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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Friday, December 01, 2023

Shrugging off higher interest rates, America's consumers spent enough to help drive the economy to a brisk 5.2 per cent annual pace from July through September, the government reported Wednesday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.

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... The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 4.9 per cent annual rate last quarter.

In the current fourth quarter, though, economists say growth is likely slowing sharply from the cumulative effects of higher borrowing rates on consumer and business spending. TD Economics, for example, expects growth in the October-December period to come in at a 1.8 per cent annual rate.

Wednesday's second estimate of growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1 per cent rate from April through June. It showed that the U.S. gross domestic product -- the total output of goods and services -- grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.

Consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy, rose at a 3.6 per cent annual rate from July through September -- still healthy but a downgrade from the previous estimate of 4 per cent. Private investment surged at a 10.5 per cent annual pace, including a 6.2 per cent increase in housing investment, which defied higher mortgage rates.

The economy also received a lift from companies building inventories in anticipation of future sales, which added 1.4 percentage points to quarterly growth. Also driving the third quarter growth was an uptick in spending and investment by governments at all levels -- federal, state and local. ...


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-30 02:10 AM | Reply

I can't wait for the MSM and Republicans to both tell me why this news is bad for America and the Biden Administration.

#2 | Posted by bartimus at 2023-12-01 03:15 PM | Reply

Bert and Ernie, er. I mean Bev and Bell, will be along shortly to tell us just that.

Their problem is that this economy is only going to improve by November.

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2023-12-01 03:37 PM | Reply

Fat Donnie Loser never had those numbers. Because he sucks.

#4 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2023-12-01 10:40 PM | Reply

Remember when Biden came into office and republicans were saying we were headed for a recession. Then after he was in office for a year they were telling us a recession was right around the corner. And then another year went by and they were singing the same tune. Even six months they were certain we'd be in recession by the end of the 2023. The US economy keeps proving them wrong at every turn.

#5 | Posted by johnny_hotsauce at 2023-12-01 11:54 PM | Reply

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#2 | Posted by bartimus at 2023-12-01 03:15 PM
I can't wait for the MSM and Republicans to both tell me why this news is bad for America and the Biden Administration.

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2023-12-01 03:37 PM
Their problem is that this economy is only going to improve by November.

I don't speak for "MSM and Republicans" but you are looking far back in a rear-view mirror. Everyone knew Q3 was going to be OK (inflation-adjusted and over weak '22Q3) but slowing down substantially in Q4. No one expects an official recession, but consumers still feel the inflation effects, as in late 1970s - early 1980s "stagflation" or "growflation" period.

|------
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter as businesses built more warehouses and accumulated machinery equipment, but momentum appears to have since waned as higher borrowing costs curb hiring and spending.

Upward revision came from increases in nonresidential fixed investment, which includes structures and equipment. The category showed a rise of 1.3%, which was still sharply lower than in previous quarters.

U.S. manufacturing remained subdued in November, with factory employment declining further as hiring slowed and layoffs increased, more evidence that the economy was losing momentum after robust growth last quarter.

Spending by state and local governments was also revised higher. But growth in consumer spending was lowered to 3.6% rate.
------|

IOW, it's still a government (IRA / "Inflation Reduction Act") spending effect - building empty factories and plants we don't need with the money we don't have, i.e., have to borrow at very high rates. Kind of like China in last decade "investing" in building ghost cities well beyond actual demand, only here it's called "investing" in industrial infrastructure in building "green economy" well beyond actual demand.

coachingforleaders.com - "If you build it, they will come" is a lie.

Eventually, some rich corporations or PE companies will buy these structures at a fraction of what it cost the government to build, and will try to use them to make money based on "local" demand.

Meanwhile what's going on in the economy:

New orders continue to decline, at moderate pace
Factory employment decreases as hiring slows down
Manufacturing prices paid went up, while employment went down
Fed's report shows economic activity cooling significantly at the start of the Q4

Manufacturing PMI unchanged at 46.7 in November - 13th consecutive month that the PMI stayed below 50 (which indicates contraction in manufacturing) - the longest stretch since from August 2000 to January 2002.

3 industries - food, beverage and tobacco, transportation equipment and nonmetallic mineral products - reported nominal growth in November. 14 industries reported contraction.

Manufacturers in the ISM survey described inventories as "bloated." Manufacturers of computer and electronic products said the "economy appears to be slowing dramatically." Layoffs in technology sector have accelerated.

Gross domestic income (GDI) contracted at a 0.2% pace on a year-on-year basis - first decline in three years - even after revisions by BEA in September - confirms that average consumer is tapped out, while accumulating above-average credit debt.

So, a nice Q3, and politicians will take credit for it, but the problems with the consumer economy seem to be getting worse, or at best, are not improving.
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#6 | Posted by CutiePie at 2023-12-02 02:29 AM | Reply


@#6 ... Everyone knew Q3 was going to be OK (inflation-adjusted and over weak '22Q3) but slowing down substantially in Q4. No one expects an official recession, but consumers still feel the inflation effects, as in late 1970s - early 1980s "stagflation" or "growflation" period. ...

For starters, the "everyone" and "no one" assertions have to go. Economic forward views are not an "everyone" thing, nor is it a "no one" thing.

There are differing views. I see them daily.

From what I've seen of your alias' posts, it should know better than that. Maybe I need to lower my opinion of your alias....

That aside...

... IOW, it's still a government (IRA / "Inflation Reduction Act") spending effect - building empty factories and plants we don't need with the money we don't have, i.e., have to borrow at very high rates. ...

Yeah, you're gonna need to provide a whole lot more facts to substantiate that.

... Meanwhile what's going on in the economy: ...

So... the Fed's goal of reducing inflation down to 2% looks to be working, according to your comment. Bringing an over-heated economy back down to 2% inflation is not without consequences.

Of course, that begs the question, your comment seems to criticize, but what solution does it offer to reduce inflation back to the 2% target level?

Criticism is easy. Solutions are more difficult.

That prompt's me to ask, what's yer point?

Or more specifically, what have ye?



#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-12-02 03:07 AM | Reply

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#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-12-02 03:07 AM
For starters, the "everyone" and "no one" assertions have to go. Economic forward views are not an "everyone" thing, nor is it a "no one" thing. There are differing views. I see them daily.

Your alias is in your "fifth grade grammar teacher" mode again? I thought we were done with that already last couple of times!

Unless your alias wants to post "everyone who pays attention and is supposed to or knows and understands anything about economy or [insert subject here...]" then, if your alias still doesn't understand non-literal shorthand of "everyone" and/or "no one," that's your alias' comprehension problem, which I and your alias have already discussed a couple of times.

Your alias seems to keep trying to pick a fight, especially at 3 in the morning, for some reason. I would appreciate your alias stop being annoying and not wasting my time with that nonsense again.

From what I've seen of your alias' posts, it should know better than that. Maybe I need to lower my opinion of your alias....

From what I keep seeing lately of your alias, I've been lowering my opinion daily... and I don't really care what your alias thinks about me. As I've already suggested to your alias last couple of times, if your alias has difficulties understanding my posts, which most normal people have no trouble understanding, maybe, just maybe, it would be better for your alias to dial up levels of attention and comprehension and dial down highly unwarranted and unattractive condescension and contentiousness.

Your alias may have been BMOC at one time, but it's not all that...

Yeah, you're gonna need to provide a whole lot more facts to substantiate that.

Actually, I don't - I am not posting here just for your current alias' level of comprehension. I suggest your alias try reading my post again, then your own excerpt at post #1 - particularly where it talks about government spending - and if you still don't understand, do some search in financial/economic resources, not the political which write "differing views that you see daily."

So... the Fed's goal of reducing inflation down to 2% looks to be working, according to your comment. Bringing an over-heated economy back down to 2% inflation is not without consequences.

Outside of being a non-sequitur - I didn't even mention inflation or Fed (except its economic report) - I didn't say anything different in my post, not in the facts nor in opinions I provided.

... your comment seems to criticize, but what solution does it offer ...? Criticism is easy. Solutions are more difficult.

Yet another non-sequitur. Must be your comprehension again or seeing things not in evidence.

Criticism of what? Solutions to what?

Your alias keeps looking for politics. My post doesn't nor does it provide some magical "solutions" to undefined problems. I was providing published and well known facts (apparently not well known to "everybody" and certainly not to people or aliases who are just playing "economist" and looking only for favorable political explanations, ignoring "anything / everything" else that doesn't fit that criteria) about economic numbers for past quarter and more current numbers and projections of industry as well as what they may mean for the current quarter and the year overall.

Your alias has a problem with that... why? If your alias doesn't care about these facts, it missed a great chance to stay quiet.

That prompt's me to ask, what's yer point? Or more specifically, what have ye?

Actually, that would be my question - what was your alias' point? Or more specifically, what possessed your alias to make it?
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#8 | Posted by CutiePie at 2023-12-02 06:33 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

I can't wait for the MSM and Republicans to both tell me why this news is bad for America and the Biden Administration.

#2 | POSTED BY BARTIMUS

You don't have to wait. Get over on FoxNews and in five minutes you will think we are deep in an apocalypse purposely created by Joe Biden just to make Americans miserable. And also we are stealing Christmas again.

#9 | Posted by donnerboy at 2023-12-03 12:55 PM | Reply

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