And we need to talk about the mentality of our mad king.

First, Trump is insane

Second, it is highly likely he is not being informed of or understands the negative implications of this war or his limited range of options. He is surrounded by sycophants who won't tell him the truth.

Third, he will only react to major negative impacts, like the stock market crashing

Fourth, he has repeatedly questioned why we don't use nukes

Fifth, most of his advisors are wholly incompetent (Hegseth) or downright sociopathic (Miller) or over their head (Caine)

Trump seems to think he can shape reality with his lies. Unfortunately, he has been successful with that strategy (politically) for a very long time. He thinks he can materialize victory out of his mouth.

The problem is that Iran is not the republican party or the American voters, they are a rational actor who holds a tremendous advantage.

And Trump's TACO is unlikely to work. That would require a fig leaf of "winning"

I can see him trying to reach an agreement with Iran so he can extricate himself from this mess

But Iran has near ZERO reason to agree to anything.

They are winning. They are in control of this war/

They WILL demand a great deal to assure that Israel and the US isn't back in 6 to 12 months attacking them again.

I remind you we had an agreement with them which we unilaterally withdrew from, we attacked them TWICE in the middle of negotiations. TWICE

AND OH YEAH WE MURDERED THEIR LEADER WHO HAPPENS TO BE THE TOP GUY IN THE SHIA RELIGION. And we killed many family members of the new leader, who happens to be more hardline then his father.

Any guarantee that Iran would accept will likely be HUGE, like us withdrawing from the Middle East or permitting Iran to actually get nukes. Stuff likely considered very unacceptable at this moment. but with a world wide depression, who knows?

And then there is the Israel factor.

They clearly view this as an existential war. Will they give up with an emboldened and stronger Iran? Will they agree to stop their criminal aggression?

I really don't think so, so far this war has been very popular with the Israeli people and the people running this war in Israel are as fanatical and abusive as the Iranians.

The results of Iran's success has been several fold.

They are able to pound Israel in ways that Israel has never experienced before. Entire neighborhoods are being leveled.

Iran has forced our navy out of Bahrain, meaning we need to go to India or Diego Garcia to rearm, meaning our ability to project force is drastically reduced as the navy loses time in transit.

Iran can degrade the oil and urea 'pipeline' out of the gulf, which has massive economic ripple effects.

Iran can do this with limited resources.

We lack an effective counter to Iran's capabilities. And we lack options to counter Iran's capabilities. We can bomb, more intensively, but Iran's rocket, drone and missile program are spread throughout the country in buried vaults/silos. That means each and every one has to be located and hit with heavy ordnance. That is it, that is the extent of our basic options.

Beyond that we can try to incite a civil war, which would fail. Kurds want nothing to do with us. The Iranian civilian population is unarmed and killing children (unapologetically) hardly endears us to them, so regime change from within just ain't going to work.

We can use land forces. But to what end. We simply do not have the troops or allies to do a massive land invasion. Ain't going to happen.

We can use land forces for limited objectives like securing the straits or seizing Iran's nuclear material.

But each of these is fraught with serious dangers. I hope I don't have to explain the hazards our marines would face in they landed along the Iranian shore or on Kharg island.

If we try to seize the nuclear material, we would need the 101st airborne and massive special forces along with a large contingent of experts to deal with the nuclear material, which is buried under rubble so heavy equipment. I hope you understand how dangerous that option would be

So, then there is ummm, well let's say it...

The end of the war is no longer under our control

You're a liar jeff why would anyone believe anything you post?

which is accomplished through specific acts you drooling idiot

Like

Starvation
Killing
Displacement
Denial of education
Denial of medicine
Destruction of housing
Denial of clean water
Denial of basic rights

You know, Israeli policy

You really are an idiot.

You do understand how time works, right? 2000 happened before 2023. You understand that correct?
You do understand that the genocide did not start in 2000, it started in 2023. You understand that right?
You understand that 2023 is LATER than 2000? Right?
You do understand that the population growth rate is not the definition of a genocide right? You understand that right?
A genocide are the actions and the intent of one group over another.

Look at the intentional targeting of civilians
Look at the land theft
Look at the starvation
Look at the collective punishment
Look at the forced displacement
Look at statements from the Netanyahu government
Look at the treatment of Palestinian detainees (aka hostages)
Look at the destruction of the Gaza strip
Look at the restriction of aid and food
Genocide

In their own words.

the deputy speaker of Israel's parliament, said was the country's "one common goal" after October 7, 2023: "erasing the Gaza Strip from the face of the earth."

Netanyahu described the operation as Israel's "concluding moves," the purpose of which was to ensure that "Gazans choose to emigrate outside the Strip."

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared in early May that in six months, Gaza would cease to exist. The surviving population, he added, would be herded into a single "humanitarian zone" and"broken by despair"would depart, "understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza."

I stated this on another thread(s), I will state it again.

Iran is winning.

the attacks on the oil "pipeline" has been devastating. Iraq has shut down it's port. Traffic through Hormuz has dried up.

The gulf states have limited storage capacity.

Once that capacity is reached, the pumps are shut off

The pumps cannot simply be turned back on, it takes weeks if not months to restart an oil well.

We are on the edge of the abyss

Thanks magat scum

Here's one for you

Noncombat fire on USS Gerald Ford injures two sailors
Two American sailors have been wounded in a noncombat-related fire on the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier, the US military says.

The blaze originated in the ship's main laundry area, CENTCOM said, adding that there was no damage to the ship's propulsion plant and the two soldiers were in stable condition.

"The aircraft carrier remains fully operational," it said.

Anyone really believe this from our government?

That during active, high volume attack on Iran that the laundry stewards dropped a cigarette into a laundry basket?

You think something like that rises to the level of a CENTCOM press release?

They had to assure us the propulsion wasn't effected?!? Like WTF!?! What does a small fire in the laundry room have to do with the engines?????????

Really?

Assume for a second that this press release is a lie?

What does that tell you?

Iran hit our carrier?

That would not be good.

I am not saying it happened or even likely, but it is a realistic possibility.

Yes, I fully admit this is conjecture, but our government is CLEARLY lying about the cost of this war.

Let me make this perfectly clear Corky

Piggy is in no way positioned to successfully Taco.

Iran would have to buy into that Taco

They are winning

Understand that

Iran is winning.

Iran has zero incentive to stop fighting

If they stop they lose their advantage

If they stop Israel and the US will rearm and come back better prepared a year from now.

Iran understands that.

Piggy has shown himself utterly untrustworthy. He withdrew from an important agreement and attacked Iran TWICE in the midst of negotiations.

Iran has zero reason to agree to any ceasing of hostilities.

Iran's response has been devastating and a HUGE surprise to our military. Think about that, we spend a trillion dollars per year and are SURPRISED by the response from Iran?

That is Pearl Harbor levels of incompetence.

Israel is getting pounded by Iranian missiles and Iran is not even sending that many there. Israel's interceptors simply cannot either keep up with the number of incoming missiles OR cannot intercept the faster missiles.

It is decidedly in Iran's favor to extend hostilities until there is REAL pain and Piggy has to come crawling for a truce.

That is going to mean serious concessions by Piggy, like withdrawal from the middle east.

Do you think Piggy is willing to do that?

He would sooner use a couple of tactical nukes to get his way

No, Piggy will not Taco, it is too late for that

Thanks magat scum.