Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News

Drudge Retort

User Info

Hans

Menu

Special Features

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Yesterday, Kamala Harris continued her uplifting message by going to a Black church in Detroit and channeling the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. by saying the nation was "ready to bend the arc of history toward justice." Meanwhile, Donald Trump held a rally in Lititz, PA where he threw out his prepared speech and adlibbed it, attacking the polls as fake and the Democrats as demonic. read more


For those of you who participated in the pre-election poll on Electoral-Vote.com, the results are in!


Monday, November 04, 2024

Could Harris Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win the Electoral College?

It has been an article of faith among political operatives for years that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by about 3 points to win the Electoral College, which tilts toward the Republicans due to the disproportionate effect of there being more medium-sized red states than there are medium-sized blue states. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, but fell short in the Electoral College. But this year, there are signs that things could be different. Is it possible that Kamala Harris could win the popular vote by a very small margin, or even lose it, and still get at least 270 electoral votes? Maybe.


In sheep farming, "herding" is the act of getting all the sheep to move in the same direction, preferably the one the farmer wants. Sometimes, dogs are trained to help out. In polling, "herding" is the act of looking at all the other polls and then somehow massaging your data to make it look more like the other ones. In sheep farming, herding is good. In polling, herding is bad.


We've already had an item about how people are canceling their Washington Post subscriptions by the bushel. As of our piece on Wednesday, the total was 200,000 cancellations. As of now, it's passed 250,000, and will presumably continue to climb. That's 10% of the entire subscriber base.


Comments

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT:

boaz OFFICIALLY HAS A SAD.

#19 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-05 07:29 PM

Yeah?

But what about this?

shrimptacodan's November 5th challenge (is she up to it?)

#10 | Posted by NerfHerder

Yep!

This was a very interesting comment from earlier in the week:

"I get the feeling he doesn't understand how blocking works."

#166 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-10-29 11:49 PM

On the Retort it is called plonking, not blocking.

On other social media sites, when you attempt to reply to someone who has you blocked, the system does not allow you to post said reply. Furthermore, you can no longer see the posts of the person who blocked you. Your only option then is to block that person in return, and neither of you will ever see another one of your posts.

Here, 'tis a little bit different.

When you plonk someone (add to your Killfile), sure, you no longer see their posts.

But here comes the fun part: Yeah, you can no longer see the plonked person's posts, but they can still see yours.

Which means that you can't see the plonked person's reply!

And everyone else can also see plonked person's reply.

You're welcome, oneironaut

Trump Has This Thing?

I am terrified that somehow the Supreme Court will throw the election to Trump.

I suspect the models overly favor Trump, but too many voters out there just can't accept a woman as president. That is why I think Trump will win, because there just aren't enough shy Harris voters.

Removing Joe Biden will prove to have been a mistake. The Democrats are too weak in how they engage with the press, and they are treated unfairly because of it. Classism within their own party is costing them the working class. Modern day progressivism, ironically, is pushing the working class away from the Democrats.

The Democrats will only have themselves to blame for losing this election and I will point to two specific and obvious actions: (1) By Joe Biden not dropping out a year ago, we didn't have a chance to have an open primary that could have produced a ticket like Whitmer-Shapiro. At the very least they hold the blue wall and win the election. Harris would not even have finished in fifth place in an open primary; (2) When it took until July for Biden to drop out and there was no other choice but to go with Harris, we botched the VP selection. By not going with Shapiro we left PA vulnerable. My prediction is Harris gets 251 EV's and losing Pennsylvania will be the difference. And now my 8-year-old daughter will enter her teenage years with less freedoms than both of my grandmothers had at her age. I hope I'm wrong.

Your site is so horribly slanted left it's completely unreliable and you should either get on the Trump Train or leave America.

Harris Has This Thing?

Voting against Trump more than for Harris. Just say no to bullies.

Two predictions: (1) The breadth and depth of support for Harris among women will be greater than polling indicates; and (2) late undeciding voters break for Harris in large numbers, likely due to Trump's erratic behavior in the final weeks.

Three words: Women, women, women.

While taking a walk, I had forgotten that I was wearing a Harris For President t-shirt when I noticed a young, white guy (probably late-20's/early 30's) looking at me. He asked me if I was for illegal immigration and more crime, to which I responded that in fact, violent crime rates have declined. To which his reasoned, informed response was, "No they haven't." I made the tactical error of bringing up women's health issues, including how women had lost their fertility (and some their lives) due to the abortion bans. He practically spat out his question: "Are you a feminist? Everything you've said is about women." I was frankly so taken aback at his response, that it was all I could do to look at him, puzzled, and ask: "Do you have any women in your life?" Suffice to say, he did not like that question, so while I calmly said I was happy to have a civilized conversation with him, he told me he did not want to talk to me and waved goodbye and kept repeating, "Bye, have a nice day" in a tone that was not, shall we say, dripping with sincerity. Only a few minutes later, a young African-American man, around the same age as the white guy, was crossing the street towards me with a smile on his face. I smiled back. He said, "I like your t-shirt." We had a lovely chat, and parted ways, hoping that sanity and competence will win out this election, and not dishonesty, divisiveness, fear, and hate.

Harris will overperform her polls by about 3-4 points. 303 EVs (or maybe more). Pollsters are herding. Just watch.

I have voted in 10 presidential elections and this is the first time I have voted for a Democrat. I think the under-counted Harris vote (like mine) will turn out to be consequential. I also think the near-term future of non-MAGA conservatism depends on it.

Trump has been annoying me since I was 8 years old. I can't wait for him to be gone.

And just how accurate was your prediction?

We'll know in about 14 hours!

Reminder: If Kamala Harris has enough states called for her totaling 216 Electoral College votes - by 11:00pm Eastern Time - that's it.

That's the whole ball game!

And thank you to everyone for posting your thoughts on this thread!

"We came to a fork in the road and we took it." - Bobby Bowden

Drudge Retort
 

Home | Breaking News | Comments | User Blogs | Stats | Back Page | RSS Feed | RSS Spec | DMCA Compliance | Privacy | Copyright 2024 World Readable