1st of 8

"We're about two weeks out from the election, so I want to get right to it with this biweekly-ish newsletter. First, the quick reminder: We're here to get VP Harris and Coach Walz to the White House, deliver them a Democratic Congress, and then help our new Democratic trifecta pass democracy reform and codify reproductive freedom. These newsletters are one way I try to share what I'm seeing, brag about what Indivisibles are doing, engage in some honest-to-God movement-wide conversation -- and occasionally share photos of our adorable IndivisiKids. We're almost there, so let's hop to a summary:

The News: The media has been consumed by it: the polls! Harris is down! These demographic groups are slipping! That battleground is lost! We're losing!!! Real talk: We're not losing. And Trump and his MAGAs are actively building a sense of inevitability so they can turn around and deny the results after they lose. My practical advice is simple: Don't help them. For your own mental health and for the good of this campaign, accept that the race is extremely close and focus on contacting voters. That's the winning play.

2nd of 8

The Brag: Speaking of doing the work ... we're doing the work. I'm writing this summary from a flight to Texas to get Colin Allred elected, while Leah is headed to Bucks County, Pennsylvania to talk about reproductive freedom. Indivisibles across the country are blowing through our door targets across the country. It's rock and roll time.

The Discussion: We know there's a lot of anxiety and uncertainty about what will happen on election day and in the aftermath. We'll talk through what we've been seeing around the country, how we'll be watching the returns, and what the plans are for potential post-election challenge activities.

3rd of 8

The News: What we should talk about when we talk about POLLS: The frustrating limits of data right now.

Let me tell you a story that's on my mind.

It's a snowy night outside a rowdy bar. A drunk man stands near a lamppost, rummaging through the snow. A friendly passerby notices his frantic search and asks, "Do you need help?"

"I'm looking for my wallet -- I dropped it over there," the man replies, pointing to a dark patch of ground across the street.

Puzzled, the passerby asks, "Then why are you looking here?"

The drunk man, exasperated at the question, responds, "Because this is where the light is!"

4th of 8

Data is great. Data can shine a light on frustratingly impenetrable problems. I love using data to make informed decisions about where and how we invest more of our time, energy, and resources to defeat the MAGAs. But just because data can generate light doesn't mean it always tells us what we need to know. Sometimes, the wallet is on the dark side of the road.

Pollsters can tell you how their model of the electorate will vote.

What they can't tell you is whether their model of the electorate represents the actual electorate. Nobody can; it's really hard to do, and it's getting harder. That's why the polls were so off in 2016 and 2020. Every year, pollsters try new tools and techniques to adapt their models, but we won't know until the actual election whose model was accurate.

5th of 8

Two weeks out from the election, the daily barrage of polls is shining a lot of light and demanding a lot of attention. Politicos, media talking heads, and armchair Nate Silvers are searching around that lamppost. They're making grand proclamations about what we're all desperate to know: who's gonna win?

The Democratic FREAKOUT has arrived. Along with those polls and hot takes comes the inevitable, predictable, almost sacred Democratic Party ritual: the quadrennial late stage election freakout.

Like clockwork, at this time of year we get Democrats worrying about their candidate. We read that after a comfortable Democratic lead, the Republican is making troubling gains in October. We hear alarming reports from bellwether battleground counties in the most important swing states. There's talk that the seemingly unqualified Republican VP candidate did themselves and the ticket a lot of favors in the debate. And then there's the key battleground state that, while it modestly favors us, we learn is far from safe. Sometimes, it's the sinking sensation that Pennsylvania is slipping away from the Dems.

If you didn't click any of those links, I'll explain the gag: none of those links are about this election. Those are articles about the presidential elections in 1976, 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2020 -- the last 50 years of successful Democratic presidential campaigns.

6th of 8

I get the urge to freak out. We all lived through 2016. We've been burned before, and we want to know the future, especially when we're careening toward a future that could either be catastrophic and dangerous or inspiring and reassuring. Polls, political betting markets, "chance to win" models, and seemingly meaningful anecdotal reporting shine a light on that dark future. But the light won't help us find our wallet or defeat the fascists. At this point, only voter contact can.

Why the freakout hurts us and helps Trump.

Here's the short version of it: The freakout is unsupported by the data and is worse than irrelevant -- it's actively harmful to our goal of defeating Trump. Want more?

7th of 8

Here's the long version of why we should push ourselves to reject the freakout:

An objective look at the polls says we're winning. If you look past the DELUGE OF REPUBLICAN POLLS and focus just on the average of the independent polls since Harris got in the race, the polling has been pretty consistent. HARRIS HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT DURABLE LEAD nationally and in a sufficient number of the seven battleground states. Full stop. Period. That's it. That's all we know right now.

It's a BORING STORY, and boring stories don't get retold as much as hot takes, but that is indeed the truth. THE MEDIA WANTS TO REPORT DRAMA AND CATACLYSM - THAT KEEPS EYEBALLS FOCUSED ON THEIR REPORTING AND SUPPORTS AD REVENUE!!

The polls won't be telling us anything new. We've known for months now that SEVEN STATES will determine the next president: NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, GA, NC. We've known for months that each of those battleground states is TOO CLOSE TO CALL BASED ON AVAILABLE DATA. . The polls are uncertain and will remain so -- of that we can be certain.

Final

Buying into the doomsaying actively helps Trump. If you didn't catch our Women Wednesdays for Harris call, I'd recommend you watch it here. Our favorite brilliant messaging expert Anat Shenker-Osorio made this excellent point: We all know TRUMP IS PLANNING TO CONTEST THE ELECTION RESULTS AFTER HE LOSES. That plan depends on building up a sense of inevitability about a win so that he can turn around and yell "rigged" after he loses. As Anat recommends, don't carry Trump's water for him.

We're within the margin of effort. No poll within the margin of error will help you find what you're looking for -- but voter contact in these final days sure can help all of us. We call that the margin of effort.

With that in mind, I shared with you my thought process for consuming polls two weeks out from the election. I hope this helps. Calm down and get to work!!

"Kamala's support is much higher than the polls indicate."