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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, September 02, 2021

NHC's 2021 season prediction pretty much right on the money so far.

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"My name is Larry...my name is Larry"

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#1 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2021-09-02 11:01 AM | Reply

Actual hurricane Larry now according to the chart.

#2 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2021-09-02 11:40 AM | Reply

It identifies as Laura.

#3 | Posted by HanoverFist at 2021-09-02 11:56 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Actual hurricane Larry now according to the chart.

True, but major hurricane is Cat 3 and up... not there yet.

#4 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-02 12:00 PM | Reply

Looks like it's just gonna spin off into the Atlantic.

#5 | Posted by jpw at 2021-09-02 02:41 PM | Reply

@#4 ... not there yet. ...

Looks like it may get there Saturday.

#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2021-09-02 02:41 PM | Reply

@#5 ... Looks like it's just gonna spin off into the Atlantic. ...

That's what was said about Henri at a similar early stage. But a wind pattern change aimed it at western Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut.

Larry looks a bit more formidable, so I do hope it stays out there with the fishes....



#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2021-09-02 02:44 PM | Reply

Somewhere a butterfly flapped its wings.

#8 | Posted by jakester at 2021-09-02 02:48 PM | Reply

The above was a quote from Erik Larson's book, "Isaac's Storm". It is an account of the infamous Galveston hurricane in 1900. It is an excellent book, written in typical Erik Larson style. If you've read any of his other books, you know what I mean.

In it he briefly touches on the chaos theory and how very small changes can trigger a huge event. This applies to weather in general and in this case specifically hurricanes.

"a butterfly in a West African rain forest, by flitting to the left of a tree rather than to the right, possibly set into motion a chain of events that escalates into a hurricane striking coastal South Carolina a few weeks later"

A butterfly in Africa may have killed 6,000 people in Galveston.

#9 | Posted by jakester at 2021-09-02 02:55 PM | Reply

Looks like it's just gonna spin off into the Atlantic.

Probably, but they don't care where they go when they count storms.

#10 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-02 03:20 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#5 ... Looks like it's just gonna spin off into the Atlantic. ...

Moreso this morning.

There looks to be a cold front pushing it north-eastward around the time it nears Bermuda.

Still lots of time for the pattern to change, though.


#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2021-09-03 12:23 PM | Reply

Cat 2 now.

#12 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-03 06:06 PM | Reply

Larry has graduated to major hurricane status... 3rd of the season.

#13 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-03 10:50 PM | Reply

#13 - but like a dog with no teeth, Larry has no bite.

#14 | Posted by jakester at 2021-09-03 10:51 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

NHS initially predicted at least 7 hurricanes in 2021 (Larry is #5) and 3 major hurricanes (Larry is #3).

I just like to see how accurate their forecasting is.

#15 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-03 11:03 PM | Reply

#15 - I'm sure it's accurate. NOAA usually concurs with hurricane forecasts. It's not really in their best interest to fudge data and probability forecasts.

#16 | Posted by jakester at 2021-09-03 11:48 PM | Reply

I meant comparing NHC pre-season predictions with actual events. They are pretty good at that these days.

#17 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-04 12:09 AM | Reply

#17 - forecasting aggregate events is pretty easy. El Nino? Warm west Africa westerlies? Specifics are iffier.

#18 | Posted by jakester at 2021-09-04 12:16 AM | Reply

Well lot's of folk screech that NHC predictions are way overblown and don't pan out. For the most part, they do.

#19 | Posted by REDIAL at 2021-09-04 12:51 AM | Reply

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