The technology adoption life cycle attractor: Understanding the dynamics of high-tech markets (2004)
www.sciencedirect.com

... Abstract
Unlike more stable industries, high-tech firms must constantly be in a strategy development phase. These companies are in desperate need of assistance in strategy formulation. This paper introduces a quantitative (rather than subjective) approach to help high-tech firms to understand their position in the technology adoption life cycle using some of the principles and tools of Chaos and Complexity theories. ...

The technology adoption life cycle

The technology adoption life cycle is a means for classifying the market and its reaction to a high-tech product. ...

Defining the technology adoption life cycle
To address this problem, it is necessary to first provide a clear definition of the technology adoption life cycle and its phases. For the purposes of this work, the technology adoption life cycle was defined as consisting of six discrete phases roughly corresponding to the phases described by Moore [1]. These phases are as follows:

1. Innovation
2. Chasm
3. Tornado
4. Main Street
5. Decline
6. Obsolescence

[image]
hmestrum.blogs.com

My guess is that, regarding AI, we are currently residing in the peak of inflated expectations in that chart.

Gartner hype cycle
en.wikipedia.org

... The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research and advisory firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies.

The hype cycle framework was introduced in 1995 by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn[1] to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases.[2] ...

Five phases
General hype cycle for technology

Each hype cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.

1. Technology trigger
A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

2. Peak of inflated expectations
Early publicity produces a number of success stories"often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most do not.

3. Trough of disillusionment
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

4. Slope of enlightenment
More instances of the technology's benefits start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

5. Plateau of productivity
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. If the technology has more than a niche market, then it will continue to grow.[5]

The term "hype cycle" and each of the associated phases are now used more broadly in the marketing of new technologies. ...

Yeah, we currently seem to be in Phase 2 regarding AI.