Despite DeSantis' claim, Ian's cone forecast accurate, experts sayBut the fact that some in the media focused their coverage on the largest population center within the cone is somehow them
Published 4 hours ago
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Lee County Commission Chairman Cecil Pendergrass rebuffed the questions on Sunday, saying the data available before landfall did not warrant such a response. "Seventy-two hours before the storm, we still were not in the cone," Pendergrass said during a press conference. "We were working off of data and went off that data."
DeSantis also said Lee County based its decision on the National Hurricane Center's track forecast. "They were following the weather track and they had to make decisions based on that," he said in an interview with CNN. "But you know, 72 hours, they weren't even in the cone."
We reviewed eight advisories the National Hurricane Center issued Sept. 25 " three days before Ian made landfall. Most of Lee County was not within the forecasted path three days before landfall.
But one of the county's barrier islands, Cayo Costa - where the Category 4 hurricane made landfall - appeared inside the cone on each of eight advisories from Sept. 25. (No advisory was issued exactly 72 hours before Ian made landfall at 3:05 p.m.)
The cone graphic that DeSantis and Pendergrass referenced is often misunderstood, according to the National Hurricane Center. The visual is meant to show the probable track of the center of the storm - not the extent of a hurricane's reach. Focusing on the cone itself downplays the impacts of a storm as large as Ian. Still, in Ian's case, the cone was an accurate forecast of the storm's eventual trajectory, an expert said.
Matt Rogers, an atmospheric science researcher at Colorado State University, told PolitiFact that the cone graphic from Sept. 25 predicted that the center of Ian would cross the coastline anywhere between Cedar Key and Cayo Costa in Lee County. "The cone was therefore accurate," Rogers said. "The cone forecast from Sunday night predicted it was possible for the center of the hurricane to be as far south as Cayo Costa, and that's what happened."
What an egotistical, arrogant, projecting fool.