Tuesday, August 12, 2025

US consumer prices increase moderately

U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, though rising costs for services such as airline fares and some tariff-sensitive goods like household furniture caused a measure of underlying inflation to post its largest gain in six months. The mixed report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday did not change financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September amid signs of a deterioration in labor market conditions.

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... Economists, however, cautioned that higher prices from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs were still coming. They argued that businesses continued to sell merchandise accumulated before the import duties came into effect. ...

"Investors might want to hold back on the no-inflation celebration, however, because the goods sitting on store shelves arrived on boats months ago and the tariff hikes have yet to be applied to the goods on ships steaming the consumers' way right now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS ...

The CPI rose 0.2% last month after a gain of 0.3% in June. The moderation reflected a 2.2% decline in gasoline prices. Food prices were unchanged after rising 0.3% for two straight months. Grocery store food prices fell 0.1% as a 3.9% drop in the cost of eggs more than offset a 1.5% increase in beef prices and 1.9% rise in the cost of milk.

In the 12 months through July, the CPI advanced 2.7%, matching the rise in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.2% and increase 2.8% on a year-over-year basis.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, the biggest gain since January, after climbing 0.2% in June. The so-called core CPI was lifted by higher prices for services, including a 4.0% rebound in airline fares as well as strong increases in the costs of healthcare and dental services.

The cost of household furnishings and supplies rose 0.7%, while footwear prices surged 1.4%. Motor vehicle parts and equipment prices vaulted 0.9%, driven by a 1.0% increase in the cost of tires.

The core CPI increased 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in July after an advance of 2.9% in June. ...




#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-12 11:54 AM

"7.8% inflation is less than 9!"

MAGAT ---------

#2 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-08-12 01:24 PM

Where is ScottS to explain this all to us?

#3 | Posted by jpw at 2025-08-12 03:38 PM


This CPI report complicates the upcoming Fed decision.

Labor is starting to show some cracks in its strength. That would indicate a bias towards a rate cut.

But inflation seems to be starting to creep up. That would indicate a bias towards holding the rates steady.

Keep in mind, though, there is another tranche of financial data before the Fed's September meeting, so it looks more like a ~stay tuned~ type of thing.

I will say that from what I saw of talking heads today on finance TV, Wall Street seems to have increased their odds of a Fed rate decrease in September.

But with another batch of data before then, I'll choose not to occupy that limb with them.




#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-12 06:15 PM

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