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#13 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-01-24 08:14 PM
More like self-made billionaire, media magnate and former mayor of America's largest city collides with fantasy billionaire bankruptcy case who inherited his money from his Klansman daddy, stiffed the government out of millions in tax dollars and is only still a thing thanks to shady loans from Hitler's favorite bank most likely backed by Russian oligarchs.

Exact description and bears repeating.

Of course, Dems don't care about record of actual accomplisments, especially in private sector, unless it has to do with being high on the ladder of government.

BTW, Bloomberg is the only one who holds Dotard to 42% in latest national and battleground states, including Mischigan, and has or ties for the highest spread between DemX vs Trump.

He also doesn't scare people with promises to give away too much "free stuff" (like e.g., "forgive all student debt, without Congress" or "declare global warming state of emergency on day 1") or kill the economy by overtaxing everyone to oblivion (OK, only "the rich" who will find the ways to avoid or pass the taxes, like downstream to consumers and the middle class.)

Maybe he is not popular with some typically Dem groups like AAs, but that's what VPs are for - Kamala Harris or someone else could fill in the blanks.

Or Dems can go with Socialist Senators, Semi-Socialist former VP past his prime living out "Obama legacy" (Obama was stuck in low 40's approval for most of his terms, too) and Mayor Babyface qho will be digitally eaten alive and if "the best ever economy" faux meme holds on till November, will make them easier to beat than Hillary in EC.

Because elections are always relative to the "other guy" - lately it's usually a choice of who is "worse" to vote against.
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#13 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2020-01-24 08:14 PM
More like self-made billionaire, media magnate and former mayor of America's largest city collides with fantasy billionaire bankruptcy case who inherited his money from his Klansman daddy, stiffed the government out of millions in tax dollars and is only still a thing thanks to shady loans from Hitler's favorite bank most likely backed by Russian oligarchs.

Exact description and bears repeating.

Of course, Dems don't care about record of actual accomplisments, especially in private sector, unless it has to do with being high on the ladder of government.

BTW, Bloomberg is the only one who holds Dotard to 42% in latest national and battleground states, including Mischigan, and has or ties for the highest spread between DemX vs Trump.

He also doesn't scare people with promises to give away too much "free stuff" (like e.g., "forgive all student debt, without Congress" or "declare global warming state of emergency on day 1") or kill the economy by overtaxing everyone to oblivion (OK, only "the rich" who will find the ways to avoid or pass the taxes, like downstream to consumers and the middle class.)

Maybe he is not popular with some typically Dem groups like AAs, but that's what VPs are for - Kamala Harris or someone else could fill in the blanks.

Or Dems can go with Socialist Senators, Semi-Socialist former VP past his prime living out "Obama legacy" (Obama was stuck in low 40's approval for most of his terms, too) and Mayor Babyface qho will be digitally eaten alive and if "the best ever economy" faux meme holds on till November, will make them easier to beat than Hillary in EC.

Because elections are always relative to the "other guy" - lately it's usually a choice of who is "worse" to vote against.
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#12 | Posted by YAV at 2020-01-24 01:08 PM
Obama's recovery and growth.

It's actually not "Obama's recovery and growth." Most of his term he had a Republican Congress (since 2010 "shellacking" by Tea Party), auto industry bailout and monetizing of $600B financial liquidity package was originated and scripted mostly by the Fed under Ben Bernanke, with the help of Nancy Pelosi and Bush administration and happened under George W. Bush. Later, the Fed kept providing liquidity and quantitative easings (QE1-3) under Obama and both Democratic And GOP Congresses as well as monetizing fiscal deficits some of which were only partially justified by the need to fiscally stimulate portions of the economy as well as accommodating the financial markets.

Practically, the lion's share of credit for the longevity of this recovery should be given mostly to Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and now Jerome Powell, with some smidgeon of fiscal and regulatory relaxation under both administrations at the expense of the deficits and increased debt. This, and, with some lag, the European economies, just as 3 decades of Japanese economy were the Central banks' liquidity-driven economies.

The huge fiscal deficits currently, under "Who cares about the budget?" Trump and then all/now mostly GOP Congress is an absolute disgrace, and yet even with all these huge budget deficits and the Fed once again expending the balance sheet and pumping liquidity at breakneck speed - yes, you heard it here first, the Great Repo Market intervention/bailout means we are now in QE4, even if they don't call it that - due to corrupt and brain-dead trade, fiscal and immigration policies of Trump, the economic growth, job market growth and wages growth are barely moving and actually slowing down despite all the fiscal and monetary stimulus.

It takes special kind of talent to brag about the "accomplishments" of the inherited demographics, tech-led free/gig economy changes while simultaneously trying to destroy it by imposing Soviet-style central planning with the President picking and choosing winners and losers (which factory must stay open and who can or can't move plant or headquarters to another place, which companies are allowed to trade without tariffs (e.g., Apple...) and which can't (e.g.,Huawei, Broadcom...) etc., causing the capital / DFI drain and brain-drain of Chinese and other "foreign" existing and potential future scientists, entrepreneurs, founders, students) but Trump certainly has this kind of "talent for destruction."

"If it moves - tax it, if it keeps moving - regulate it, if it stops moving subsidize it" (Ronald Reagan, describing central planning of economy)
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(cont'd)

Manufacturing is in recession, officially. Most of retail is in recession despite false claims of "strong consumer" - "consumer confidence" soft data surveys are not supported by "consumer spending" hard data, same story in "rising wages" in this gig economy. Many farms are going bankrupt and/or sell for almost nothing, new "phase one and done" deal "based on market conditions" (read the fine print regarding so-called 'commitments') with China notwithstanding. "Tariff Man" is not popular with small businessmen left broke after his and Kushners' renamed (NAFTA -> USMCA) or crooked "deals" that make things the same or worse off than have been in place before or could have been done without all the trade negotiations dramas, after another episode of Trump schitt-shows. Huge trade deficits will continue - of course, there is no problem with having "trade deficits" unless you are Trump / Navarro "trade" cultist. The real problem - budget deficits and increases in national debt are going higher despite "the best economy ever" i.e., a very slow recovery, even slower than under Obama. Jobs creation is also slower than under Obama, especially for "prime age" workforce - which makes sense considering late stages of the economic cycle, but nothing to brag about.

A few of many esteemed fact-based conclusions:


WSJ: "With So Many Vacant Stores, E-Commerce Is Only Part of the Problem. Don't blame all the vacant stores on e-commerce. Sky-high rents are squeezing retailers, too."

FT: "Shop vacancies rise across Europe and big brands desert New York's Fifth Avenue and high-end malls"

Mark Hulbert (MW): "Why the stock market's top 20 years ago is a warning for investors now. Valuations are less extreme " but not by much"

John Authers (Bloomberg): "Do the Machines Driving Markets Remember 2000? Quant strategies are even more overweight in this tech-led stocks rally than individual investors. U.S. Stocks Rally Starts to Resemble 2000 Tech Euphoria"

Investor Jimmy Rogers: "The Fed has increased its balance sheet over 500% in the past decade; The Bank of Japan is printing money to buy bonds and stock ETFs; and The European Central Bank is mired in insane negative interests." Rogers notes that "in 2008 we had problems because of too much debt, however, since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and it's going higher and higher. We all are going to pay a horrible price someday but in the meantime it's a lot of fun for a lot of people."

There's so much more if you take the blinders off.
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#4 | Posted by AndreaMackris at 2020-01-23 11:24 PM
So pardon me if I see a disconnect.

You are hereby pardoned.

It takes blinders not to see the sharp deceleration in the economy, despite spiking passive ETF and tech-led stock market.

Leading indicators for December 2019 just turned sharply lower and negative at -0.3% from already anemic 0.1%.

Lakshman Achuthan is a co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute:
(Sources: U.S. government; Economic Cycle Research Institute)

"The Strength of Consumers Is Overstated. Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending.

The consensus is that the U.S. consumer is still strong enough to propel the economy forward even though the manufacturing sector has weakened. This view underpins expectations for improved corporate earnings in 2020. But the hard economic data strikes a discordant note. In particular, growth in industrial production on a year-over-year basis remains in a decisive downturn, sliding deeper into negative territory. Indeed, the production actually declined in 2019 amid losses in manufacturing job in recent months, fueling talk of a recession in that part of the economy.

The undeniable weakness in manufacturing has caused the consensus to trumpet the strength of the consumer. Yet, the consumer, while reportedly confident, is not spending hand over fist. Rather, weakening sales trends underscore a sustained slowdown in consumer spending.

Real retail sales growth fell to a six-month low of 1.25% in November on a y-o-y basis, from 3.75% two years earlier. Big rebound in December was due to a highly favorable comparison to the disastrous December 2018. Plus, that doesn't negate the fact that spending growth has been tailing off even though surveys report a confident consumer and the stock market is at record highs.

The lifeblood of the average consumer is job growth, not stock prices. So it's important to recognize that year-over-year growth in nonfarm payrolls has dropped to its lowest level in 2.25 years. Not only that, but growth in total hours worked " which reflects growth in both jobs and the length of the workweek " hasn't been this weak since 2010, dropping to 0.9% in December from just over 2% a year earlier.

Worse, growth in total pay has fallen even faster over the past year or so than growth in hours worked, slowing to a 3.8% pace from almost 5.5%. The y-o-y growth in average hourly earnings " the ratio of total pay to total hours worked " has fallen to 1.1% from 1.6%. That is worrisome downturn in wage growth even in the face of a very low 3.5% jobless rate.

For the average American, this limits spending growth. No matter how confident consumers might feel, there's only so much fresh debt they can realistically incur to support even more spending. The hard data shows growth in jobs, total pay and total hours worked are stuck in cyclical downswings. It also shows weakening trends in consumer spending and industrial production growth.

Meanwhile, one third of those buying new vehicles have negative equity in the used ones they are trading in, up from about one quarter before the financial crisis. And farm debt has topped $400 billion, up almost 40% since 2012.

That is why the boost to the economy from the Fed's dovish pivot primarily aided relatively narrow parts of the economy - financial services, residential construction and affluent consumers. But it has not helped business investment or average consumers.

(cont'd)
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With Biden, Will Democrats Be Both Safe and Sorry?

"Sorry" they will be, but where do they get "safe" from? "Safe" from what? Attacks on Joe and Hunter? "Hunter Biden - lock him up!" "Corrupt / Crooked Joe - he must go!"

Dems have a gaggle of "long past due and expired by 'date of elections'" socialists, a Babyface and some nondescript senator who happens to be a woman?

Trump needs to be contrasted by someone credible with real life accomplishments. After Kamala exit ("not socialist or billionaire" - thanks, McCain-Feingold) the only credible and highly contrasting accomplished candidate who beats Trump on all checkmarks now is Bloomberg (real businessman, real self-made billionaire, not trust-fund baby who failed in investments, real estate and negotiating / deals, 10-30 times richer than Trump, can insult Trump without childish name-calling - even people who voted against Hillary because "Trump is a businessman" or didn't vote would vote for Mayor Mike in droves.)

Bloomberg is running because he can spend money on himself (and the party / other candidates) as a candidate that he couldn't otherwise due to stupidity of McCain-Feingold that was sold as "taking the money from politics" while doing exactly the opposite. That already shows more intelligence than any of the Dem candidates involved in the so-called "debates".

He also might get a VP like Kamala, or someone palatable in 2024/2028 who would be 10 times preferable to droid Pence.

Trump already tried to take a shot at Bloomberg and failed miserably after being shut down by a single tweet-back. Trump can't run against Bloomberg like "saving the country / world from 'socialism'" - that's not Bloomberg's narrative or persona.

Or Dems could repeat experience of "old and tired" Hillary! - choose someone who is even less acceptable to few thousand people in few Midwest states than Trump. How "safe" is that?

If Biden a "safe" (read 'default') option because others are not electable, then there is still time to change the course. Or do Dems, like GOP, need at least 8 years to learn self-evident lessons?

What a pitiful bunch to put against one of the worst presidential candidates of all time!

As the wise men wrote in the script: Follow the money!

www.rawstory.com - Here's why Congress wants to look inside the bank that fronted Donald Trump $2 billion - story of Deutsche Bank, money laundering, Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, Jeffrey Epstein and mysterious suicides... (by Dana Kennedy)

www.rawstory.com - David Cay Johnston explains how Democrats saved Trump's North America trade deal - story of Trump's "America First" trade deals and fiscal policies which are as bankrupt as his real estate and other Trump Organization business deals - by David Cay Johnston / DC Report, a well known "Trump history" expert.

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