplain and was therefore considered an essential worker. Her results came back negative, and she was relieved. But then, she says, "I just got sicker and sicker."

After being turned away from overcrowded ERs twice, Brown was eventually admitted on her third try. She finally tested positive, and by that point, she was severely ill. She was put on a ventilator and spent the next 31 days in a medically induced coma.

Before Covid-19, Brown was a healthy, active Black woman in her 30s. "But when I came off the ventilator, they had to coach me how to breathe." The smallest pleasures " like eating a sliver of ice after her feeding tube was removed " became something to treasure.

Six months later, Brown is still very ill. She has been hospitalized for blood clots and has lingering heart problems, nerve pain, and extreme fatigue. "Even making breakfast is now out of the question," she says. Most troublingly, she's still experiencing severe brain fog, which makes it hard for her to return to work.

Brown is just one of many previously healthy people whose life has been derailed after a Covid-19 infection. While early research on Covid-19 focused on its respiratory symptoms, we now know its impacts " both direct and indirect " can be much more extensive and relentless. ...


#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-12-16 03:04 PM | Reply

Sweden Reconsiders Failed Anti-COVID-19 Approach
www.veteranstoday.com

#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-12-16 03:06 PM | Reply

#9

I think you've hit the nail on the head. The oligarchs were trying to find a way to keep the economy moving, without further raising debt. Or without eventually having to pay for the relief by having their taxes raised. They still may win the later, depending on the outcome in GA.

They've never had any concern about how many might die or suffer permanent disability.

#13 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2020-12-16 03:09 PM | Reply

Our gov is pro biz, not pro peepz. We all know this. This is why Mitch wants protection for biz before aid for the poor.

#14 | Posted by Brennnn at 2020-12-16 03:13 PM | Reply

When I was a kid, parents used to intentionally expose their children to chicken pox. Is that still a thing?

Do parents now try to shield their kids from chicken pox? Does it even still exist?

#15 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-16 03:21 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

Apparently some parents still do expose their kids to chicken pox but chicken pox is not the same as the coronavirus not even close.

#16 | Posted by Tor at 2020-12-16 03:22 PM | Reply

So the anti-science republicans are all for herd immunity?

We're gonna be unraveling this sh*t-stained thread for years to come.

At the very least these folks should be barred from public office.

There's plenty of other nut jobs to spring up and take their place(s).

And that's the truth.

#17 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-12-16 03:24 PM | Reply

Turned out that getting the chicken pox can give you shingles later on in life, so you're better off getting vaccinated for chicken pox than being exposed and then having to get a series of shingles vaccinations or risk coming down with shingles.

I hope to god no parents are intentionally exposing their kids to chicken pox when there's a vaccine for it.

We were never intentionally exposed as kids. That would have been a stupid thing to do. I did get it, though.

#18 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-16 03:25 PM | Reply

Who knew that Mythbummer was a Trump Admin Official?

Or that he couldn't grok that letting people get infected would overwhelm the hospital capacities before there was even the possibility of the unlikely immunity?

#19 | Posted by Corky at 2020-12-16 03:32 PM | Reply

I'm going to say this one more time, for all the idiots that can't get this through their thick heads: you can't acheive herd immunity without a vaccine.

Now, before you argue, name ONE disease that has ever burned itself out (herd immunity) without a vaccine. Just one.

Polio? No.
Small pox? No.
Mumps? No.
Measles? No.
Chicken pox? No.
Cholera? No.
The flu? No.

And to make things worse about this news is Atlas admits there would be an increase in infections and deaths, but the plan was to "blame the Scientists."

---- this administration all to hell.

#20 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-16 03:33 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 7

"I'm going to say this one more time, for all the idiots that can't get this through their thick heads: you can't acheive herd immunity without a vaccine."

Well, that's where the 1.1 to 2.2 million dead by the end of the pandemic comes from.

Once about 70% or so people have gotten it, the dynamics bring R0 down below 1, and the pandemic ends. That's what gives us herd immunity; 70% of people getting sick, and 69% of them surviving.

So, that means around 250 million people will get it, and 1-2 million of them will die.

#21 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 03:39 PM | Reply

"Turned out that getting the chicken pox can give you shingles later on in life, so you're better off getting vaccinated for chicken pox than being exposed and then having to get a series of shingles vaccinations or risk coming down with shingles."

I don't know if there was a chickenpox vaccine when I was a kid. I had it in the early 1980s, born in 1975.

I don't remember my kids (born 2005, 2007) ever having it.

I did get shingles recently though. Kind of a pain in the ass. The doc said it was likely from too much physical strain. They have a vaccination for that as well, but the doc didn't give it to me.

The doc said I was unlikely to ever get it again. I'm not so confident. For about the last year, I've had what felt like a sunburn even when I hadn't been out in the sun. I think that's probably what it was.

#22 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-16 03:39 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Ya'll are gettin' all sciencey and factual with MB... don't you have any personal anecdotes that aren't evidence of anything?

#23 | Posted by Corky at 2020-12-16 03:43 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

"I'm going to say this one more time, for all the idiots that can't get this through their thick heads: you can't acheive herd immunity without a vaccine."

Yeah you can.

How do you think the Spanish Flu ended?

It wasn't from a vaccine.

#24 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-16 03:44 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

Ended?
Flu season hits every year.

#25 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 03:46 PM | Reply

How do you think the Spanish Flu ended?

Ended? As in, what were the results?

"The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide"about one-third of the planet's population"and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans."

www.history.com


Of course. The population of 1918 and 2020 are vastly different.

But. You don't care either way.

#26 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-12-16 04:01 PM | Reply

"The population of 1918 and 2020 are vastly different."

Trump should have banned all those boats coming from China!

Actually if we still crossed continents and oceans on boats, it would do a lot to stop the spread. It's kind of a built in quarantine. Lile that cruise ship from back in the early part of the year, that finally let passengers off somewhere around Oakland.

#27 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 04:07 PM | Reply

So...to be very clear...the Spanish Flu pandemic ended as a result of herd immunity.

No vaccine. Fact.

#28 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-16 04:10 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

"the Spanish Flu pandemic ended as a result of herd immunity."

It did?

Only 30% community infection is enough for herd immunity from H1N1, with a R0 between 2 and 3?

Can I see your math?

#29 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 04:20 PM | Reply

Building and staffing the prisons needed to lock up all of the people from the Trump admin who deserve it should be a huge boost to the economy.

#30 | Posted by johnny_hotsauce at 2020-12-16 04:21 PM | Reply

All while telling the American people that it's under control, it's harmless, it's going away...

Trump and Co. believe that murderers should receive the death penalty by firing squad. Now so do I.

#31 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2020-12-16 04:25 PM | Reply

Trump knew. Woodward has the recording.

#32 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2020-12-16 04:26 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Piss off and die, DT.

#33 | Posted by Jaspar at 2020-12-16 04:32 PM | Reply

"I'm going to say this one more time, for all the idiots that can't get this through their thick heads: you can't acheive herd immunity without a vaccine."

Yeah you can.
How do you think the Spanish Flu ended?
It wasn't from a vaccine.

#24 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

Yav mentions idiots who can't get it through their thick heads and MB chimes in right on cue.

#34 | Posted by johnny_hotsauce at 2020-12-16 04:33 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Trump lied,people died. Get him a body bag. With a big yellow T on it. He needs to be held accountable in the only way he understands.

Death. Or long term imprisonment,which would probably be more painful.

#35 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-12-16 04:33 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#25 ... Ended?
Flu season hits every year. ...

'The 1918 flu is still with us': The deadliest pandemic ever is still causing problems today
www.washingtonpost.com

...Over time, those who contracted the virus developed an immunity to the novel strand of influenza, and life returned to normal by the early 1920s, according to historians and medical experts. Reports at the time suggest the virus became less lethal as the pandemic carried on in waves.

But the strand of the flu didn't just disappear. The influenza virus continuously mutated, passing through humans, pigs and other mammals. The pandemic-level virus morphed into just another seasonal flu. Descendants of the 1918 H1N1 virus make up the influenza viruses we're fighting today.

"The 1918 flu is still with us, in that sense," said Ann Reid, the executive director of the National Center for Science Education who successfully sequenced the genetic makeup of the 1918 influenza virus in the 1990s. "It never went away."...


#36 | Posted by LampLighter at 2020-12-16 04:51 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

"Spanish people get the flu all the time! That's the point I'm trying to make, right?!?"

-MB

#37 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-12-16 05:02 PM | Reply

"Chickens don't seem to have any troubles with chicken pox - that's evidence of voter fraud."

-MB

#38 | Posted by LostAngeles at 2020-12-16 05:03 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

The Spanish flu ended with mask-wearing and social distancing. That's a fact.

It's the clOwns making that a political issue.

#39 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2020-12-16 05:06 PM | Reply

"The doc said I was unlikely to ever get it again."

Yer doc's a moron.

Good fit fer you, I reckon.

#40 | Posted by Angrydad at 2020-12-16 05:10 PM | Reply

How do you think the Spanish Flu ended?
It wasn't from a vaccine.

#24 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

It didn't.

It became the endemic seasonal strain for the next 20 years and is still a seasonal strain along with H3N2 and 2009 H1N1.

#41 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-16 05:17 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

BTW that's what is likely to happen with COVID. It will become an endemic season infection with case loads that wax and wane each year depending on the level of immunity present in the population.

The pandemic only really "ends" by the virus no longer being novel and simply being part of our virome.

#42 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-16 05:22 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

And to make things worse about this news is Atlas admits there would be an increase in infections and deaths, but the plan was to "blame the Scientists."
---- this administration all to hell.

#20 | POSTED BY YAV AT 2020-12-16 03:33 PM | FLAG: RECEIVED | NEWSWORTHY 1

This makes my blood boil.

I wish MAGA would just wake the f up and rip this cult of Trump government to shreds, burn down their operations and hoist the American flag instead of the stars and bars. Instead they will "blame the scientists".. Can I just officially become a Chinese citizen and donate my organs now rather than have a failed Trump policy dictate they can be harvested by Chase Manhattan?

#43 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2020-12-16 05:57 PM | Reply

A good article... (and very true)

www.rawstory.com

#44 | Posted by earthmuse at 2020-12-16 06:04 PM | Reply

My mistake on Atlas - it was Alexander:

Consistent with a "herd immunity" approach, the evidence obtained by the Select Subcommittee shows that Dr. Alexander privately acknowledged to other appointees that "[w]e always knew" that "cases will rise" as a result of the Administration's policies. Yet even as he advocated for letting the coronavirus spread widely, Dr. Alexander also attempted to pass blame for the Administration's failure to contain the virus to career scientists and public health officials. He also urged colleagues to suppress scientific information about the risk posed by the virus to minority communities that he admitted was "very accurate" out of concern that it would be "use[d] against the president."

coronavirus.house.gov

And to add to it "We need also to tout the good stories as we know of elderly with serious conditions who get it and survive ... this is key to tell ... "

www.nbcnewyork.com

#45 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-16 06:10 PM | Reply

The fact they have now determined virtually all children get it and no matter how minor the case (including asymptomatic) suffer from damaged arteries - think of this like in the 40-50 year old crowd with heart disease - makes this criminal in my book. At the very least sue this fool and any other fool pushing for herd immunity through infection into oblivion for the damages done.

#46 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2020-12-16 06:20 PM | Reply

virome

I had to look that up. Didn't help much. :-)

#47 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-12-16 06:44 PM | Reply

It's like genome. I guess? Part of the living environment? Present and accounted for by everyone.

#48 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-12-16 06:57 PM | Reply

Viruses are sort of the Ghost In The Machine of life. Because they're not alive, and they don't exactly reproduce by making copies of themselves the way living things do, but they are certainly a huge part of life

Viruses are a biological analogue of the Grey Goo problem.

#49 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 07:22 PM | Reply

It's like genome. I guess? Part of the living environment?

I assumed that. Just looked at the details and bailed.

#50 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-12-16 07:29 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

It's some pretty cool stuff, but I suppose it can't be everyone's cup of tea.

Genomics made me a fan of biology. Before that I thought it was just kinda flaky, with a pretty arbitrary basis on how decisions are made. DNA changed that.

#51 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-12-16 07:54 PM | Reply

but I suppose it can't be everyone's cup of tea.

One of my family has a MS in biochemistry and has been an MD for 40 years, another has a PhD in microbiology.

I'm a coal miner and just make really big holes in the ground. Well, I shoot radar profiles of holes other peeps make.

We don't have a lot of work talk at family gatherings. :-)

#52 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-12-16 08:45 PM | Reply

I'd Democrats hadn't raised the alarm about Covid.

Trump would have gladly buried the information about it and allowed people to continue life unaware.

#53 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-12-16 08:59 PM | Reply

It's like genome. I guess? Part of the living environment? Present and accounted for by everyone.

#48 | Posted by Effeteposer

The human virome is simply the population of viruses present in humans, even if they don't cause disease or aren't found in all people.

#54 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-16 10:46 PM | Reply

"Can I see your math?"

Technically, it's not my math. It's someone else's.

"Eventually, the frequency of the cases of Spanish Flu saw a gradual decline as people started developing herd immunity -- a phenomenon where more number of people in a community get infected, and in the process of recovery, develop antibodies against the virus."

www.indiatimes.com

#55 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 12:58 AM | Reply

"It became the endemic seasonal strain for the next 20 years and is still a seasonal strain along with H3N2 and 2009 H1N1."

That's a great point.

Technically, the Spanish Flu is probably better known as swine flu, which has been in and out over the last century. The most recent outbreak having occurred in 2009.

#56 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 01:01 AM | Reply

"Yav mentions idiots who can't get it through their thick heads and MB chimes in right on cue."

Is this where you explain how a vaccine ended the Spanish Flu pandemic?

#57 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 01:02 AM | Reply

The pandemic of 1918-1920 ended because it wiped out so many - they died. It ended because it mutated, became less virulent, and went into the pig population. It ended because the war ended (the reasons for the spread are too often ignored), the recession ended - in short there were a lot of reasons.

I think it's ridiculous to assert that "herd immunity" is the reason the 1918 flu ended because we still can't achieve anything near what's required for herd immunity with the vaccines we have for influenza and with the infections we have. We certainly won't do it with SARS-CoV-2. Not unless you want a lot of people to die, and a lot of people to have

I get you want it to be true because you're so wedded to the idea of "herd immunity" but even Sweden's given up on that insanity.

BtW - there is quite a history of this on the CDC's website. www.cdc.gov

But hey, I could be wrong. I've certainly been wrong before.

#58 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 09:03 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

and a lot of people to have compromised health and quality of life, not to mention "post-recovery" death as a result (due to myocarditis, for example).

#59 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 09:13 AM | Reply

So...to be very clear...the Spanish Flu pandemic ended as a result of herd immunity.
No vaccine
. Fact.
#28 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER AT 2020-12-16 04:10 PM | REPLY | FUNNY:

I can't believe you cling to the herd immunity concept after 300,000 DEATHS over almost twelve months straight.

If we cannot consistently make the naturally occurring short-term antibodies what makes you believe we can naturally develop the longer-term version?

How many re-infections prove this?

#60 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2020-12-17 09:53 AM | Reply

Republicans think the economy will collapse under Biden. Hasn't it already collapsed?

Republicans think Democrats will resort to socialism. Hasn't Donald already given out trillions in socialism?

A pandemic is ravaging the nation, the Russians have hacked our computers.

The economy is destroyed.

The President has attacked our elections and divided the country.

Donald works for Putin.

#61 | Posted by iloveyou at 2020-12-17 11:18 AM | Reply

No vaccine. Fact.
#28 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

Because it was before vaccines were discovered.

We didn't even know what a virus was. It was too small to see.

They had no choice. We do.

Fact.

#62 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-12-17 11:48 AM | Reply

The fact that a vaccine is actually part of herd immunity is lost on so many people. How do you think a vaccine works?

#63 | Posted by humtake at 2020-12-17 12:01 PM | Reply

#63 - I have no idea where you got that idea, but I clearly laid it out in #20.

If you're joining in, then welcome to reality!

Maybe you can bring MadBomber along with you?

MadB, if you're still haranguing that disproven idea of yours, I recommend you read this:
www.nature.com

#64 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 12:12 PM | Reply

"The fact that a vaccine is actually part of herd immunity is lost on so many people."

Nice try at trump splaining away maddumber's ignorance of medical history.

That's not the "herd mentality" Trumpy and his hateful ignorant minions were talking about. That's not the "herd mentality" that stopped the Spanish flu. It ran out of victims. Or it mutated. Or both.

The vaccine is part of our arsenal against the virus. Which still includes wearing a mask especially around vulnerable people until we defeat the virus completely in America. Or it mutates. But this is a novel virus which means we don't know if it will ever mutate away unless you can starve it from victims or it kills them all. And even if we defeated it here it can still come back.

Letting the virus burn thru your population knowing how many will die knowing you can stop it just by wearing a mask is criminally negligent.

#65 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-12-17 12:13 PM | Reply

The ' Coronavirus Task Force' didn't meet for months. Trump hasn't assembled his cabinet since May.

What a traitorous dereliction of duty by someone who took an oath to protect America. Most of his appointees too.

"Let them eat ventilator tubes" - King Donald

#66 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2020-12-17 12:31 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

People - we will never produce our own antibodies for this strain. This means yearly inoculation.

What I implied regarding vitamin D synthesis and direct sunshine months ago appears to now have some scientific merit in preventing the infection.

So take your D, omit HFCS and get some sun.

#67 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2020-12-17 12:37 PM | Reply

From the link cited in post #64:

But epidemiologists have repeatedly smacked down such ideas (herd immunity). "Surrendering to the virus" is not a defensible plan, says Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. Such an approach would lead to a catastrophic loss of human lives without necessarily speeding up society's return to normal, he says. "We have never successfully been able to do it before, and it will lead to unacceptable and unnecessary untold human death and suffering."

Despite widespread critique, the idea keeps popping up among politicians and policymakers in numerous countries, including Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. US President Donald Trump spoke positively about it in September, using the malapropism "herd mentality". And even a few scientists have pushed the agenda. In early October, a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists released a document called the Great Barrington Declaration. In it, they call for a return to normal life for people at lower risk of severe COVID-19, to allow SARS-CoV-2 to spread to a sufficient level to give herd immunity. People at high risk, such as elderly people, it says, could be protected through measures that are largely unspecified. The writers of the declaration received an audience in the White House, and sparked a counter memorandum from another group of scientists in The Lancet, which called the herd-immunity approach a "dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence"3.

Arguments in favour of allowing the virus to run its course largely unchecked share a misunderstanding about what herd immunity is, and how best to achieve it. Here, Nature answers five questions about the controversial idea.

#68 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 02:00 PM | Reply

"But hey, I could be wrong. I've certainly been wrong before."

You're not wrong. Herd immunity didn't end the "spanish" flu. It's still here today, and ever other decade or so there is a reasonably significant outbreak. And tens of thousands of people die of the flu each year. But what herd immunity was able to accomplish is ending the pandemic.

I should have made that more clear.

#69 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 02:20 PM | Reply

The fact that a vaccine is actually part of herd immunity is lost on so many people. How do you think a vaccine works?

#63 | POSTED BY HUMTAKE

Trump and his fellow murderers didn't know when a vaccine would be available and they didn't care.

A future vaccine hasn't exactly helped the thousands dying on a daily basis.

#70 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2020-12-17 02:27 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"I can't believe you cling to the herd immunity concept after 300,000 DEATHS over almost twelve months straight."

I feel like herd immunity is a pretty well established phenomenon. You can read about it in the article that Yav posted in #64.

"That's not the "herd mentality" that stopped the Spanish flu. It ran out of victims."

Running out of victims is herd immunity.

#71 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 02:30 PM | Reply

"How many re-infections prove this?"

According to National Geographic, it's a few hundred cases worldwide. Out of a total of around 73.7 million.

#72 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 02:33 PM | Reply

"Letting the virus burn thru your population knowing how many will die knowing you can stop it just by wearing a mask is criminally negligent."

So is every president in the last century negligent?

The flu results in millions of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths each year. I don't recall any president in my lifetime demanding that the population wear masks to prevent the spread of flu.

#73 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 02:35 PM | Reply

"Trump and his fellow murderers didn't know when a vaccine would be available and they didn't care."

That's EXACTLY why you would pursue a policy based on society reaching herd immunity.

We have what appears to be a viable vaccine now, so there's no more need to pursue a naturally occurring herd strategy against COVID than there is to pursue the same for Swine Flu. But there was never any temporal limit to the COVID pandemic. And under conditions where there is no vaccine available, lock downs and isolation only delay the inevitable, killing far more than if you had gotten it over with quickly. And that's just the cost to human life. Extended lock-downs would have left otherwise developed nations turning into failed states. By the time herd immunity was achieved, the survivors would have inherited a defunct society that had little in common to the one that ended in March of 2020. And that's if the lock-downs didn't result in actual shooting wars.

Americans are actually pretty lucky, IMO. When this thing is over, society is going to look different, but not that different. In other places in the world, such as here in Germany, I think that some traditions and cultural practices may be gone for good. or at least for the time being. Maybe some day they'll be revived in a nod to cultural history.

#74 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 02:46 PM | Reply

#73

Any attempt to compare influenza for which the symptoms, treatments and outcomes are well understood and for which a vaccine exists to supplement our bodies natural immune response that we have evolved over millennia to a novel virus for which we have very little understanding of symptoms, treatments or outcomes for which we do not even know yet if our bodies develop lasting immunity and until very recently had no vaccine for are the words of a thick-headed idiot.

#75 | Posted by johnny_hotsauce at 2020-12-17 03:04 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#75

So it's OK if 35 million people get the flu, resulting in a million hospitalizations and 60K+ deaths?

Is it a numbers thing? Is there a numeric threshold for deaths or new cases that should trigger a response?

#76 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 03:10 PM | Reply

Personally, I think it's been an irrational response to fear.

If you're under age 55, you have a better chance of dying in a car accident than you do of dying from COVID.

#77 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-17 03:12 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

-The flu results in millions of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths each year.

Add tobacco and alcohol related illness and deaths to that total.

We accept that.

#78 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 03:21 PM | Reply

We accept that.
#78 | POSTED BY EBERLY

We accept personal responsibility. There's a choice in consuming tobacco and/or alcohol. There is no choice in contracting a virus or disease.

Distinction with a clear difference.

#79 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-12-17 04:05 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

So it's OK if 35 million people get the flu, resulting in a million hospitalizations and 60K+ deaths?

60K is one year. Choosing that way of presenting data you could have been as honest and picked 12,000. The average is 35,000.

We have vaccines for the flu, and I get mine every year.
There's no dispute that COVID is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu.
Why this need to equate flu with a much more deadly disease? You are rationalizing so much it's working against you.

You also mischaracterized herd immunity, though I appreciate you citing the citation I had in my post.

#80 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:07 PM | Reply

"There is no choice in contracting a virus or disease."

And you're saying personal responsibility is irrelevant regarding contracting COVID?

What about all these right wingers getting COVID in droves? There's a thread on it every day here. And we blame it all on choice.

Take Herman Cain, for example. He made the choice to attend a huge event rampant with COVID and very few, if any, wearing masks nor social distancing. He didn't have to be there. He could have made the choice to not attend and stay home in his mansion with his millions.

but he made a choice to expose himself to the virus.

#81 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:10 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Smoking's not permitted in public in almost any location in the U.S. now.
You can't drive drunk.
You can't be in public and be intoxicated.
I don't get that attempt at equivalence at all.

How is that even relevant to COVID?

#82 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:11 PM | Reply

-We accept personal responsibility.

Some of us do...some of us ignore personal responsibility also.

My point is that we accept all of it......and have forever.

#83 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:12 PM | Reply

Eberly - you are smarter than that. That's got to be trolling. If not, think past the choice of the event and what happens afterwards - and how people all over the U.S. died who didn't go all because of Trump's rallys and his fans "choice."

#84 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:13 PM | Reply

-I don't get that attempt at equivalence at all.

that we legally allow folks to buy and smoke cigs and kill themselves and cost the rest of us hundreds of millions every year in costs as well.

we also allow people legally buy alcohol, drink themselves to death, incur more and more in health costs for the rest of us.

I agree with the mitigation you mention regarding public risks....but they aren't eliminating the risks.

How's it related to COVID?

Risks........

#85 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:15 PM | Reply

You'd have a point if you went to the store, bought SARS-CoV-2 and injected it into your body, and it didn't become contagious.

Then I'd be fine with Trump supporters (or anyone) going to a Trump rally and everyone there shooting up.

#86 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:18 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

My point is that we accept all of it......and have forever.
#83 | POSTED BY EBERLY

Are you completely ignoring Prohibition and the societal consequences that led to it being overturned?

#87 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-12-17 04:20 PM | Reply

"Add tobacco and alcohol related illness and deaths to that total."

Tobacco and alcohol related illnesses aren't contagious. Secondhand smoke can cause illness in nonsmokers, which is why smoking is banned in most public spaces.

#88 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-12-17 04:21 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

This is the problem I have with Republicans - and always have had with them. They are selfish to a ridiculous and insane level. They can't see past their own noses.

I'm selfish as a liberal. The difference is I know that poor people getting infected and spreading disease will affect me. I want everyone to be immunized so my risk is minimized.

I want the poorer folks to have food, and I want safety nets, so they don't get weak and then sick, and spread disease for just being malnourished. See the Flu of 1918 if you doubt that statement.

#89 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:22 PM | Reply

Drunk driving, which can harm nondrinkers, is also against the law.

We accept that.

#90 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-12-17 04:23 PM | Reply

#88 - Exactly! It is so obvious that it makes discussion painful!

#91 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-17 04:24 PM | Reply

We accept that.
#90 | POSTED BY GAL_TUESDAY

Actually, in terms of EBERLY's context as I understand it, no we don't. Drunk driving is illegal with stark punishments, depending on the state you live in.

#92 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-12-17 04:25 PM | Reply

Yav, I'm not trying to equate COVID with alcohol, drugs, tobacco, etc. I understand where there is no comparison.

I'm just pointing out that as a society, we've been accepting of risks to the health and lives of our citizens in many areas where we could take action.

And the number of deaths and illnesses annually bear that out.

I'm in risk management for a living. I think people forget how much risk we tolerate every day when they rail on and on about COVID.

That doesn't mean I disagree with what steps we have taken to reduce COVID risk...because I do agree with what we're doing (despite what a MASSIVE pain in the ass it is with kids in school right now).

#93 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:25 PM | Reply

GAL -

never mind.

#94 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2020-12-17 04:26 PM | Reply

Yes, we accept that drunk driving is punished and smoking in public places is prohibited, but somehow we can't accept wearing a mask during a pandemic to mitigate risk. That's my point.

#95 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2020-12-17 04:26 PM | Reply

-It is so obvious that it makes discussion painful!

then take an advil.

I'm looking past "fault" and reducing it all to risk.

I'm not ignoring fault as though it's irrelevant.....I was close to someone who died of COVID through NO fault of their own. I understand the distinction.

#96 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:28 PM | Reply

There is a distinction between someone who smokes their brains out and dies of a heart attack vs someone who irresponsibly gives COVID to someone else who dies from it.

But, it's 2 deaths, both preventable and both from taking risk and well....losing the bet.

Our society accepts these risks and always have.....just keep that in mind.

#97 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:38 PM | Reply

-Are you completely ignoring Prohibition and the societal consequences that led to it being overturned?

Not at all.

#98 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-17 04:44 PM | Reply

If Trump confirms that he thought this is a good idea we may actually have a concrete case for negligent homicide charges against Donald Trump.

#99 | Posted by Tor at 2020-12-17 08:10 PM | Reply

That's a great point.

Technically, the Spanish Flu is probably better known as swine flu, which has been in and out over the last century. The most recent outbreak having occurred in 2009.

#56 | Posted by madbomber

2009 H1N1 was a novel virus. It had some avian gene segments IIRC.

Influenza coming from pigs is actually quite common IIRC because swine are infected by both avian and human viruses. So they can mix (technically called reassortment) and you end up with novel viruses in people.

I knew it played a role in 2009, but wasn't aware that it was involved in the 1918 pandemic.

#100 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:02 AM | Reply

People - we will never produce our own antibodies for this strain. This means yearly inoculation.

What are you talking about?

People absolutely make antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 during infection. That's never been a debate.

The debate is whether the antibody-mediated immunity lasts longer than it does for other human coronaviruses, where it's thought to wane over time.

www.livescience.com

This study suggests it doesn't really wane and that people often get reinfected asymptomatically repeatedly over time. Probably what will happen with SARS-CoV-2.

#101 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:12 AM | Reply

That's EXACTLY why you would pursue a policy based on society reaching herd immunity.

No no no.

Herd immunity is an end, not a means.

It's also a concept used in the context of vaccinology. Natural infections do not reach the standard that the scientific community would consider herd immunity.

#102 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:18 AM | Reply

And under conditions where there is no vaccine available, lock downs and isolation only delay the inevitable, killing far more than if you had gotten it over with quickly.

Absolutely, completely, 110% BS. Not even close to true.

The "herd mentality" approach has failed in the only place it was tried.

In the end, you have to have the same level of immunity (about 70% of the population), whether it be by infection or vaccine.

0.8% of people die from natural infection. 0.0% die from vaccines.

That's about 1.8 million deaths vs 0 deaths for those keeping score.

And that doesn't account for increases in lethality due to lack of medical resources.

So, no, "getting it over quickly" doesn't make things better.

#103 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:25 AM | Reply

So it's OK if 35 million people get the flu, resulting in a million hospitalizations and 60K+ deaths?

There's nowhere close to 60+K deaths per year from influenza.

The influenza numbers are estimates. It says it in the fine print of any table you read from the CDC.

And the average number of estimated influenza deaths per year is about 35K.

www.cdc.gov

#104 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:36 AM | Reply

Influenza PANDEMICS coming from pigs is actually quite common

Sorry, people getting influenza from pigs isn't that common, which is what I wrote.

Looking at a few papers it seems there is even some question as to whether the swine to humans transmission is the primary driver behind the 20th century influenza pandemics.

#105 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 12:44 AM | Reply

"60K is one year. Choosing that way of presenting data you could have been as honest and picked 12,000. The average is 35,000."

So is 12k, or 60k, 0r 35k and acceptable number of deaths if it means Americans don't have to live in a sustained lock-down? What about masks? How many of those 12k-60k would not have died if people had been forced to wear masks? Should people in the future, even after COVID is as under control as it's going to get, be forced to wear masks?

#106 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:52 AM | Reply

"Are you completely ignoring Prohibition and the societal consequences that led to it being overturned?"

For the sake of this argument, yes. Just like supporters of lock-downs disregard the societal consequences of sustained isolation.

You kill the wolf closest to the the sled. Right now the goal is to prevent the next case of COVID at any cost.

I say that as someone living overseas. The US appears to have limited, localized lock-downs, so the threat of damage caused by sustained lock-downs is likely much lower there than here.

#107 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:56 AM | Reply

"Actually, in terms of EBERLY's context as I understand it, no we don't. Drunk driving is illegal with stark punishments, depending on the state you live in."

Something being illegal doesn't prevent it from happening.

If it weren't for alcohol, driving wouldn't be so much more deadly than COVID for those under age 55. 37% of car accidents occurred when at least one driver had been drinking.

#108 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:59 AM | Reply

"Absolutely, completely, 110% BS. Not even close to true. The "herd mentality" approach has failed in the only place it was tried. In the end, you have to have the same level of immunity (about 70% of the population), whether it be by infection or vaccine."

I think you may have missed my point.

Assuming that there is no vaccine coming in the short-term, you would need to reach that 70% threshold through infection alone. The question then becomes, do you rip the band-aid of quickly, or extended it out with the intent of experiencing lesser pain for a longer period of time? My position would be that you do it quickly, with delaying tactics only being employed when the healthcare system was being overrun. Of course that's where the government could step in with relative ease and relieve some of that overflow by activating military guard and reserve units who would be well positioned to handle those problems.

Now there is no apparent need to pursue natural herd immunity. It will come via vaccination. Seemingly within the next few months. The only question remaining is whether you vaccinate those at high risk of susceptibility, most of whom have a lower risk of exposure, or those at high risk of exposure with a lower risk of susceptibility?

#109 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 01:09 AM | Reply

"Assuming that there is no vaccine coming in the short-term"

Why would any government assume that up front? All that does is guarantee a lot more people would get infected, a lot more people would die, and hospitals would've been completely overrun, possibly to the point of civil unrest.

Compare that with a scenario where the President doesn't make mask-wearing a political statement. You'd have a lot fewer dead and millions fewer facing possible long-term pulmonary problems, and the vaccine would've still arrived on the same day it did.

#110 | Posted by Danforth at 2020-12-18 01:14 AM | Reply

#106 | Posted by madbomber

You ignored the critical part of my post, namely that those numbers are estimates.

Talk to a doc who works in a medical center/hospital. Influenza season is never anywhere close to this.

And I wouldn't be surprised if masks become more common as we move forward and we find influenza season is much reduced by this simple measure.

#111 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 01:17 AM | Reply

Assuming that there is no vaccine coming in the short-term

There is so it's an academic question at best.

And as was beaten to death above herd immunity isn't a phenomena seen under conditions of natural infection. Reliable immunity at levels sufficient to achieve herd immunity is achievable via vaccination only.

The only question remaining is whether you vaccinate those at high risk of susceptibility, most of whom have a lower risk of exposure, or those at high risk of exposure with a lower risk of susceptibility?

#109 | Posted by madbomber

The latter. High exposure risk means higher risk of contracting COVID and spreading it.

#112 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 01:24 AM | Reply

" Influenza season is never anywhere close to this."

It couldn't possibly be: at today's rate, we're having an average year's worth of flu deaths (31K) every ten days.

#113 | Posted by Danforth at 2020-12-18 01:51 AM | Reply

It couldn't possibly be: at today's rate, we're having an average year's worth of flu deaths (31K) every ten days.

#113 | POSTED BY DANFORTH

They are impervious to math. Or logic.

I'm hoping he talks to somebody who's dealing with the hell every day and wakes the ---- up.

#114 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 02:11 AM | Reply

"I wouldn't be surprised if masks become more common as we move forward and we find influenza season is much reduced by this simple measure."

I've long believed this will be a much milder flu season, due to all the hand-washing, staying inside, and physical avoidance.

#115 | Posted by Danforth at 2020-12-18 02:20 AM | Reply

^"a much milder flu season" than average

#116 | Posted by Danforth at 2020-12-18 02:20 AM | Reply

I've long believed this will be a much milder flu season, due to all the hand-washing, staying inside, and physical avoidance.

#115 | POSTED BY DANFORTH

That's what has been observed in multiple countries.

www.cdc.gov

#117 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 02:42 AM | Reply

So is 12k, or 60k, 0r 35k and acceptable number of deaths if it means Americans don't have to live in a sustained lock-down? What about masks? How many of those 12k-60k would not have died if people had been forced to wear masks? Should people in the future, even after COVID is as under control as it's going to get, be forced to wear masks?

Better ban driving and alcohol and, hell, even being black in the United States, right? I mean while we're making ludicrous comparisons, anything goes.

You are the one comparing 310,000 deaths so far in less than one year to influenza deaths of 35K.

As to your melodramatic "be forced to wear masks" strawman? I guess if you can't argue on facts and what's actually been said, you can always make up something false, assign it to me, and then argue that. Just don't expect me to play that silly game of lies.

#118 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 08:15 AM | Reply

JPW - the article I linked (Nature) in #64 has some interesting observations on prison populations and immunity. There's also a reference to Manaus, Brazil:

"In September, two groups of researchers posted preprints suggesting that Manaus's late-summer slowdown in COVID-19 cases had happened, at least in part, because a large proportion of the community's population had already been exposed to the virus and was now immune...

'We show that the number of people who got infected was really high " reaching 66% by the end of the first wave,' Sabino says. Her group concluded that this large infection rate meant that the number of people who were still vulnerable to the virus was too small to sustain new outbreaks " a phenomenon called herd immunity. Another group in Brazil reached similar conclusions"

and then...

"In Manaus, mortality rates during the first week of May soared to four-and-a-half times what they had been the preceding year. And despite the subsequent excitement over the August slowdown in cases, numbers seem to be rising again. This surge shows that speculation that the population in Manaus has reached herd immunity "just isn't true", Andersen says."

and finally:

Deaths are only one part of the equation. Individuals who become ill with the disease can experience serious medical and financial consequences...

Yet somehow MadBomber cited my citation as evidence forherd immunity:
I feel like herd immunity is a pretty well established phenomenon. You can read about it in the article that Yav posted in #64.

#119 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 08:23 AM | Reply

Context:

Herd immunity is a very real phenomenon, but not without vaccines, which is what I said from the start in number 20.

#120 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 08:25 AM | Reply

I'm sure the Trump Troglodytes
thought of this as just another
way to suppress the vote of the
poor and minorities... Utterly
reprehensible and without the
slightest shred of morality...

#121 | Posted by earthmuse at 2020-12-18 09:33 AM | Reply

"Why would any government assume that up front?"

Because of the timelines associated with formulating a vaccine. Typically it takes as long as ten years. And there is really no feasible way you could effectively maintain a lockdown for even a fraction of that.

"You'd have a lot fewer dead and millions fewer facing possible long-term pulmonary problems, and the vaccine would've still arrived on the same day it did."

That's valid if there were a temporal limit to the pandemic. We more or less have that now. We did not have that in March, nor was there any way to know that there would be a vaccine in December of 2020.

Here's the other thing. You're making the assumption that someone who died of COVID would have otherwise lived. For instance, if someone on hospice catches COVID and dies, they'll almost certainly be listed as a COVID death. But they were already considered terminal by the virtue of the fact that they had been placed on hospice. In which case they would not have survived 2020 even if there had not been a pandemic. A clear picture of that won't be available for a while, if ever.

#122 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 11:13 AM | Reply

"And as was beaten to death above herd immunity isn't a phenomena seen under conditions of natural infection. Reliable immunity at levels sufficient to achieve herd immunity is achievable via vaccination only."

If that were true, the Spanish Flu pandemic would have continued until 1938, when the first vaccine became available.

But the Spanish Flu pandemic ended in April 1920. So if it wasn't herd immunity, then what was it?

#123 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 11:23 AM | Reply

"The latter. High exposure risk means higher risk of contracting COVID and spreading it."

I would agree, but with a couple of caveats. First, would the initial doses coming available be enough to make an impact on that demographic, and second, does a vaccination prevent you from being a carrier/spreader.

#124 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 11:25 AM | Reply

"You are the one comparing 310,000 deaths so far in less than one year to influenza deaths of 35K."

So just to be clear, it is a numbers game then. 35K is below the threshold where a government should be required to take action. What would that threshold actually be then? And what would constitute the conditions of that threshold? Is it deaths? It most parts of the world, the number of deaths hasn't been a significant policy driver. It's been cases. It could also be infections, which would be very hard to drill down on, given that the vast majority of those infected don't exhibit symptoms.

#125 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 11:29 AM | Reply

The mRNA research has been happening over the last 30 years. A vaccine for covid was developed in January 2020 using that research. Had to wait for trials and testing.

Also, Excess Deaths base line is higher than last year, even with covid deaths removed. Any cause of death labelled as covid but was something else is going to be a really tiny percentage. If anything, covid deaths are being under counted.

#126 | Posted by Daniel at 2020-12-18 11:30 AM | Reply

So just to be clear, it is a numbers game then. 35K is below the threshold where a government should be required to take action. What would that threshold actually be then? And what would constitute the conditions of that threshold? Is it deaths? It most parts of the world, the number of deaths hasn't been a significant policy driver. It's been cases. It could also be infections, which would be very hard to drill down on, given that the vast majority of those infected don't exhibit symptoms.

#125 | Posted by madbomber

The answer is - as low as possible.

If the gov did nothing this virus would drown our hospitals and millions would die.

That doesn't happen with the flu.

#127 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-12-18 11:42 AM | Reply

The mRNA research has been happening over the last 30 years.

#126 | Posted by Daniel

And somewhere republicans were whining that we should be cutting taxes instead of wasting money on scientific research.

If we'd have listened to them many more would die.

#128 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-12-18 11:43 AM | Reply

If MB becomes a member of the infected herd, his attitude will change. Count on it.

#129 | Posted by getoffmedz at 2020-12-18 11:54 AM | Reply

If MB becomes a member of the infected herd, his attitude will change.

Didn't change donald or ghouliani.

#130 | Posted by REDIAL at 2020-12-18 12:00 PM | Reply

"I've long believed this will be a much milder flu season, due to all the hand-washing, staying inside, and physical avoidance."

I agree completely

#131 | Posted by eberly at 2020-12-18 12:03 PM | Reply

But the Spanish Flu pandemic ended in April 1920. So if it wasn't herd immunity, then what was it?

Answered already.
Citations provided.

#58
#64

#132 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 12:10 PM | Reply

So just to be clear, it is a numbers game then.

It's always a numbers game, or to be more precise, a probabilities game. Risk management and mitigation. The issue you're avoiding is the value you place on human life versus what I place on it.

35K is below the threshold where a government should be required to take action.

Your statement makes no sense given all we do with PSAs and the CDC's work in reducing influenza outbreaks.

We have flu vaccines and programs for communities to help reduce influenza and reduce associated problems like pneumonia. The goal is to practically drive the negative impact as low as possible for many reasons - from productivity to health care costs to quality of life.

#133 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 12:22 PM | Reply

"Answered already. Citations provided."

#58-No link, "This page cannot be found"

#64-No mention of the Spanish Flu that I could find.

#134 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:24 PM | Reply

Anyone else have trouble with the CDC link in #58?

#135 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 12:35 PM | Reply

"It's always a numbers game, or to be more precise, a probabilities game. Risk management and mitigation.

I would agree, but risk management first requires risk assessment. Aggregate risk encompasses both risk of exposure and risk of susceptibility. For the vast majority of people, risk of exposure is relatively high, but the risk of susceptibility is not. So their risk calculus is going to look very different than someone who is at a higher risk of susceptibility. What many countries (not the US-writ large) is apply a blanket policy based on the risk to those who are most susceptible, which has resulted in those at low risk of susceptibility seeing their lives upended.

"The issue you're avoiding is the value you place on human life versus what I place on it."

I'm approaching it from a different situation than you are. Many parts of Europe have been in lock down since mid-fall. Germany went into lockdown in the beginning of November, and hard lockdown this week. Now, absolutely everything that is not considered an essential service has been ---- down. So hopefully people already had their Christmas shopping done. But Europeans will spend the next few months, at least, locked in isolation. Those that are fortunate enough to have a job that is considered essential will be allowed to work. Other than that, they are not permitted to travel more than 9 miles from their residence.

Americans are more fortunate. There are some who will experience this sort of upheaval, but far fewer than in Europe.

#136 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:35 PM | Reply

#135

If you just post the text hyperlink I can copy and paste.

#137 | Posted by madbomber at 2020-12-18 12:36 PM | Reply

I'm approaching it from a different situation than you are. Many parts of Europe have been in lock down since mid-fall. Germany went into lockdown in the beginning of November, and hard lockdown this week. Now, absolutely everything that is not considered an essential service has been ---- down. So hopefully people already had their Christmas shopping done. But Europeans will spend the next few months, at least, locked in isolation. Those that are fortunate enough to have a job that is considered essential will be allowed to work. Other than that, they are not permitted to travel more than 9 miles from their residence.

Americans are more fortunate. There are some who will experience this sort of upheaval, but far fewer than in Europe.

#136 | Posted by madbomber

Yeah we're so FORTUNATE that we have leaders that don't give a damn if we die.

Republicanism - where it's better to for you and your family to die than to have big government tell you to wear a mask and stay home for a couple months.

#138 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2020-12-18 12:40 PM | Reply

Take Herman Cain, for example. He made the choice to attend a huge event rampant with COVID and very few, if any, wearing masks nor social distancing. He didn't have to be there. He could have made the choice to not attend and stay home in his mansion with his millions.

but he made a choice to expose himself to the virus.

#81 | POSTED BY EBERLY

He was working for Donald j Trump.

Was it really a choice?

I think Not, not if he wanted to keep his job.

#139 | Posted by donnerboy at 2020-12-18 12:43 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Take Herman Cain, for example... he made a choice to expose himself to the virus.

And a week after he died from COVID, Zombie Herman Cain tweeted that Covid is not dangerous.

#140 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-12-18 12:46 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

But the Spanish Flu pandemic ended in April 1920. So if it wasn't herd immunity, then what was it?

Answered already.
Citations provided.
#58
#64
#132 | POSTED BY YAV

He's just cycling through talking points because he has nothing new to bring to the conversation.

#141 | Posted by ClownShack at 2020-12-18 12:48 PM | Reply

#141 - yeah.
It's not interesting.
Thanks for the reminder.

#142 | Posted by YAV at 2020-12-18 01:29 PM | Reply

If that were true, the Spanish Flu pandemic would have continued until 1938, when the first vaccine became available.
But the Spanish Flu pandemic ended in April 1920. So if it wasn't herd immunity, then what was it?

#123 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

You seem to be under the impression that pandemics have a hard end.

They end when case loads drop and the virus becomes endemic.

1918 influenza was the dominant seasonal strain until the 1950s and remains a seasonal strain today.

en.wikipedia.org

Yes, population level immunity played/plays a role in that, but you don't have true herd immunity, which is defined as sufficient immunity to suppress spread of a disease.

Considering H1N1 is still around and infecting people year after year there clearly isn't herd immunity.

#143 | Posted by jpw at 2020-12-18 02:38 PM | Reply

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