Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Trump Always Chickens Out, Empire State Edition

The Republican Party has a problem in New York State. There is one person who can plausibly do something about it, but he refuses to get involved. And so, GOP operatives are currently busy tearing their hair out.

Posted by A_Friend at 08:44 PM | 3 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

Snip ...

The problem is the gubernatorial race. The people of New York have sent just one member of the red team to the governor's mansion in the last half-century, but Republicans like their chances in 2026. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) is not terribly popular, and the GOP wants to portray her as both a tool of the upstate elites (an old trick, going at least as far back as complaints of Martin Van Buren's "Albany Regency") and yet also a clone of Zohran Mamdani. The Republicans think this might just be the path to the promised land.

The issue is that even if Hochul is vulnerable, disunity on the Republican side simply will not do. A messy primary will cost a lot of money and will leave the winner bruised and bleeding. And a messy primary is what is on tap, at least as of the moment. On one side is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), and on the other side is Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R). They're both very MAGA, they both have a relationship with Donald Trump. Usually, when it's MAGA vs. MAGA, the contest turns into a lot of personal attacks and a lot of claims about who is the Trumpiest. And Democratic operatives are going to record every single one of those statements, so they can put them in ads once the primaries are over.

Trump, of course, could ride to his Party's rescue by making an endorsement. It would be hard for someone to keep going as "the MAGA candidate" if the other person has Trump's backing. But, as much as Republican operatives beg, Trump refuses to pick a horse. Instead, he's picked TWO horses, doing the thing he does where he endorses BOTH candidates. That's good for purposes of his peacocking on social media, we suppose, since he can claim to be on the winning side no matter what happens. It's not great for his political party, though.

#1 | Posted by A_Friend at 2025-12-16 08:45 PM

snip ...

Truth be told, we believe the Republican thinking on this race is pure fantasy. It is possible that, one day not too far in the future, New York will again have a Republican governor. But it's not going to be in 2026. Hochul is not especially popular, but she's not radioactive, the way that Andrew Cuomo might be. There's also the great likelihood that all Republicans are going to face midterm-backlash headwinds. Oh, and just as we don't believe an outspoken lefty can win statewide in Texas, we don't believe a MAGA candidate can win in New York. It would have to be a normal Republican, not a Trump sycophant. Also, the GOP strategy here is basically nonsensical. They're going to sell Hochul as a wild-eyed leftist upstate, but as a tool-of-the-establishment centrist in NYC? Do they think there is a wall running through Woodstock that keeps sound from crossing over? Do they think voters in the various parts of the state aren't going to figure out that the Republicans are selling two very different Hochuls, and they couldn't possibly both be true?

Since we don't actually see much relevance to the New York governor's race here, that means there's only one reason to talk about this story, and it's Trump. Once again, he shows he doesn't have the spine to make tough choices when it involves people who have flattered him and puffed up his ego. We have no doubt that Stefanik and Blakeman have found a way to make sure he knows how very impressed they are with his having won the FIFA Peace Prize. Such an important honor!

Also, it's reminder #237 that Trump doesn't give two craps about his Party's fortunes; he only cares about his own needs and his own image. After all, what's it to him if Hochul remains as governor? Truth be told, that's probably better for him than if one of the Republicans wins, since he can use Hochul as a bugaboo when needed. In any event, the needs of Trump and the needs of the GOP will continue to diverge, and the longer that GOP muckety-mucks refuse to accept and deal with that fact, the more damage that will be done. (Z)

#2 | Posted by A_Friend at 2025-12-16 08:46 PM

@#1 ... the GOP wants to portray her as both a tool of the upstate elites ...

The question becomes, what is the definition of "upstate?"

Usually I see it used nowadays as meaning, ~not NYC,~ referring to the Republican counties north of NYC, and other red counties of New York state.


#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-12-16 09:29 PM

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