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... And until that disconnect closes, Americans should not expect relief at the gas station, no matter what happens to WTI crude.

Pump prices are being established by the supply and demand of refined petroleum products, not crude.

"That's one of the reasons why we haven't seen crude rise as quickly as people have thought, or we didn't see product prices fall as crude prices came down." Woods said on CNBC's Squawk Box.

What Exxon's CEO actually said

Woods framed the disconnect with the authority of someone who has 35 years in the refining business, and the explanation deserves a careful read.

Historically, refineries always had excess supply, Woods said. That meant pump prices tracked crude prices closely, because crude was the dominant cost input and refining was never the binding constraint. When crude fell, gasoline fell. When crude rose, gasoline followed.

Woods continued to explain. "Pump prices are being established by the supply and demand of refined petroleum products, not crude."

The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Middle Eastern refined-product exports simultaneously with crude exports. Global refineries scrambled to fill the gap.

Shell's CEO described the same dynamic in my previous coverage: that refineries pivoted to maximum jet fuel production at the expense of diesel and gasoline. Now the diesel and gasoline shortfall shows in retail pump prices even as WTI crude has not risen proportionally. ...