Jobs shocker! 528,000 Jobs added, unemployment 3.5%

Friday, August 05, 2022

The numbers The U.S. added a surprisingly strong 528,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to pre-pandemic levels in a muscle-flexing display for the economy, but the robust report could add to inflation worries and push interest rates even higher. Every major sector increased employment. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6%, the government said Friday, matching the lowest level since the late 1960s.

Posted by YAV at 09:15 AM | 24 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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Great news - but with an edge. Will the Fed raise interest rates to slow down the economy?

#1 | Posted by YAV at 2022-08-05 10:09 AM | Reply

So it looks like the answer is a definite yes!

#2 | Posted by YAV at 2022-08-05 12:39 PM | Reply

@#1 ... Will the Fed raise interest rates to slow down the economy? ...

The Fed has two main goals: low unemployment and low inflation.

Chmn Powell has said, repeatedly, that the Fed will target inflation.

I think the question now looks like, 75 or 100 basis points in September?

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-08-05 01:28 PM | Reply

100 easy if it keeps up at this level I'd bet.

#4 | Posted by YAV at 2022-08-05 02:06 PM | Reply

@#4

That's my guess as well.

But between now and then, there is time for the data to change...

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-08-05 02:10 PM | Reply

@#4 ... 100 easy if it keeps up at this level I'd bet. ...

My reason for agreeing is that the wages are growing very quickly, indicating that companies are having difficulty filling all the open positions.

Chmn Powell has to slow the economy to reduce the job growth in order to get the wage growth to slow down. But that's only one part of inflation. Those higher wages give people more money to spend on goods that are still in short supply due to supply chain issues. So the price of goods increases, well, because it can.

On the other hand, both Target and Walmart have said that they warehouses full of goods that they need to move out before the holiday season inventory starts arriving. So that will cause some bargains to be available.

#6 | Posted by LampLighter at 2022-08-05 02:21 PM | Reply

"unemployment rate fell to pre-pandemic levels"

Ladies and Gentlemen the sun has risen on America once again.

www.youtube.com

#7 | Posted by Tor at 2022-08-05 02:25 PM | Reply

That would create some downward pressure on prices for those items. Gasoline/fuel continues to drop - which is a huge part of the price increase we've seen for goods. The hysteresis (lag) on that relationship between product cost and energy costs is a bit more than I thought it was going to be (last inflation report) so I'm really curious about the rate we'll see in the next report. If it drops, then I can see the next rate increase being only 50 basis points. I suspect, though, it's still going to be higher than expected.

#8 | Posted by YAV at 2022-08-05 02:26 PM | Reply

"Unemployment is low because everyone has two jobs. Unemployment is low because people are working 60, 70, 80 hours a week and can barely feed their family."

#9 | Posted by jamesgelliott at 2022-08-06 08:47 AM | Reply

When Trump first took office in 2017, employment was at 145.6 million. During the first three years of his term, the president repeatedly boasted of his success as the gross domestic product grew and unemployment rates headed down. But as he prepares to leave office, the report shows that only 142.6 million Americans were employed in December, marking a decline of 3 million jobs.

The last time employment fell during a presidential term was in 1933, when Herbert Hoover left office during the early period of the Great Depression.

^^^^^^^

Let's bring this bankruptcy-prone turd back.

#10 | Posted by Reinheitsgebot at 2022-08-06 09:08 AM | Reply

#9 Thanks capitalism

#11 | Posted by Nixon at 2022-08-06 09:13 AM | Reply

Most of the jobs are hospitality jobs, so I wouldn't get too crazy. They are not good jobs.

#12 | Posted by byrdman at 2022-08-06 09:26 AM | Reply

Most of the jobs are hospitality jobs, so I wouldn't get too crazy. They are not good jobs.

The gains were broad-based across all categories. "Every major sector increased employment."

#13 | Posted by YAV at 2022-08-06 09:49 AM | Reply

Overall job growth for the month was led by gains in leisure and hospitality, which added 96,000 jobs in total. (Food and beverage services dominated the sector, up 74,000 jobs.)

www.hotelmanagement.net

#14 | Posted by byrdman at 2022-08-06 11:04 AM | Reply

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 15 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $32.27 for the month. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 5.2 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $27.57.

Hourly earnings in the leisure and hospitality sector were $20.22 for the month, up from $18.60 the year before. Hourly wages also were up in June over May ($20.10 from $19.93).

#15 | Posted by byrdman at 2022-08-06 11:06 AM | Reply

I'd be happier if we could bring in more 30 dollar an hour manufacturing type jobs rather than 20 dollar an hour cashier type jobs.

#16 | Posted by byrdman at 2022-08-06 11:09 AM | Reply

Huh. Moments ago, Republicans were telling me "Nobody wants to work any more." I guess they were wrong.

#17 | Posted by snoofy at 2022-08-06 11:12 AM | Reply

What is the total employment in the US?
In 2019, around 157.53 million people were employed in the United States.

United States - Employment 2023 - Statista

As of June 2022, there were 133.63 million full-time employees in the United States.

Just think, we currently have fewer employed that we did prior to COVID, yet our population is now higher.

#18 | Posted by MSgt at 2022-08-07 04:40 PM | Reply

"Just think, we currently have fewer employed that we did prior to COVID, yet our population is now higher."

Just think, do you work, or are you retired?

#19 | Posted by snoofy at 2022-08-07 04:41 PM | Reply

But you do have a point, civilian labor force participation has only regained about 2/3 of what it lost thanks to COVID-19.
www.bls.gov

Or, if you look at the overall trend for the past 25 years, which is a gradual decline in labor force participation, we're about where we ought to be.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

#20 | Posted by snoofy at 2022-08-07 04:45 PM | Reply

#20 | POSTED BY SNOOFY

Ole TwoCasteSnoofy,

Actually we are down in absolute terms. While the percentage has dropped, the number of people with jobs continues to rise, because as MSGT states out population has increased.

Finally the "labor participation" rate is dropping the last 25yrs because we have immigrants that are working that aren't accounted for because they "legally" can't work, so not counted. So as that population grows, our participation rate drops.

But its how you want it, two tiered, so they can do your toilets for cheap, right?

#21 | Posted by oneironaut at 2022-08-07 05:00 PM | Reply

"Finally the "labor participation" rate is dropping the last 25yrs because we have immigrants that are working that aren't accounted for because they "legally" can't work, so not counted."*

*Citation needed.

#22 | Posted by snoofy at 2022-08-07 05:25 PM | Reply

Boomers dropping out of the work force, especially during the pandemic, certainly represent part of that downward trend.

"... wages are growing very quickly, indicating that companies are having difficulty filling all the open positions."

That's great for people who aren't working at or near minimum wage. I have a hard time celebrating something like that.

#23 | Posted by Hagbard_Celine at 2022-08-08 08:35 AM | Reply

#23

From what I see the fastest wage gains are actually in the lower ends of the workforce. In my market retail and warehouse jobs are up to 12-15 starting wages with quick raises that could see you at 15-20 in a year. 2-3 years ago 9 was a solid starting wage and 12 was epic after a year. So 33-66% wage growth in 3 years and probably more like 2 years. Granted it had been stagnant for the previous 3 years so when looked at as a 5 year average much less impressive.

Source: my wife hires in retail I am buddies with several warehouse workers and my son is a shift lead at Starbucks.

#24 | Posted by TaoWarrior at 2022-08-08 09:03 AM | Reply