I think this is just a bargaining move on the part of the Insurrection Caucus and McCarthy will get the votes. If McCarthy doesn't then I don't think the GOP has a member who would and the GOP majority will on the whole fail their first test of leadership. I doubt the party would unite behind someone further right than McCarthy. The more vulnerable members are going to be looking at the failure of the MAGAT platform in the recent election and recognize that allowing the Insurrectionists to drag the House GOP further to the extremes is not a winning strategy.

I'm getting way ahead of myself here but let's say for a minute that the scenario above plays out and McCarthy fails to secure the Speaker position. That opens up an opportunity for Dems. A majority is required to win the Speakership role. Let's assume the Dems seat count remains at 213. IF (and that is a huge improbably IF) Dems could unanimously unite behind a Speaker candidate it would only take 5 GOP votes to secure victory. That dem backed candidate doesn't have to be a Dem or even a House member for that matter. Technically they wouldn't even need vote for the candidate. If they could get 10 GOP members to skip the vote/vote "present" it would lower the threshold to 213 and victory would come solely from Dem votes.