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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Sunday, April 11, 2021

Chicago lumber futures surged past $1070 per thousand board to a fresh record high as demand is outstripping supply. Since last spring lumber prices have risen 180% as the stay-at-home lifestyle has encouraged homeowners to expand or remodel their existing dwellings and low mortgage rates exacerbated the home-building spree.

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More from the article.

...Meanwhile, recent wildfires in California and Oregon and freezing temperatures in Texas had increased the number of homes needing to be built and limited domestic supply....

Those darn space lasers...


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2021-04-11 02:39 PM | Reply

Holding some EVA which has a current 6.26% yield about wood pellets [not lumber for building], but the I am in for the yield.

By comparison [yield] - 10 Year Treasury Rate is at 1.67%

#2 | Posted by MSgt at 2021-04-11 05:41 PM | Reply

Damn nice yield MSGT just added it to my watch list, I'm not adding any to the market currently as I'm expecting a correction over the next month or two but anything over 4 yield is something I want in my portfolio. Wish you had mentioned it March 26th 2020.

$MO and $IRM both are a bit higher but not much and diversity is a good thing.

#3 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2021-04-11 06:20 PM | Reply

Damn I guess I better go get that lumber I wanted for planters and a work bench.

#4 | Posted by jpw at 2021-04-11 09:13 PM | Reply

Boaz's lumber prices aren't however surging.

#5 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2021-04-11 09:38 PM | Reply

A sign of the coming boom, isn't it? My local Republican Congressman won't talk about it. His focus is on complaining about the child abuse on the border he ignored totally 1016-2020.

#6 | Posted by Zed at 2021-04-12 10:19 AM | Reply

A great economy will help bury Trumpism. The likely amazing economy will make most people piss on its grave.

#7 | Posted by Zed at 2021-04-12 10:20 AM | Reply

-A sign of the coming boom, isn't it?

not necessarily. It's a sign of the current environment but it's a cycle that will reverse.

This has been going on for a while. Once supply catches up, the prices will fall.

#8 | Posted by eberly at 2021-04-12 10:26 AM | Reply

A better economy was quite predictable given the usual cycle of things the past 40 years.

I notice nobody brags about Trump's GDP numbers over his tenure, likely because they were in the same region as Obama's numbers, which Trump and then his idiot parrot base derided as weak performance.

#9 | Posted by jpw at 2021-04-12 10:27 AM | Reply

#3 | POSTED BY TAOWARRIOR AT 2021-04-11 06:20 PM | REPLY: IRM is one of the holdings in my portfolio which consists of 19 stocks, 4 MLPs, one ETF {QQQ} and one Vanguard mutual fund. Plan to add to some I already hold and 5 new ones which I have been following. Mostly have mine set up for income/cash flow to supplement retirement monies whereas my younger wife's 401k is more biased toward growth.

Note: None in bonds/notes as their 'rate of return' is not worthy IMO at their current rates.

#10 | Posted by MSgt at 2021-04-13 01:25 PM | Reply

You should look at $MO for dividend income as well 6.46 if I'm recalling correctly.

$CSCO is also nice lower dividend 2.?? but solid growth so it acts as a nice combo stock for both growth and income.

As always though this is not investment advice I'm a college dropout who fixes fireplaces so listening to investment advice from me is a level of dumb matched only by Blockbuster laughing off Netflix's offer to sell for 50 million.

#11 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2021-04-13 02:02 PM | Reply

I have a fireplace that needs fixing. Actually a cracked chimney.

#12 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2021-04-13 02:50 PM | Reply

A few weeks ago I was looking at some lumber for raised beds in the garden. A standard 8' 2x4 here was 6.59 then. They have been high and haven't come down. That same 2x4 was about 1.95 prior to COVID. We won't get into the larger piece pricing... Prices are expected to surge again soon. Cabinet makers are talking about cabinet prices jumping 20% next month.

On the bright side... There are Amish lumber mills within a "reasonable" drive around here. I can go get a rough cut true 2x4 for 1.15 last time I checked. The problem is they are rough cut and not kiln dried which works for somethings but not others.

#13 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2021-04-13 04:40 PM | Reply

#12

Only gas fireplaces sorry. Depending on your area I might know some people around you, it's a pretty small industry and I got into it doing wholesale nationwide so I got to know a lot of sweeps around the country before I got out of sales and into service.

#13

Our HO insurance went up this year and the increased cost of lumber raising the rebuild cost was one of the stated reasons. I'm also hearing from some of the builders I work with that costs are going up, since a lot of places they are building were pre-sold that's putting the squeeze on their margins. They are trying to cut costs everywhere including us. Fortunately we didn't have much of a price increase but we are running into long lead times. Unfortunately we don't have much margin to cut to help the builders out so while we have been able to avoid increasing we can't get them any better pricing.

I wouldn't be happy if I had pre-bought one of the homes going up today though as the quality has almost certainly come down from where it was, and lets be real a lot of those production home companies didn't have much quality to start with. It's amazing to me my house was built in the early 70's and the quality is far above new homes. Yes they have some better materials to work with and codes are a bit tighter and more enforced but the overall quality is still better in my house than even high end ones going up today. My neighborhood is getting a lot of tear downs and I just don't get it, keep the old house and renovate sure but tear down a solid build for the junk they are throwing up now is dumb.

#14 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2021-04-14 06:29 AM | Reply

#14 | Posted by TaoWarrior

Tear downs/new builds all over Nashville too. Home prices have shot through the roof the past couple of years. Every house that hits the market is snapped up quickly, usually in a bidding war. Our home valuation went up 16% just in the last 30 days. Been 5-10% a month for a couple of years. It's crazy. Seems to be happening in a lot of other locales across the country too.

#15 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2021-04-14 07:09 AM | Reply

Our HO insurance went up this year and the increased cost of lumber raising the rebuild cost was one of the stated reasons.

Sounds like many of us should be expecting a letter from our home insurance companies. Seems like the prices of everything are suddenly on the rise.

If the Fed raises interest rates, home values will probably fall. 16% a month increases in existing home valuations like we've seen aren't sustainable.

#16 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2021-04-14 07:31 AM | Reply

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