Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Monday, July 08, 2024

The presidential race has remained tight in the run-up to November's election, and with four months to go, Donald Trump appears to have lost a slight edge, the most recent polling analysis shows.


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Though the former president is still narrowly beating his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, previous simulations showed him performing slightly better. When the same method was applied on July 3, Trump won 53 times out of 100 simulated elections.


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"The election analysis technique used by FiveThirtyEight involves 1,000 simulations of elections"using polling, economic and demographic data"to see who wins.

The discrepancy between the two sets of simulations may indicate that Trump's popularity is waning. However, Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight's senior election analyst, said the election is "a pure toss-up" this far from November 5.

"Four months out from Election Day, the 2024 presidential election is a pure toss-up," he said in the polling analysis."

The Bump is gone, baby, the bump is gone for good.

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-08 06:00 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"It's over, insurgent Democrats. Biden's not going anywhere.

The president's doubters just gave him a new strategy to beat Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden's interview on "Morning Joe" today is exactly what everyone has been waiting and wanting to see from the president. What we saw this morning was quintessential Joe Biden; it was also just great politics. And his campaign should be doing more of it.

Democrats who want Biden to step aside have had over a week to get their act together and mount their insurgency. But now, that's done. It's over.

I think the president ended it with that interview. I believe we're going to look back at the debate, and all the chaos that followed, and see this interview as a market shift, the catalyst that the president's campaign needed."

#2 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-08 09:41 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 2

I think there were unrealistic expectations about how it was going to look. The optics were bad... sort of. Two old men... in a world of denial about age. Actually, Biden looks his age... and Trumpanzee looks like a man running from his which is creepy. It was a stunner on both sides... but I think the cl0wns were relieved because they are so enamored with Trumpanzee's bluster they don't give a $#!t about his policy and they thought he won... delusional twits that they are. The Trumpanzees wish they could throw hissy fits and command the same kind of respect that Trumpanzee gets from his tantrums. They just don't have the chops. Maybe they think Trumpanzee will give them some chops... I dunno...

Biden answered questions... you could tell he wanted to show off his brilliance... but he got baffled by Trumpanzee's -------. If Biden made a mistake it was thinking Trumpanzee showed up to debate.

A musician friend of mine who earns her keep as a performer told me. A debate is a performance and some nights you just bomb... it happens. You hope it doesn't happen on a big night. Bidens performance is one bomb out of thousands of performances.

Trumpanzee on the other his professed domain of expertise money... lost money... millions several times over... and trashes everything he touches... and he came out of retirement to eff this up too.

#3 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2024-07-08 11:44 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Biden has climbed from an abysmal 18% chance of winning to a mighty 20% chance.

Trumps chances... went up, because the odds of Harris or Obama being nominated went down.

#4 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-07-09 09:16 AM | Reply

Can we all stop breathlessly reporting the latest poll that is nothing more than horse race bulls*&^? It's July. Both candidates have their diehard camps that won't change and the sliver of folks that determine these elections in three or four states won't decide until close to the election.

Stop giving the garbage media their clicks as a reward for being idiots.

#5 | Posted by jpw at 2024-07-09 09:22 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 6

-Stop giving the garbage media their clicks as a reward for being idiots.

Very true...but that flies way over the head of many here, especially corky.

#6 | Posted by eberly at 2024-07-09 09:35 AM | Reply

There is no way in hell Trump loses an election where he wins the national popular vote (as is indicated in the national polls now). In fact, Trump losing the national vote by 1 or 2% probably still gives him an EC landslide.

No clue what the media is trying to pull with these kinds of articles that are utterly devoid from current reality. Yes, a lot can happen from now until the election - but if the election were held today, it is Trump in a Reagan-like blow out.

#7 | Posted by Claudio at 2024-07-09 09:55 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

" but if the election were held today, it is Trump in a Reagan-like blow out."

lol what? most of the polls are within the margin of error. you just make crap up.

#8 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-07-09 10:20 AM | Reply

They were more favorable to Hillary and she still lost. Biden is the best candidate for 2020, not 2024.

#9 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-07-09 11:07 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Somehow Biden is starting to do better in swing states.

#10 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-07-09 11:15 AM | Reply

Wow... that known genius Beverly hath spoken!

Let's all go home, eh?

And Fraudio giving Trump a blowout job?

Happens every day.

#11 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-09 11:19 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Did you succeed in convincing ... yourself?

#12 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2024-07-09 11:22 AM | Reply

Most polls in the swing states are still wallowing in the margin of error.

That said...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden

The graph in the above shows fmr Pres trump's lead leveling off around 3.3%, the highest it has been since January 2024.

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-09 12:54 PM | Reply

she still lost. Biden is the best candidate for 2020, not 2024

With four months until election, Biden is the only candidate.

He shouldn't have been nominated in 2020.

He should have stuck to his statement about only presiding for 1 term.

#14 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-07-09 03:03 PM | Reply

Corky. quick, send this to the majority of the Democratic party who are want Biden out because they say he is losing.

#15 | Posted by fishpaw at 2024-07-10 10:56 AM | Reply

"With four months until election, Biden is the only candidate."

France had 2 elections in one month.

Are you saying we can't do elections better than France?

That's it. I am taking back your freedom fries.

You don't deserve them.

#16 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-07-10 11:34 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

It's funny how Reps are in a situation that campaigns salivate over and they STILL can't have a candidate that can beat Biden easily.

#17 | Posted by humtake at 2024-07-10 12:34 PM | Reply

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