Hey there, #1-5: calm down.

A 25bp cut on the front end of the UST curve means nearly nothing to those in the market for residential mortgages. Nearly all US home loans are priced over the 10-year US Treasury security, which this morning (11/8/24, 9:26 EST) is at 4.31%, down 7 basis points from a week ago. Once upon a time one could look at the 10-yr, add 175bp and come pretty close to 30-year mortgage rates. Now the spread is 300bp so current mortgage rates are over 7.00% today.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee almost never takes action that affects the long end of the curve. The FOMC wants that market to do the heavy lifting, with the FOMC acting after the dust has settled. Their actions lag the market. This has been done since the days of Alan Greenspan. The only significant effect the FOMC can have on long rates is in times of 'quantatative easing' or 'quantatative tightening'. In 2008-09 the Fed eased by entering the bond market and buying up Treasuries, agency bonds and Fannie/Freddie home mortgage bonds, so as to flood the market with cash and keep liquidity available. For the past few years the Fed has been tightening by selling bonds from its portfolio, and taking cash out of the economy. This causes interest rates to rise or at least stay higher. This can be a very powerful tool, but one used only in an emergency. Why? It can cause inflation.

With the change in administrations, the Fed will be cautious for some months to come. If King Dotard II imposes tariffs, kicks brown-skinned folk out of the country or gets significant changes to the tax code (e.g., eliminating taxes on Social Security payments) inflation will blast off, and the Fed does not want to act beforehand so as to make things worse. A 7% mortgage rate is not so bad (I've had higher). The problem with the housing market is on the supply side, not with the ability of buyers to borrow.

PS: If the king thinks he can fire Jay Powell or bring him to heel, he is mistaken. The bond market is the most powerful force in the world, and one messes with it at one's peril...