I just want to talk logic and observation for a moment. We know that Trump's national ceiling has been 47% in both his elections. We also know that voluminous anecdotal evidence exists where voters that voted for him previously are refusing to vote for him again. This includes an unprecedented amount of his own staff and appointed officials who worked for his administration, along with prominent conservative Republican politicians and even his former Vice President - things never seen before on the national stage.
We also have seen Nikki Haley garner 20% of Republican primary voters even after she dropped out of the race. The point of this setup is to theorize that Trump will certainly lose points of support from his former voters - how many, no one knows yet.
Now we also know that Trump is making inroads with men across demographics, no argument. But what is also inarguable is the fact that women make up a majority of the electorate, and vote more consistently than do men. We also know that senior voters over 65 are the most prolific and consistent voting demographic of all. On both counts, Harris has been winning both categories of these voters in the swing states that report the information. She winning the senior category because women are voting for her at a 2-1 clip over Trump, while 65+ men prefer Trump but by smaller margins.
And lastly, the spread amongst women is exceeding 10 points in reporting states, more like up to 20 points depending on the state. In PA, they are seeing more first time women voters than they ever have in history, and the disparity can only be explained by a significant number of GOP women voting for Harris as well. And nationally, the breakdown so far has been 55% for women across the board and more women will vote than men.
None of this guarantees anything until every vote is cast and counted by the close of tomorrow. But the above info can inform us about what we're seeing happen in real time as it's being reported out to us by the media. One way or another, women appear to be the determinative voting block, energized by men promising to take away their rights to control their own bodies as it regards reproductive healthcare and abortion bans.
While everyone doesn't necessarily agree about this policy or that policy difference between Harris and Trump, women can be assured that Harris will have their backs when it comes to government interfering in women's health and reproductive choices and decisions.
