More from the analysis ...

... That calibration is what made Vladimir Putin's gray zone strategy work.

As American leadership wobbles in the Trump era and front-line Europe loses patience, the calibration is breaking down.

Putin spent years trying to weaken America's grip on NATO. He may not enjoy the alliance he is helping to create.

The Gray Zone Meets NATO Hesitation

The useful phrase here is the "gray zone."

It means the contested space below open war where cyberattacks, sabotage, drone incursions, airspace violations and electronic interference create pressure without always producing clean attribution.

NATO says Russia's hostile actions toward allies and partners -- hybrid warfare that includes airspace violations, cyberattacks and sabotage -- are increasing in frequency.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance says NATO's eastern flank faces growing Russian gray zone threats, including UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), incursions and sabotage, and that front-line states are adding fortifications, surveillance systems and short-range air defenses.

Czech President Petr Pavel told The Guardian recently that Moscow had learned to "almost meet the threshold for Article 5, but always keeping it slightly below that level."

Pavel urged NATO to "show its teeth."

He floated "decisive enough, potentially even asymmetric" responses, including disabling Russian internet or satellites, cutting Russian banks from global systems or shooting down aircraft that violate allied airspace. ...