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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, July 15, 2022

Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times/Siena College survey of the cycle.

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"The Times/Siena survey is not the first to suggest that the national political environment has improved for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. On average, Democrats have gained about 3 points on the generic congressional ballot compared with surveys taken beforehand.

Some of the hot-button cultural issues thought to work to the advantage of Republicans at the beginning of the cycle, such as critical race theory, have faded from the spotlight. Only 4% of voters combined said education, crime or immigration was the most important issue facing the country."

;

It ain't over 'till the fat orange man goes to Sing Sing.

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2022-07-15 01:44 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The fascists on the Supreme Court cost the GQP both houses of Congress in 22 and 24 and cost them the presidency in 24.

#2 | Posted by a_monson at 2022-07-15 02:26 AM | Reply | Funny: 2

You are really dumb, A Monson.

#3 | Posted by BellRinger at 2022-07-15 02:28 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

" Democrats have gained about 3 points on the generic congressional ballot ... "

And probably another 3 when "generic" becomes "Greitens" or "Oz", and another 5 if it becomes "Walker".

#4 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 02:34 AM | Reply

#4 You think Republicans are turned off by people like that?

#5 | Posted by JOE at 2022-07-15 05:04 AM | Reply

41% said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40% who preferred Republican control

So, given the tendency of Dems to be more talk than action and for Repubs to be ashamed of their beliefs and hate the MSM, I'm going to call it a sweep for Repubs.

#6 | Posted by censored at 2022-07-15 08:17 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#6 Not to mention the structural advantages Republicans have in the Senate and several key states that require Dems to win by a lot more than 1% to actually gain a majority. This poll is actually bad news for Dems.

#7 | Posted by JOE at 2022-07-15 09:52 AM | Reply

I've got pessimists on my team!

#8 | Posted by Corky at 2022-07-15 11:12 AM | Reply

#8 Make the case for optimism. I'm all ears!

#9 | Posted by JOE at 2022-07-15 12:12 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

RCP has started their poll-tracking for Congress...

Lemme get the links...

Battle for the Senate 2022
www.realclearpolitics.com

Battle for the House 2022
www.realclearpolitics.com


#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-07-15 01:22 PM | Reply

Just looking out across the board and the way it is currently set up, it does look like the Dems will extend their control of the Senate. Hershel Walker and Mehmet Oz are not gonna get the Senate flipped for the GOP.

#11 | Posted by moder8 at 2022-07-15 01:58 PM | Reply

I've got pessimists on my team!

#8 | POSTED BY CORKY

What you would call pessimism, I would call pragmatic.

And what you would call optimism, I would call delusional.

#12 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2022-07-15 02:21 PM | Reply

"it does look like the Dems will extend their control of the Senate."

But, once again, only because Republicans are intent on "Todd Aiken-ing" themselves.

#13 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 02:34 PM | Reply

"You think Republicans are turned off by people like that?"

No, but I think swing voters are.

#14 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 02:35 PM | Reply

@#14 ... swing voters ...

The suburban swing voters, especially the female suburban swing voters have been saying they are more concerned (as in, very concerned) about the SCOTUS abortion decision than the inane behavior of some Republicans.

Whether that concern lasts until Election Day remains to be seen.


#15 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-07-15 02:41 PM | Reply

"...they are more concerned (as in, very concerned) about the SCOTUS abortion decision than the inane behavior of some Republicans."

Any turn of a macro dial in a storm.

#16 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 02:52 PM | Reply

@#16

On the other hand, the political ads have not yet started to run in saturation mode.

When the Republicans start running their ~crime wave~ ads that helped them so much on 2020 with suburban swing voters, will that be enough to move the needle?

Probably better to come back to this topic after Labor Day... :)


#17 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-07-15 03:08 PM | Reply

"...the political ads have not yet started to run in saturation mode."

True; there will be some haymakers, from both sides.

#18 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 03:14 PM | Reply

No, but I think swing voters are.

I have a theory about the obsessively catered-to "swing voter." I think there are less and less of them as news media becomes so much more pervasive and people harden in their opinions. I also think that there are so, so many more non-voters who can be activated by extremist candidates than there are swing voters.

I have zero data to back this up, it's just the way i see our society tilting. There used to be people who vote but didn't consume political news and could be swayed one way or the other by a clever campaign. I think with everyone staring at facebook and twitter all day, that sort of person is much less common.

#19 | Posted by JOE at 2022-07-15 03:59 PM | Reply

@#19 ... I think there are less and less of them as news media becomes so much more pervasive and people harden in their opinions. ...

I've thought about that as well but, like you, I've got nothing to substantiate it. Yet there does seem to be substantiation about the suburban swing voter effect being affected by prevailing winds.

Also, redistricting tends to make swing voters less important, as the ole ~divide and conquer~ mantra settles in.

Also, also, in 2020 there seemed to be some people telling pollsters one thing, but voting differently, almost as if there were an intentional effort to reduce the accuracy of the polls.


#20 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-07-15 04:29 PM | Reply

"The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty." " Winston Churchill

Trump will holding a Rally in Washington in a couple of weeks, maybe to announce his candidacy.

Whether he does or not, Republicans, all of them, own him now.

And half of them don't even want him to run. Nor do most Indies or moderates.

Even with gerrymandering and voter restrictions, this contest is up for grabs for whichever party can gin up the turn out.

Which might possibly require a bit of optimism rather than pessimistic disdain.

#21 | Posted by Corky at 2022-07-15 04:42 PM | Reply

" there does seem to be substantiation about the suburban swing voter effect being affected by prevailing winds."

Pretty much every time the tally changes.

For example: Why the 9pt swing between Warnock's lead and Abrahams' deficit, in the same electorate?

#22 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-15 04:49 PM | Reply


Here in CT, there's a CT district, the 5th, that Pres Biden won by about 12% yet, even with an incumbent Democrat, is listed as toss-up in RCP. ( www.realclearpolitics.com )

I've forgotten which party was the last to gerrymander that district....


#23 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-07-15 05:06 PM | Reply

Republicans are plotting investigative revenge on the January 6 Committee if they take control of the House in 2023. They are tossing around the threat of subpoenas if they don't get compliance from members of the Jan 6 Committee.

www.cnn.com

Considering that republicans are dodging subpoenas from the Jan 6 Committee, what in the hell makes them think that dems would comply with any subpoenas that they issue when they won't comply with subpoenas that dems issue? In fact, their requests might even backfire! It would give dems even more of an opportunity to go on the offensive in a completely public forum, the dreaded "main stream media" and potentially accentuate any and all information that was previously disclosed.

Republicans are like mad dogs; they are foaming at the mouth to bite something; anything; not recognizing that they plan to do will cause damage to themselves in the process.

#24 | Posted by FedUpWithPols at 2022-07-16 06:48 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The GOP will go 24/7 on Hunter Biden and Joe Biden corruption - not to mentioned digging into Pelosi's stock trading

If there is corruption to be exposed, I'm all for it!!! Period. Maybe if more politicians are looking over their shoulders instead of their portfolios, they could collectively focus more on issues that help people.

Laws need to be passed that eliminates dark money and more severely restricts how campaign finances are spent i.e. campaign finances should only be spent on campaigns of the candidate for which they were raised; campaign war chests must be spent down by a certain percentage each year; campaign finances used for legal expenses must reimbursed by the candidate if the candidate is found guilty, etc.

#26 | Posted by FedUpWithPols at 2022-07-16 09:49 AM | Reply

How anyone could vote for a Republican after the 2008 worldwide economic collapse caused by G.W. Bush amazed me. How anyone could vote for them after Donald Trump is stupid is truly stupefying.

#28 | Posted by TFDNihilist at 2022-07-16 02:50 PM | Reply

Stupid voice to text on this phone sucks, I need to remember to proofread.

#29 | Posted by TFDNihilist at 2022-07-16 02:51 PM | Reply

"I would prefer a law in which only money raised locally can be spent on local elections "

Can you also guarantee local laws only impact locals?

#30 | Posted by Danforth at 2022-07-16 03:41 PM | Reply

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