Monday, August 11, 2025

Tropical Storm Erin forms

The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small, but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt suggesting the convection is now sufficently organized to be classified as a tropical cyclone. We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection, with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge. The combination of all this data suggests that a tropical storm has formed, and NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Erin with a current intensity of 40 kt.

Comments

At this point, Erin looks like one to watch ...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-11 11:53 AM

Erin looks like one to watch ...

Could turn into a pretty big storm if it stays away from land.

#2 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-08-11 12:49 PM

Looks to be a "major" storm by Saturday ...

www.nhc.noaa.gov

#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-11 01:16 PM

#3 | Posted by LampLighter

Uh, oh Florida & Georgia

#4 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2025-08-11 01:19 PM

Some forecasters are saying that some models are showing Erin curving to the north before it hits the US.

But there is uncertainty that far out in the models.

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-11 03:18 PM

Erin curving to the north before it hits the US.

That would be my bet, based on recent activity.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-08-11 03:20 PM

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