The NATO Putin Should Fear Is One America No Longer Controls

More from the analysis ...

... That calibration is what made Vladimir Putin's gray zone strategy work.

As American leadership wobbles in the Trump era and front-line Europe loses patience, the calibration is breaking down.

Putin spent years trying to weaken America's grip on NATO. He may not enjoy the alliance he is helping to create.

The Gray Zone Meets NATO Hesitation

The useful phrase here is the "gray zone."

It means the contested space below open war where cyberattacks, sabotage, drone incursions, airspace violations and electronic interference create pressure without always producing clean attribution.

NATO says Russia's hostile actions toward allies and partners -- hybrid warfare that includes airspace violations, cyberattacks and sabotage -- are increasing in frequency.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance says NATO's eastern flank faces growing Russian gray zone threats, including UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), incursions and sabotage, and that front-line states are adding fortifications, surveillance systems and short-range air defenses.

Czech President Petr Pavel told The Guardian recently that Moscow had learned to "almost meet the threshold for Article 5, but always keeping it slightly below that level."

Pavel urged NATO to "show its teeth."

He floated "decisive enough, potentially even asymmetric" responses, including disabling Russian internet or satellites, cutting Russian banks from global systems or shooting down aircraft that violate allied airspace. ...

... NATO is scrambling to fortify a windswept Baltic island that military planners increasingly see as one of the alliance's most exposed -- and strategically vital -- front lines against Russia.

Perched in the middle of the Baltic Sea, Gotland sits just 300 kilometers from Russia's heavily militarized exclave of Kaliningrad. As fears grow over Russian aggression, hybrid attacks and wavering U.S. commitment to European security, Sweden and its NATO allies are racing to turn Gotland back into a military stronghold.

Last week, Sweden wrapped up its first NATO-coordinated exercise on the island since joining the alliance in 2024. Around 18,000 troops from 13 countries trained across Gotland's dusty plains for a possible Russian assault.

A Russian attack "could happen anytime," Swedish Chief of Defense Michael Claesson told POLITICO, as soldiers weaved between armored vehicles on the western side of the island.

The exercise highlighted the difficulties faced by Sweden: The U.S. shrank its participation -- part of a larger pattern as Donald Trump pulls back from NATO -- and the Ukrainian troops taking part in the training showed off their drone warfare mastery by rapidly destroying a Swedish armored detachment. ...

@#2 ... The U.S. shrank its participation -- part of a larger pattern as Donald Trump pulls back from NATO ..

As Pres Trump seems to be following Pres Putin's dicta ...

@#4 ... "Western armies, with their artillery and armoured vehicles, are out of date whereas "it is Ukraine that today has perhaps the most combat-ready army in Europe", wrote Oleg Dunda, a member of parliament for Ukraine, in The Spectator. ...

imo, a good observation of the current state of warfare.

Fortunately for Ukraine (Iran also), it's leadership has been taking a different approach with using inexpensive drones. And Ukraine has been quite willing to share its acquired drones knowledge with NATO (unlike Iran).

The question then becomes, how much will Pres Putin's control of Pres trump weigh in upon NATO (and even the US's) acceptance of Ukraine's offer to share the drone technology?