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Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Since 2022, when he began preparing for the presidential campaign, Trump has issued more than 100 threats to investigate, prosecute, imprison or otherwise punish his perceived opponents, NPR has found. read more


Monday, October 21, 2024

Will Bunch: What a genitalia joke and a four-letter word about Kamala Harris is telling us about the American fascism threat under Trump. read more


Sunday, October 20, 2024

This comprehensive list was compiled by Mark Jacob, former editor at the Chicago Tribune, author, and writer of the newsletter Stop The Presses. It highlights 200 reasons to vote against Donald Trump, addressing his actions, statements, and policies that have undermined democracy, harmed the country, and divided Americans. read more


Saturday, October 19, 2024

Offshore betting markets like Polymarket mislead voters by substituting right-wing "vibes" for data. read more


An initiative called Progress 2028 that purports to be Kamala Harris' liberal counter to the conservative Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 is actually run by a dark money network supporting former President Donald Trump. read more


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Combining the 2 segments, with the Face the Nation excerpt not included in the 60 Minutes clip in bold:

Bill Whitaker: The events of the past few weeks have pushed us to the brink, if--if not into an all--out regional war in the Middle East. What can the U.S. do at this point to stop this from spinning out of control?

Vice President Kamala Harris: Well, let's start with October 7. 1,200 people were massacred, 250 hostages were taken, including Americans, women were brutally raped, and as I said then, I maintain Israel has a right to defend itself. We would. And how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. This war has to end.

Bill Whitaker: We supply Israel with billions of dollars in military aid, and yet Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be charting his own course. The Biden-Harris administration has pressed him to agree to a ceasefire. He's resisted. You urged him not to go into Lebanon. He went in anyway. Does the U.S. have no sway over Prime Minister Netanyahu?

KAMALA HARRIS (Vice President of the United States (D) and U.S. Presidential Candidate): The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the Israelis and the people of Israel.

And when we think about the threat that Hamas, Hezbollah presents, Iran, I think that it is without any question our imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those kinds of attacks.

Vice President Kamala Harris: [Now]The work that we do diplomatically with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles.

Bill Whitaker: But it seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not listening.

Vice President Kamala Harris: We are not gonna stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.

Bill Whitaker: Do we have a--a real close ally in Prime Minister Netanyahu?

Vice President Kamala Harris: I think, with all due respect, the better question is do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people. And the answer to that question is yes.

Face the Nation:

Good morning, and welcome to Face the Nation.

As we begin this broadcast, the airstrikes from Israel into Gaza and Southern Beirut are ongoing, and there is no end in sight to the war that is about to enter its second year.

The question of just how effective U.S. leadership has been and potentially would be in a new administration when it comes to Israel is one raised frequently on the campaign trail.

For a special election edition of 60 Minutes that will air Monday, our Bill Whitaker sat down with Vice President Harris and asked her about U.S. influence with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

(Begin VT)

BILL WHITAKER: We supply Israel with billions of dollars in military aid, and yet Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be charting his own course. The Biden/Harris administration has pressed him to agree to a cease-fire. He's resisted.

You urged him not to go into Lebanon. He went in anyway. He has promised to make Iran pay for the missile attack, and that has the potential of expanding the war. Does the U.S. have no sway over Prime Minister Netanyahu?

KAMALA HARRIS (Vice President of the United States (D) and U.S. Presidential Candidate): The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the Israelis and the people of Israel.

And when we think about the threat that Hamas, Hezbollah presents, Iran, I think that it is without any question our imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those kinds of attacks.

Now, the work that we do diplomatically with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles, which include the need for humanitarian aid, the need for this war to end, the need for a deal to be done which would release the hostages and create a cease-fire.

(End VT)

60 Minutes:

Kamala Harris has been a candidate for president for just two-and-a-half months and the post convention "honeymoon" is over. With the election just 29 days away, Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz face unrelenting attacks from Donald Trump, and the race remains extremely close.

We met the 59-year-old vice president this past week on the campaign trail and later at the vice president's residence in Washington, DC. We spoke about the economy and immigration, Ukraine, and China, but we began with the escalating war in the Middle East, one year after the Hamas terror attack on Israel.

Bill Whitaker: The events of the past few weeks have pushed us to the brink, if--if not into an all--out regional war in the Middle East. What can the U.S. do at this point to stop this from spinning out of control?

Vice President Kamala Harris: Well, let's start with October 7. 1,200 people were massacred, 250 hostages were taken, including Americans, women were brutally raped, and as I said then, I maintain Israel has a right to defend itself. We would. And how it does so matters. Far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. This war has to end.

Bill Whitaker: We supply Israel with billions of dollars in military aid, and yet Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be charting his own course. The Biden-Harris administration has pressed him to agree to a ceasefire. He's resisted. You urged him not to go into Lebanon. He went in anyway. Does the U.S. have no sway over Prime Minister Netanyahu?

Vice President Kamala Harris: The work that we do diplomatically with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles.

Bill Whitaker: But it seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not listening.

Vice President Kamala Harris: We are not gonna stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.

Bill Whitaker: Do we have a--a real close ally in Prime Minister Netanyahu?

Vice President Kamala Harris: I think, with all due respect, the better question is do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli people. And the answer to that question is yes.

While the war in the Middle East has dominated recent headlines, it's the economy that most concerns American voters this election year, as always.

www.cbsnews.com

That's cool, now explain the swing state polling.
#2 | Posted by Bluewaffles

Swing states are where the rightwing/red wave polling is the worst:

[I]t is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll --the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose--to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the "toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy" of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages--and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.

Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages. The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since August 31st of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters. . . .

The red wave campaign this year is on a much greater scale than 2022. It started much earlier, has many more actors and has produced far more polling. It needed to be bigger for in general election years there is more polling. So to move the averages more polls were needed, and they got to work earlier doing so. And this is important. In 2022 the campaign began late, in mid-October. They had less time to move the averages so their polls were often 3-4 points to the right of the polling as they needed these bigger margins to move the averages in a shorter time period. This time, because they started earlier and are producing more polls their polls are often only 1-2 points to the right of the polling average or independent polls. They are working the averages more carefully this time, over using the time and volume to move them gradually so the op is not as crude and as easy to see as last time. If Harris leads by 2.5 points and you drop 5 polls showing the race tied or her ahead by 1 or even 2 points the averages moves and it looks like she is losing altitude.

www.hopiumchronicles.com

Would Congress nonetheless defy the ECRA and act illegally? To reject a state's electoral votes would require a majority in each house of the newly elected Congress. No matter which party controls the House and Senate, its margin is expected to be thin. Sen. Susan Collins was the leader oncr the Republican side in the bipartisan Senate group that drafted the ECRA. Other Republicans in that group who will still be in the Senate in January 2025 include Lisa Murkowski, Todd Young, and Shelley Moore Capito. Let's assume for the sake of analysis Republicans control the House and have 51 or 52 Senators. It would still take only one or maybe two Republicans to abide by the terms of the ECRA that they themselves drafted to defeat any plot in Congress to steal the election.
Out of that group I would trust Murkowski to hold out. Not sure about the other 3. Speaking of trust, I posted this in another thread:
The second and only other basis on which the bipartisan Congress agreed it could lawfully object is also extremely limited. Congress can object if the document a governor sends in, identifying the electors, is defective in some way. Again, this provision does not give Congress the power to second guess the voting process in a state. Indeed, Sen. Ted Cruz voted against the Act precisely because it shut down Congress' power to do so.

The entire thrust of the ECRA is to emphasize that any disputes over the voting process are to be resolved in the courts, not in Congress.

Yes, the courts held in 2020, but will they in 2024? The SC will be the final arbitor, but I have no confidence that their rulings will be fair and impartial and won't favor Donald Trump.

Gal ... there was at least one article that made it to the front page about Kamala leading betting markets a few weeks back. So was that article wrong because it didn't gauge Trump's surge in popularity or what?
As well, Harris is losing every swing state aggregate polling. Are we to believe there's a problem with these polls as well?
#16 | Posted by Bluewaffles

As I said upthread, Forget the betting markets, forget the polls. Just vote:

The red wave campaign this year is on a much greater scale than 2022. It started much earlier, has many more actors and has produced far more polling. It needed to be bigger for in general election years there is more polling. So to move the averages more polls were needed, and they got to work earlier doing so. And this is important. In 2022 the campaign began late, in mid-October. They had less time to move the averages so their polls were often 3-4 points to the right of the polling as they needed these bigger margins to move the averages in a shorter time period. This time, because they started earlier and are producing more polls their polls are often only 1-2 points to the right of the polling average or independent polls. They are working the averages more carefully this time, over using the time and volume to move them gradually so the op is not as crude and as easy to see as last time. If Harris leads by 2.5 points and you drop 5 polls showing the race tied or her ahead by 1 or even 2 points the averages moves and it looks like she is losing altitude. . . .

The red wave 2024 campaign also includes a major new entrant, Polymarket, an off-shore crypto-based betting market whose lead investor is Peter Thiel, former business partner to Elon Musk and primary political patron of JD Vance. Polymarket is buying product placement on sites and with influencers for their 2024 American election results even though NO AMERICAN CAN LEGALLY PARTICIPATE IN PROCESS THAT DETERMINES THE DATA. Polymarket is everywhere. Harry Enten higlights their data on CNN. Right wing influencers pump Polymarket maps showing Trump "winning" everyday. Nate Silver is an advisor to Polymarket. Elon and Twitter of course are pumping this stuff, hard.

www.hopiumchronicles.com

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