"to an extent not generally appreciated, capitalism relies on trust and good will, once that is broken, the markets teeter, plans cannot be made, investments seem risky."

Trump's economic plan includes raising the debt limit. To do that, you have to sell bonds. Other countries (China, Japan) have typically purchased that debt, but they did so under the impression that the bonds would not fall in value.

We'll see in a few months, but I would expect panic at the treasury if there is no one around to buy the bonds.

I don't know how long he will last. When you're constantly being protested or made fun of, it's hard to lead.

Trump went through five SECDEFs during his 1st term. lets see if he can beat that record.

"So if I am understanding you correctly you are saying that you (and the troops) have "lost confidence in his ability to lead"."

Yes. That's exactly what I am saying.

I'm not the US military...that's a much larger organization. But for those who occupy my office, Hegseth is something of a joke.

"The Trumpf junta produced the only SECDEF that I am aware of who was booed by military families."

The dude is a joke. He has no credibility with the troops.

I kinda feel bad for the guy. Trump wanted a lapdog, so he hired a national guard major whose biggest accomplishment was being a media personality. That in and of itself is interesting, but its his behavior while acting as SECDEF that has the force laughing at him.

Most of the time, the position of SECDEF is immaterial to the troops. They just don't care. Mattis was an exception-he was loved. I'm not sure why, but he was. This dude is getting ridiculed.

"Congrats maroons. Trumpy's "pause" seems to have restored the markets almost back to where it was just before he broke it 10 days ago."

Nope. They're still garbage. And I don't know why they would come back up.

"US military officers today must be feeling similar anxieties the way Soviet military officers felt in the 1930s (but without the firing squad): "Will I be next?"

The up side is that there are probably 10-15 European countries that would hire them on as advisors, or maybe commission them directly. A decade or so ago, Australia was hiring US officers to fly their F-18s and instruct at their different training schools.

"That 'collapse' is only temporary, just wait and see."

Objectively, can you walk me through your logic on how this is only temporary? The value of the dollar relative to the Euro has declined by $.10 in the last month. I don't think this has ever happened before.

For it to only be temporary, foreign markets would at some point need to start buying US exports. Currently, there is nothing to suggest they will. In fact, it's entirely likely that the rest of the world just says "screw it," and decides to create a new economic paradigm that excludes the US...and the dollar.

Stability is a big part of why many countries tied their national currency to the US dollar. So long as Trump is president, that stability is gone.

You were in the military. You understand that leaders come in with immediate credibility, but if they do something to lose that credibility, it's typically gone forever. Trump has lost his credibility with the global community. And really, much of the United States as well.

But most of the time, the administration didn't care that much.

This one does.

"Is this a recent change?"

Nope.

It's always been this way.

There were a lot of Jim Mattis memes when he was SEDEF, but they were all positive memes.

"Fired because of the inability to blindly follow and kiss the butts of maga idiots."

Military personnel are not allowed to be critical of government officials.

Whatcha do is make up meme's.

There are "OpSec Clear" posters around my office. Broken computers are marked "DOGE."

My fave though, by far, is a quad picture.

One quadrant has Aragorn stating, "You have my sword."

The next has Legolas saying, "and you have my bow."

The third one has Gimli saying, "and you have my axe."

The third has Saruman asking "am I supposed to be in this group chat?"

I've been in or working with the military since 1994. I don't think I have ever seen an administration for which service members had so little respect. Maybe Clinton, but I don't think it extended beyond him as a person. This administration is just a goldmine of memes.

#89

You are a very strange human.

"The biggest flop in automotive history."

I dunno. Install a flux capacitor in the back of that baby and it might take you places...

#86

So...since it would appear we are in agreement on the effects of tariffs, are you just arguing for the sake of arguing?

Some sort of knee-jerk reaction?

If you plan on visiting Europe this summer, it just got 10% more expensive.

A punitive tax, maybe? For all those disloyal Americans who would choose Amsterdam over Myrtle Beach?

As a side, the dollar declined by an additional $.02 in the last 24 hours. That's $.09 since 01 March. Nice work.

"And that's why tariffs are so devastating. The ROI is almost certainly negative for Uncle Sam, and the externalities are even more negative for actual companies that actually create wealth."

Have you taken an econ course recently or something?

"What's that mean? Name the top goods by $ that do and others that don't."

It means undifferentiated products. Think about a generic toaster, or storage bin, or plastic cups. Not technically commodities, but you're buying them for a utilitarian purpose, so lowest cost technically feasible will be the choice. To produce a generic toaster or storage bin would cost more in the US than it would to make it elsewhere and ship it here. Which is why those industries are no longer located in the US.

"The United States is still, for now anyway, the global leader in high tech manufacturing, and has been for many decades."

Yeah...we're not talking about the production of F-35s or Teslas. But that goes back to comparative advantage. The US should be making these things because the US can, while most others cannot. It would be a waste of resources for the US to focus on the production of goods that could be produced in other countries.

"By manufacturing outside the US, the cost of imported raw materials is not heavily jacked up by tariffs on products entering America. Manufacturing in the US means your cost of any imported raw materials is significantly more expensive than importing them to be manufactured elsewhere."

The cost of labor in the US would also be significantly higher than in other places, which is one of the reasons manufacturing left the US. For goods that behave as commodities, it's difficult to impossible to compete with countries where labor costs are a fraction of what they are in the US.

And if you go back to ECON 101 and the concepts of comparative and absolute advantage, that's OK.

"Can you agree with that, or are you forced to disagree?"

I don't think manufacturing is EVER, EVER, EVEREVEREVER coming back to the US beyond the minimal amount that would be required to support internal US demand, which would be far lower than current demand because manufacturers would have pricing power tangent to what it would cost to buy an imported good of the same type. And US manufacturers will never be a bigger global player than they are now, barring any sort of devasting event in Europe or Asia.

"So... What is their purpose, then?"

Bring manufacturing back to the US. Provide higher paying jobs for lower skilled workers. Protect the United State's strategic industrial interests.

Trump is a populist. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, the $5 trillion dollar loss in the stock market over the last few days didn't cost you anything.

Furthermore, Trump is entertaining taxes on the rich to reduce the burden on lower income earners. how can you not like that?

And if so, isn't free trade the antidote to this poison?

"Tariffs are a valid tool to be used in certain cases."

Which cases?

"But that's because their purpose isn't fighting trade imbalances. Their purpose is to break the system for the consolidation of wealth and power."

I don't buy that. You would have to walk me through it. But don't you think if that were the intent, it was the intent of all the left-wing politicians who supported limiting free trade as well?

"But, riddle me this - were Bernie Sanders, Schumer, and Pelosi stupid when they called for tariffs in the past or are they stupid now for opposing them? Only thing certain is that they are stupid - I just want your reason as to why."

I'm very curious as well.

For decades, limits on free trade and expansive tariffs were the purview of the far-left. Those who were not so far left as to consider themselves socialist, but still wanted the government to create protected economic classes. As I've said several times, Trump reminds me most of Dennis Kucinich and Huey Long, both populist democrats considered to be pretty far left.

Now it's Trumps "Republicans" who are supporting those same things. It's almost as if the Dems snuck in a surrogate Bernie Sanders...and republicans are LOVING it. And Democrats can't stand it.

"The one that explained tariffs were choking off the working man. IOW, pretty much any honest book describing the economic times. The Robber Baron class was paying very little, and tariffs fell to the middle and lower classes."

Again, which history book. Income taxes were only imposed permanently, in small amounts on a limited number of households, as a means of compensating for the government reducing tariffs.