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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Saturday, November 13, 2021

Eric Topol: America is in denial about what lies in store for it. The US thinks it will be immune' to what is happening in Europe. That's wishful thinking.

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Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD

Thread: What lessons should the U.S. and world learn from the rising Covid cases in parts of Europe, and especially the recent surge in a highly vaccinated country like Germany; and what risks and cautions could Germany's recent experience foretell for the U.S.

NY Times November 11, 2021: "Germany's Fourth Covid Wave: A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated' - Germany once set an example for how to manage the coronavirus. Now, deep pockets of vaccine resistance are helping drive daily infections to new heights."

twitter.com

#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2021-11-12 10:03 PM | Reply

Good link, Gal.

"Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD

13h
While Germany has high vax rate (67% fully vaxxed) it's concentrated among older individuals, and little coverage among kids. So, it has big pockets of low coverge. Germany has not authorized vax for under 11, and only authorized 12-17 in Aug when Delta first started to tick up"

#2 | Posted by YAV at 2021-11-12 10:33 PM | Reply

Need to look at more than just case loads.

graphics.reuters.com

In the past waves of deaths followed very closely with case numbers.

We're not seeing that spike with the current trends. Will it go up some because of time lag? Maybe. Probably. But it seems that it's being blunted quite well by vaccination and accumulating natural immunity.

#3 | Posted by jpw at 2021-11-13 09:34 AM | Reply

and better treatments.

#4 | Posted by visitor_ at 2021-11-13 09:36 AM | Reply

There aren't really any treatments available now that weren't for the past 8-10 months.

Monoclonal treatments have been more widespread but that's really the best one. Remdesivir isn't terribly effective nor widespread.

There are two antivirals recently reporting trial results but they're not in widespread use yet.

#5 | Posted by jpw at 2021-11-13 09:39 AM | Reply

#3- interesting chart. Thanks JPW.
You can look at the spikes and the hysteresis to get a rough estimate of the lag. In the past, early on, I was seeing a fairly consistent 23 day lag for US data. Now it looks closer to a month +. Maybe due to better therapeutics and treatments?

It still seems to be holding with the latest data. It just isn't as obvious yet with the scale. Give it two more weeks and it will be apparent, I bet.

#6 | Posted by YAV at 2021-11-13 09:49 AM | Reply

Maybe due to better therapeutics and treatments?
More likely due to the ages of those infected?

#7 | Posted by YAV at 2021-11-13 09:50 AM | Reply

But even accounting for that lag the trend is towards less death per peak.

The second peak (almost as high as the previous peak in the graph) was April 24.

Deaths in late May were about 1/3 the previous peak and falling.

Predictions that delta would be the last major wave are clearly wrong and I think premature given we hadn't gone through traditional influenza season yet.

But the key test will be whether hospitals are as overrun as they were with delta, who were largely unvaccinated/non-immune southerners.

As caseloads shift north I'll be watching the hospitalization/death stats as the norther states are far more vaccinated than the south.

#8 | Posted by jpw at 2021-11-13 10:01 AM | Reply

I see your point better now.
Yes, I agree. We're not out of this at all:

The two largest hospital systems in Albuquerque, New Mexico, have already (this week) activated crisis standards of care.

Stupid decisions by idiots like DeSantis aren't helping:

"Tampa Bay Times: Florida Ordered 90,000 Child Vaccine Doses. Texas Ordered 1 Million.
Florida health officials say they preordered approximately 90,000 child-size doses of the Pfizer vaccine. That's enough to fully vaccinate 3 percent of Florida's approximately 1.7 million children ages 5 to 11. Texas, another Republican-led state, preordered 1 million doses " enough to fully vaccinate over 17 percent of the state's children in the same age group. California preordered 860,000 doses, enough to fully vaccinate 13 percent of kids there. (Hodgson and Wilson, 11/11)"

That while CBS News reports "Once-Healthy Kids Struggling With Symptoms Months After COVID-19 Infection"

khn.org

#9 | Posted by YAV at 2021-11-13 10:12 AM | Reply

Yesterday's COVID counts:

128,000 positive tests
2044 deaths

Because of unvaccinated fools.

#10 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2021-11-13 11:39 AM | Reply

Hey jpw, I'm kind of confused by Pfizer ending their test on that antiviral drug there's Midway through a trial. Doesn't it kind of defeats the purpose of having a drug trial?

#11 | Posted by Tor at 2021-11-13 11:40 AM | Reply

#11 There's two reasons to stop a drug test.
One is the cure is worse than the disease.
The other is the drug is working so well it would be unethical to keep it wrapped up in red tape when it could save lives now.

#12 | Posted by snoofy at 2021-11-13 11:43 AM | Reply

STATS: https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+10+us&source=hp&ei=7emPYfiPM-aWwbkP7fi5uAI&iflsig=ALs-wAMAAAAAYY_3_RXE6b-rN0nNbwtFD37bwsJOphyi&oq=covid+10+us&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBQgAEJECMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjoECAAQQzoHCAAQsQMQQzoICAAQgAQQsQM6BwgAEMkDEEM6CggAELEDEIMBEEM6CAgAEIAEEMkDUABYmgxgrg1oAHAAeACAAYQBiAHKCJIBAzIuOJgBAKABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz&ved=0ahUKEwi4uuWZ45X0AhVmSzABHW18DicQ4dUDCAg&uact=5

This pandemic will continue to infect and kill.

Now, it's infecting the white-tailed deer population, providing the virus ample opportunities to mutate.

How SARS-CoV-2 in American deer could alter the course of the global pandemic

Scientists have evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spreads explosively in white-tailed deer and that the virus is widespread in this deer population across the United States.

Researchers say the findings are quite concerning and could have vast implications for the long-term course of the coronavirus pandemic.


#13 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2021-11-13 11:46 AM | Reply

^ That escalated quickly.

#14 | Posted by snoofy at 2021-11-13 11:47 AM | Reply

"SARS-CoV-2 in American deer"

There's another virus we've all learned to live with (or die with) that finds a home in multiple species.
It's called the influenza virus.
And it's why we (are encouraged to) get a new flu shot every year.
So, that's very possibly the way that coronavirus will go.
It will become endemic, and will at times give rise to epidemics -- once the pandemic is over.

Which isn't really unexpected, it's just an Inconvenient Truth that a whole lot of people can't seem to wrap their heads around.
Mostly because they are selfish morons.
See Also: Global Warming.

#15 | Posted by snoofy at 2021-11-13 11:50 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

If you stop a drug trial you can't claim to have all the data which I think is necessary to go to the next stage.

#16 | Posted by Tor at 2021-11-13 02:47 PM | Reply

"If you stop a drug trial you can't claim to have all the data which I think is necessary to go to the next stage."

It's rare, but there are times when the results you're getting are so dramatically good, and the needs are so immediate, the project jumps ahead, often moving the placebo group into one actually getting the drug.

#17 | Posted by Danforth at 2021-11-13 02:59 PM | Reply

Will the aborted test results be accepted by the FDA and all the other agencies that have to approve the mass production of this medication for it to do good nationally?

#18 | Posted by Tor at 2021-11-13 04:15 PM | Reply

"Will the aborted test results be accepted by the FDA"

They'll see the data, yes.

Again, keep in mind this is extremely rare, but one good example would be for late-stage cancer drugs. If folks are dying from X, and the test group shows the target group is getting 6-12 extra months of relatively pain-free life versus the placebo group, it would be unconscionable not to switch the placebo group to a target group.

#19 | Posted by Danforth at 2021-11-13 05:41 PM | Reply

I'm glad to know that the medical community basically agrees with what I concluded in the third grade.

The rules change when a person is actively dying and we shouldn't have as many if any rules when it comes to drug use.

#20 | Posted by Tor at 2021-11-13 05:57 PM | Reply

I can't speak for anyone else but I can't wait for there to be readily available anti covid Drugs in My County.

#21 | Posted by Tor at 2021-11-13 05:58 PM | Reply

"we shouldn't have as many if any rules when it comes to drug use."

You're joking, right? That's why there are two dead in NM from ivermectin poisoning. You want more?

#22 | Posted by Danforth at 2021-11-13 06:32 PM | Reply

The rules change when a person is actively dying and we shouldn't have as many if any rules when it comes to drug use.

#20 | POSTED BY TOR

Actually, those conditions are where we should have very stringent rules.

Why?

Because desperate people are vulnerable people.

Which is why we're seeing this IVM nonsense play out like it is.

#23 | Posted by jpw at 2021-11-14 10:44 AM | Reply

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