Brynn Tannehill
@BrynnTannehill
I'm telling you now how this is going to go down:
About a week after the decision to overturn Roe is released, AG Paxton in TX will release an opinion that TX is not bound by Obergefell. 1/n
Within days, Abbott will issue an executive order instructing clerks not to issue new marriage licenses to same sex couples.
He may or may not instruct state officials to cease honoring existing licenses for same sex couples. 2/n
There's likely to be some language about determining legality of marriages based on sex listed on original, un-amended birth certificates.
State courts will affirm legality of Abbott's actions in light of Jackson's Women's Health decision. 3/n
They'll probably win at the District Court level. Regardless, it will get appealed to the 5th Circuit, where Abbott will win, 100% guaranteed. Whereupon it ends up in front of SCOTUS, which has already signaled they regard Obergefell as being on unconstitutional grounds. 4/n
We will see Obergefell die in 2024. The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) has been planning this ever since it became apparent that Roe v. Wade was going down. Most conservative state AGs have relationships with the organization. 5/n
I have specific intel that this is the plan for how to expedite the destruction of Obergefell starting in early to mid-July. The official release of the decision starts the clock ticking.
It is unknown when they will begin targeting Lawrence.
Cassandra has spoken. 6/n
