Inflation Is Falling for the First Time in a Year | Drudge Retort

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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Inflation Is Falling for the First Time in a Year

Long past its painful peak, inflation in the United States may be heading steadily back toward its pre-pandemic levels, without the need for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Posted by retort at 02:24 PM | 50 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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No credit goes to Biden. Because nothing what-so-ever in the entire nation that goes well since his election is due even in part to anything Biden has done. I learned that reading the Nooner.

#1 | Posted by moder8 at 2023-11-15 02:31 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

No credit goes to Biden. Because nothing what-so-ever in the entire nation that goes well since his election is due even in part to anything Biden has done. I learned that reading the Nooner.
#1 | POSTED BY MODER8 (not ROBSON)

Agreed. Lowest inflation of any G7 country. Can't be that inflation reduction act thingy. Trump probably did it somehow because he's magic.

#2 | Posted by Sycophant at 2023-11-15 02:38 PM | Reply

Fat Donnie Loser's minions will avoid this thread like the plague.

#3 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2023-11-15 02:57 PM | Reply

You think this is a good thing? Demand is what is cooling off, that brings prices down. People are out of money. Inflation isn't down, it just isn't growing. Wages remain flat and the real estate market is about to tank.

No serious voter is ok with the present situation. But that would be people with a career and a retirement to care for.

#4 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2023-11-15 03:14 PM | Reply

Inflation falling is not the same as prices getting cheaper, which requires disinflation. What they are really saying is prices are still going up, just not quite as fast. The article states that prices haven't risen but I can't tell that when I go to buy groceries. Short of hyperinflation, prices are still in nose bleed heights. What the media puts out is often from government estimates and figures, often corrected the next month, when no one is still looking at the figures.

When the last time inflation was bad, the media and the government were all hollering it was getting better. Maybe for the rich it was. For the average citizen, it was another 2 years before it filtered down.

At this point, I put little faith in the current estimates and articles written about how much better it is. Maybe in a couple of years we'll actually see that. One has to remember there is an election year coming. Both political parties want you to know how lucky you are they are working on your behalf and how that has helped you but lies and half truths are cheap.

#5 | Posted by BBQ at 2023-11-15 03:35 PM | Reply

Inflation falling is not the same as prices getting cheaper, which requires disinflation.

deflation.

Inflation isn't falling the rate of change is lower, .

After a weak bond display, the concern is if the US Gov can keep its interest rates low in future sales.

Lowest inflation of any G7 country.

This is somewhat false (Japan) and who cares about UK, Italy, France and Germany, THEY ARE ALL on the Euro!

But its hard to tell, they all use different metrics. For instance using 1990 methodology the US is currently at 8%, its falling as reported.

When the last time inflation was bad, the media and the government were all hollering it was getting better.

Called it "transitory." But then again what isn't transitory?

Can't be that inflation reduction act thingy.

Which as Biden admitted wasn't much about "inflation reduction".

President Joe Biden said he regretted the name of one of his signature legislative achievements " the Inflation Reduction Act " saying the title didn't draw enough attention to its impact on the overall economy.
"I wish I hadn't called it that, because it has less to do with reducing inflation than providing alternatives where we generate economic growth," Biden said Thursday at a fundraiser in Park City, Utah.

www.bloomberg.com

Its all hand waving as BBQ implies.

#6 | Posted by oneironaut at 2023-11-15 03:55 PM | Reply

Don't fret, IAMRUNT. Your child-raping hero's 15% unemployment rate isn't in danger of being replicated.

#7 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2023-11-15 04:06 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 2

"No serious voter is ok with the present situation. "

Like you are a "serious voter".

You support twice impeached criminally negligent criminally indicted Trumpy. A rapist, an insurrectionist and a fraud. You would actually vote for him again after all we know about him to be our frikin President!

Therefore.

You can't possibly be serious!

#8 | Posted by donnerboy at 2023-11-15 04:08 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

No serious voter is ok with the present situation.
#4 | POSTED BY LFTHNDTHRDS

You're right. No serious voter is okay with the GOP games and tantrums in the House instead of actually governing the country.

How's that blockade of military appointments going?

#9 | Posted by Sycophant at 2023-11-15 04:40 PM | Reply

I knew as soon as I had heard that the pandemic Russia war inflation rate was now pretty much under control and the stocks were picking up in this and started booming that this would somehow be very bad news to republicans and that of course Biden's economic policies had nothing to do with it.

#10 | Posted by donnerboy at 2023-11-15 05:31 PM | Reply

And Biden was responsible for gas prices. All Uncle Joe's fault.

Where I live they've come down 50 cents in the last couple of weeks, and I don't hear people saying, "That's a lot better. Thanks, Joe."

Seems intellectually inconsistent. I know that's asking a lot.

#11 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2023-11-15 07:05 PM | Reply

No serious voter is ok with the present situation. But that would be people with a career and a retirement to care for.
#4 | POSTED BY LFTHNDTHRDS

The second sentence is nonsense. All the Democrats I know are pretty gainfully employed or comfortably retired. I'm a full-time freelancer who's built a nice client list over 30 years. And I don't plan on stopping working.

The first sentence is absolutely correct, and for a lot of reasons you'd seem not to consider relevant.

#12 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2023-11-15 07:13 PM | Reply

. . .

This is somewhat false (Japan) and who cares about UK, Italy, France and Germany, THEY ARE ALL on the Euro!

. . .

#6 | Posted by oneironaut at 2023-11-15 03:55 PM | Reply

When exaclty is it that the UK started using the Euro? I mean, it was kind of thing that even when they were in the EU, they stuck with the Pound, and you think they're on the Euro now they've left the EU. I'm not sure you have the level of undertanding you think you do.

#13 | Posted by StatsPlease at 2023-11-15 09:21 PM | Reply

Anyone look at the DOW lately? Bueller? Anyone?

#14 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2023-11-15 11:08 PM | Reply

Inflation isn't down, it just isn't growing.

LOL this idiot demands to be taken seriously.

Do you just read absolute crap sources or do you just not understand math?

#15 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-15 11:35 PM | Reply

Inflation isn't falling the rate of change is lower, .

You never took calc, I see...

#16 | Posted by horstngraben at 2023-11-15 11:55 PM | Reply

Inflation isn't falling the rate of change is lower, .

#6 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

"Inflation isn't falling the rate of change is lower"
That's literally the same thing. It's literally what that means.

#17 | Posted by Sycophant at 2023-11-16 10:44 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Anyone look at the DOW lately?

Lewzer loved crowing about the DJIA as if that meant anything to the 40% of Americans who have saved nothing for retirement. The GQP is now pushing a plan to fast track a commission to cut social security benefits that would operate in secret with no public oversight. The goal is to never have to pay back the $2.5TRILLION stolen (or STOLLEN in Lewzer speack) for tax cuts for billionaires.

#18 | Posted by Nixon at 2023-11-16 10:52 AM | Reply

The article effectively explains why Biden is going to lose:

"But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn't mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels. The consumer price index, the most widely followed measure of inflation, remains about 20% higher than it was before the pandemic.

Milk prices, which have ticked down compared with the past year, are still 23% higher than they were pre-pandemic. Ground beef prices are 31% higher. Gas prices, despite a steep decline from a year ago, are still 46% higher than before the pandemic.

Many economists say a key reason why so many Americans hold a gloomy view of the economy despite very low unemployment and steady hiring is that these prices " on items that they buy regularly " remain much higher than they were three years ago."

#19 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2023-11-16 11:50 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#19 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG AT 2023-11-16 11:50 AM | REPLY

Try and get that through fake doctor's head.

#20 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2023-11-16 11:59 AM | Reply

@#19 ... But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn't mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels. ...

Exactly.

What we have now is disinflation, not deflation.

Disinflation - the slowing of the rate of price increases during an inflation cycle.

Deflation - the dropping of prices.

Unfortunately, to obtain widespread deflation (price decreases) there usually needs to be some manner of recession with higher unemployment.

#21 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-16 12:53 PM | Reply

The article effectively explains why Biden is going to lose:
"But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn't mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels. The consumer price index, the most widely followed measure of inflation, remains about 20% higher than it was before the pandemic.
Milk prices, which have ticked down compared with the past year, are still 23% higher than they were pre-pandemic. Ground beef prices are 31% higher. Gas prices, despite a steep decline from a year ago, are still 46% higher than before the pandemic.
Many economists say a key reason why so many Americans hold a gloomy view of the economy despite very low unemployment and steady hiring is that these prices " on items that they buy regularly " remain much higher than they were three years ago."

#19 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

Why would corporations lower prices if people are still buying and there is insufficient competition to worry about? They may as well just enjoy those record profits.

Welcome to Capitalism. Isn't it grand?

#22 | Posted by Sycophant at 2023-11-16 01:20 PM | Reply

"But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn't mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels."

It's rare for prices to ever go down. Who will give up their profits first? Unless we go into a depression or energy prices prices suddenly take a tumble it's inward and upwards forever.

How are those corporate profits doing this year? Still at an all time high? Or maybe they are down a little. Just like inflation. It's almost like the two are connected. Nahhh.

#23 | Posted by donnerboy at 2023-11-16 01:33 PM | Reply

Another aspect, and maybe an explanation why consumer spending is remaining high...

Credit card balances spiked in the third quarter to a $1.08 trillion record. Here's how we got here
www.cnbc.com

... Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found.

"Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth," said Donghoon Lee, the New York Fed's economic research advisor.

Credit card delinquency rates also rose across the board, according to the New York Fed, but especially among millennials, or borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39, who are burdened by high levels of student loan debt.

With most people feeling strained by higher prices " particularly for food, gas and housing " more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month or falling behind on payments, and a greater percentage of balances are going more than 180 days delinquent, according to a separate report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Nearly one-tenth of credit card users find themselves in "persistent debt" where they are charged more in interest and fees each year than they pay toward the principal " a pattern that is increasingly difficult to break, the consumer watchdog said.

"It's a big deal," said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. "Your credit card is probably your highest cost debt by a wide margin." ...

#24 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-16 02:10 PM | Reply

from above and Nixon.

"...Lewzer loved crowing about the DJIA as if that meant anything to the 40% of Americans who have saved nothing for retirement."

Nothing but revenge means anything to those who failed to save. I know, I am surrounded by them nightly in the bars of WV. All loyal Trumpists to a man, perhaps they should have paid attention in school instead of laughing, sleeping, or sniffing glue at the back of the class.

Now, nothing short of a winning lottery ticket or the next drunken stupor will momentarily bring them bliss.

#25 | Posted by earthmuse at 2023-11-16 04:26 PM | Reply

#22 | POSTED BY SYCOPHANT AT 2023-11-16 01:20 PM | FLAG:

Why didn't they just raise prices before Covid? Same market, same players. Regardless of that, the Biden, which has in no way accepted any responsibility for inflation, flooded the ag sector with billions in subsidies, another billion in 2022-2023, causing more inflation that the admin spent it's early months claiming didn't even exist.

It's not going to end well in the election.

#26 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2023-11-16 04:58 PM | Reply

@#26 ... Why didn't they just raise prices before Covid? ...

I have suggested in the past that Big Oil was raising prices and obtaining record profits in order to make Pres Biden look bad and to get a Republican back in the White House, a Republican that is sympathetic towards Big Oil.

#27 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-16 05:59 PM | Reply

__________
#27 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-16 05:59 PM |
@#26 ... Why didn't they just raise prices before Covid? ...

----- I have suggested in the past that Big Oil was raising prices and obtaining record profits in order to make Pres Biden look bad and to get a Republican back in the White House, a Republican that is sympathetic towards Big Oil.

Oh no, not the Big Oil conspiracy again!

First of all, there is no such thing. Outside of maybe OPEC+ (which has not been doing great lately), oil and gas are global commodities which are responsible for less than 5% of global GDP and about 8% of total composite (direct and indirect US GDP) - out of 12 major Integrated Oil and Gas companies on US stock exchanges (and not counting Saudi Aramco, Russian Gazprom and Lukoil, several giant Chinese oil companies like CNOOC and CNP etc.) only two, Exxon and Chevron are US-registered, the rest are 3 Canadian, 2 British, 1 each from France, Norway, Brazil, Italy and Colombia.

All of them conspired against Biden?

Like most essential global commodities, the prices of oil and gas are driven by supply and demand and therefore fluctuate widely.

If "Big Oil" had such a (political) control over prices of oil and gas then why in the last two months alone the price of Brent and TWI crude fell from USD$98 / $93 to USD$77 / $73 respectively?

Natgas prices, which crashed in 2019 from USD$4 to USD$2 went up in 2022 to USD$10 after Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened Europe with supply disruption, but dropped almost 80% in early 2023 back to $2 level and is now up almost 50% at about $3.

Why, when 3 times in the last year Saudis announced (and Russia echoed) that they will reduce supply of oil, the markets jumped initially and then almost immediately, within weeks slumped to previous, or even lower levels? Why are they at the price level of 2018 - Trump administration?

If "Big Oil" companies really have "record profits" their stocks wouldn't be at the level of 2013-2014 (Obama administration) and were flat to 25% down during 2017-2020 period? Refineries like Valero or Marathon did even worse during Trump administration, with stocks down 60%-80% over 3-4 years. Why didn't any of them just raise prices to get magical mythical "record profits" if they could do so at will?

Increased supply (as Republicans want) leads to lower prices, restricted supply (as Democrats supposedly want, to promote "clean" / "renewable" energy) lead to higher prices - it's basic market economics. Which ones would lead to "record profits"?

Very few companies now, outside of "Magnificent Seven" have annual "record profits," especially if they're adjusted for inflation.

The weakness in energy prices (and in recent CPI/PCE "headline inflation" baskets) is much more likely due to overall, possibly recessionary, weakness in economy - consumers are tapped out and are using more of BNPL, credit cards and other forms of debt, as well as dipping into their 401(k) accounts for "hardship" withdrawals.
www.marketwatch.com - 401(k) hardship withdrawals jumped 36% in the second quarter - Aug. 12, 2023
www.marketwatch.com - Hardship distributions are on the rise. The economy may be to blame - Nov. 7, 2023

|-------
"If this is happening during a boom, what will the picture look like when the U.S. next enters a recession?"
-------|
__________

#28 | Posted by CutiePie at 2023-11-17 04:51 AM | Reply

So the prices of things are going up slightly less than the record amount they were before? What a win! Nevermind that families are still getting crushed based on existing prices. They're not increasing as much as they were a year ago when 40 year records were getting smashed.

#29 | Posted by THEBULL at 2023-11-17 07:43 AM | Reply

"Nevermind that families are still getting crushed based on existing prices."

Republicans offer no solution.

Just whining.

And blaming everyone else for their problems.

#30 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 07:55 AM | Reply

Oh no, not the Big Oil conspiracy again!

Conspiracy?

The word is Cartel.

#31 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 08:20 AM | Reply

"Refineries like Valero or Marathon did even worse during Trump administration"

COVID did that. Not Trump.

Why have they doubled since Biden, and when are you going to sing Biden's praises and/or name him as a Big Oil Conspirator?

#32 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 08:26 AM | Reply

-All of them conspired against Biden?

Partisanship trumps everything else. All logic goes out the window when people shackle themselves to partisanship. They choose to believe the most absurd notions that you addressed well in 28.

Even folks like Lamplighter who appear to possess a high level of intelligence can buy into such absurdity.

#33 | Posted by eberly at 2023-11-17 09:17 AM | Reply

"All of them conspired against Biden?"

They sued Biden in court.

It's not a conspiracy, it is taking place openly right before your eyes.

And it was CutiePie, not LampLighter who labelled it a conspiracy, so he could burn down his own straw man.

And Eberly cum-guzzles it up.

Eberly is the real audience for #28.

#34 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 10:07 AM | Reply

-All of them conspired against Biden?

they conspired against Jimmy Carter as well.

#35 | Posted by eberly at 2023-11-17 10:08 AM | Reply

And Snoofy is the real ----------.......everyday.

#36 | Posted by eberly at 2023-11-17 10:09 AM | Reply

There's no conspiracy Eberly.

Remember when you used to be able to have a discussion?

Yeah me neither.

#37 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 10:35 AM | Reply

Even Homer Simpson can see through this shell game.
Pick a hand! ANY hand..
hoo hoo easy money.

#38 | Posted by phesterOBoyle at 2023-11-17 10:49 AM | Reply

Try and get that through fake doctor's head.

#20 | POSTED BY LFTHNDTHRDS

LOL says the idiot who has shown they don't understand what inflation means.

Guess what, idiot, inflation happens every year. Usually, it's at a controlled ~2-3% rate. Nobody demands, under normal conditions, that prices be what they were 4 years ago or else I won't vote for a candidate because it's somehow their fault.

All this shows is the abject stupidity and selfishness of your average American voter, just as it does for you.

#39 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-17 11:43 AM | Reply

#29 | POSTED BY THEBULL

There are two ways prices drop-increased supply or decreased demand.

Increased supply isn't going to happen meaningfully because producers aren't going to lower profits willingly.

That leaves decreasing demand. And that's something we consumers can exercise some power over.

Save more. Consume less. It would be win win.

But asking Americans to consume less is like asking a fish to live outside of water sooooo...

#40 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-17 11:47 AM | Reply

I have suggested in the past that Big Oil was raising prices and obtaining record profits in order to make Pres Biden look bad and to get a Republican back in the White House, a Republican that is sympathetic towards Big Oil.

#27 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER AT 2023-11-16 05:59 PM | FLAG: A little education for you...

Petroleum prices are determined by market forces of supply and demand, not individual companies, and the price of crude oil is the primary determinant of the price we pay at the pump.

API | Gas Prices Explained - American Petroleum Institute

#41 | Posted by MSgt at 2023-11-17 01:36 PM | Reply

"Petroleum prices are determined by market forces of supply and demand"

Supply isn't determined by the market.

Supply is determined by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Cartel, commonly known as OPEC.

"The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, /opk/ OH-pek) is an organization enabling the co-operation of leading oil-producing countries in order to collectively influence the global oil market and maximize profit."

How are you so ------- stupid that you don't know what OPEC is?

You Deplorables can't die off soon enough.

---- you.

#42 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 01:41 PM | Reply

#41 | POSTED BY MSGT

They do have some level of control over supply at multiple points of the supply chain.

So it's not entirely accurate to act as if they can't put a thumb on the scale at least a little bit.

BTW your post is also why the "energy independence" nonsense is hilariously obvious political BS. You guys just refuse to see it or acknowledge it.

#43 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-17 01:47 PM | Reply

"Petroleum prices are determined by market forces of supply and demand"

Wait. Do you actually believe oil companies can't affect supply?

If you do...I have an out-of-service refinery to sell you.

#44 | Posted by Danforth at 2023-11-17 01:55 PM | Reply

__________
#32 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 08:26 AM |
COVID did that.

COVID was in 2020. The decline in stock prices was from 2018 through 2019.

Not Trump.

You are right about that.

Why have they doubled since Biden, and when are you going to sing Biden's praises and/or name him as a Big Oil Conspirator?

That makes no sense.
__________

#45 | Posted by CutiePie at 2023-11-17 02:07 PM | Reply

"All this shows is the abject stupidity and selfishness of your average American voter,"

The source of many arguments here is over the fact that the average American voter is ALWAYS stupid and selfish.

Not just when Trump is president nor because he is president
Not just when Biden is president nor because he is president

Not just during COVID
etc.

I think a lot of folks here think Biden and Trump have the power to steer this or control it or regulate it.

They rely on it, to be sure....but that's about it.

#46 | Posted by eberly at 2023-11-17 02:24 PM | Reply

"COVID was in 2020. The decline in stock prices was from 2018 through 2019."

Okay.
Why would Trump do that to our refineries?

#47 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 02:35 PM | Reply

They rely on it, to be sure....but that's about it.
#46 | POSTED BY EBERLY

For sure.

My rationale for saying it (almost always) is that the consequences of it are neither a positive nor negative indicator of a politician's performance.

In the end you can only shovel so much sand against a tide.

#48 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-17 03:21 PM | Reply

I read an interesting editorial on Marketwatch on this subject about a week ago. Basically saying the inflation was transitory and a correction was going to come regardless. It also lambasted the Fed, saying they did nothing to help the situation and will likely only cause a recession. Which I agree with. COVID supply chain issues were still most of the cause of the inflation. They were SLOWLY clearing and still not totally back where they were. It also talked about how the Russian attack on Ukraine jacked up the energy sector which kept up the inflation pressure - I have been saying that too. Simple supply and demand economics. Fed bumping rates did nothing other than put money in bankers pockets and push us toward a recession which I believe is now around the corner. Housing is not falling because rates are so high - nobody is willing to let go of their low interest rates on homes to buy a new one. New homes are moving but there is little movement in existing homes currently. I know I am not looking to pay 2.5-3 times the interest to move right now. Unless I am seeing a significant raise...

#49 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2023-11-17 04:09 PM | Reply

New homes are moving but there is little movement in existing homes currently.

From what I've read, a lot of this is driven by developers offering finance at interest rates below going mortgage rates to ensure the houses actually sell.

#50 | Posted by jpw at 2023-11-17 04:16 PM | Reply

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