Indiana already for Trump?

Tony 0-1 right out of the gate - Eberly

Huh?

We might see IN turn blue by the end of the night. - Danforth

It takes little effort to find neo-Nazi accounts that have built up substantial audiences on X. "Thank you all for 7K," one white-nationalist meme account posted on October 17, complete with a heil-Hitler emoji reference. One week later, the account, which mostly posts old clips of Hitler speeches and content about how "Hitler was right," celebrated 14,000 followers. One post, a black-and-white video of Nazis goose-stepping, has more than 187,000 views. Another racist and anti-Semitic video about Jewish women and Black men - clearly AI-generated - has more than 306,000 views. It was also posted in late October.

Many who remain on the platform have noticed X decaying even more than usual in recent months. "I've seen SO many seemingly unironic posts like this on Twitter recently this is getting insane," one X user posted in response to a meme that the far-right influencer Stew Peters recently shared. It showed an image of Adolf Hitler holding a telephone with overlaid text reading, "Hello ... 2024? Are you guys starting to get it yet?" Peters appended the commentary, "Yes. We've noticed." The idea is simply that Hitler was right, and X users ate it up: As of this writing, the post has received about 67,000 likes, 10,000 reposts, and 11.4 million views.

It's hard to believe that few are seeing the clear lines indicating that Musk's turn into a Trump sycophant, funneling his campaign and PACs over $100 million only happened after Musk and Putin spoke for the first time in 2022 and reportedly continue to communicate on a regular basis.

Trump shouldn't be winning on economic and tax ideas. But he is.

No he isn't according to the latest polling. Harris completely flipped the script on him.

Or as Ishanee Parikh, the creative director at FF PAC, the super PAC behind the aforementioned ad, put it: "Any avenue where we can put paid media and get someone to have to watch something, we're there."

Parikh and Fulks are among the leading figures in the sprawling effort - costing more than a billion dollars, involving hundreds of operatives and staffers, and resulting in a potentially uncountable number of ads - by the Democratic Party and other allies of Harris to solve one of the biggest problems they faced at the beginning of the election cycle: Disaffected voters, hammered by inflation, felt particularly disaffected toward the Democrats and the party's 81-year-old incumbent candidate, Joe Biden.

The Harris campaign, in order to reach out to young men, advertised the candidate's immigrant story during La Liga soccer matches and ads about how Trump inspired anti-Asian hate on the gaming website IGN.

Once you can find them, you have to grab their attention. Ashley Aylward, a research manager at HIT Strategies, a Democratic polling firm, recounted running focus groups of young women. The participants were shown a simple video of Harris, speaking at a podium and promising to protect abortion rights. The women agreed they found it persuasive. But they also agreed if they came across it on social media, they would swipe away before watching it in full.

The Harris campaign would occasionally deploy so-called "brain rot" techniques to grab viewers' attention, for instance by running a clip of Subway Surfers gameplay alongside otherwise-normal advertising content. But most of their attention-grabbing techniques were more mundane: making sure ads used different angles, or making sure the person delivering the message changed what outfit they were wearing, so viewers wouldn't just assume they were seeing the same ad for the second or third time.

Once they had their attention, it was about getting a message out quickly - like, really quickly. "What does your ad say in the first three seconds?" The campaigns tried to keep their message simple - something Democrats gave the Trump campaign credit for with his "no tax on tips" messaging - and tried to make sure it required almost no background knowledge about the two candidates.

There are signs the push may have worked: New York Times/Siena College polling has consistently found Trump dominant among the slice of the electorate that did not vote in 2020 - as good a stand-in as any for low-propensity voters. In May, the survey gave Trump a 48% to 33% edge.

But in the newspaper's last round of swing state polling before the election, Harris led among 2020 nonvoters, 48% to 43%.

More from above link:

The Harris campaign, in order to reach out to young men, advertised the candidate's immigrant story during La Liga soccer matches and ads about how Trump inspired anti-Asian hate on the gaming website IGN.

The Harris campaign would occasionally deploy so-called "brain rot" techniques to grab viewers' attention, for instance by running a clip of Subway Surfers gameplay alongside otherwise-normal advertising content. But most of their attention-grabbing techniques were more mundane: making sure ads used different angles, or making sure the person delivering the message changed what outfit they were wearing, so viewers wouldn't just assume they were seeing the same ad for the second or third time.

Once they had their attention, it was about getting a message out quickly - like, really quickly. "What does your ad say in the first three seconds?" Fulks asked, referring to how long the campaign has to convince a viewer to watch the full spot. The campaigns tried to keep their message simple - something Democrats gave the Trump campaign credit for with his "no tax on tips" messaging - and tried to make sure it required almost no background knowledge about the two candidates.

Both the campaign and its allied super PACs focused on basic economic messaging - hitting Trump on his tariff proposals and contrasting them with Harris' support for an expanded child tax credit, for instance - and on savaging Trump over abortion rights. Those messages tended to perform the best in the extensive message testing now endemic to Democratic political campaigns.

"We're not slicing and dicing the electorate or seeing big differences in the issues people care about," Parikh said. "Because even people who care deeply about specific issues, their number one issue is still their wallet."

There were some audience-specific messages: The Harris campaign, for instance, launched geotargeted digital ads aimed at college campuses to tell students Republicans were threatening the Affordable Care Act's provision to allow children to stay on their parents' health insurance until age 26.

Low information voters are still the norm, Corky, and for ----- sake, you know that. And she hasn't reached them very well and I pray to God that it doesn't cost her the election.

Not true at all.

...sorta like neo-nazis.

Ah, no, hence the term NEO moron.

You're really not too bright, are you? Even idiots understand that contemporary 'affiliates' are aligned in ways groups that existed in different eras without any connective thread through time aren't.

ISIS has always been based on decentralization as a means to protect its members fighting against a common enemy, while original Nazism was completely centralized around Adolph Hitler and the German military.

Again, moronic. You're proving your original point is meaningless. ISIS is more a counter-ideal against traditional western imperialism and dominance of weaker cultures through a perverted use of Islam. Ideals cannot be defeated as long as people are willing to hold them and fight for them even in the shadows unlike Nazis who're always willing to identify themselves as a part of their existence.

On topic:

It is pretty stupid logic even for you.

And even MORE stupid for you. The Nazis we defeated in WWII were GERMANS and the GERMAN ARMY. Nazis today only use the name for political purposes, they do not comprise a singular fighting force and they certainly aren't trying to exterminate Jews from the world as Hitler's Nazis did.

ISIS today is still the same people we've been fighting and killing for decades. They've been defeated in battles, but they still exist under the same structures they always have.

Keep proving you're a moron. I'm having fun toying with you.

Harris Set to Enter White House; Trump Headed For Court and Potentially the Big House.

Roevember Moon Eclipses Trump While Shining Harris Rises as First Women POTUS

Nah, that would be Trump and ISIS.

Maybe somebody should tell ISIS that. Our State Department certainly doesn't think they're defeated:

I'll start the show.

America Tells Trump/Vance to "Cuck-Off!" Women Boost Harris to the White House.

that was W because of 9/11 and terrierists fear.

Don't forget gay marriage referendums on multiple state ballots too. It drew a number of AA voters over to the GOP side, especially in Ohio before it became solid red, and energized evangelicals everywhere.

Maybe this is the link you intended?

That's the same link I posted in #16 where you stated you couldn't find the information. The blockquoted paragraph in #20 was from that same link, not from the one under the #20 post.

I offered you an additional link that outlined the polling methodology underneath my response. Sorry if I confused you.

I did not see it reporting on the early voting results. (please correct me if I misread the article)

You did misread it or you missed this:

The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Yeah, so let's wait until we see the ballot results.

We're already seeing ballot results. The Iowa poll is based on votes already placed as well as intentions. Of those women over 65 who've already voted, Harris is getting 2 - 1, and leads Trump when combined with men. And there's a 28 point gap with independent women and a 20 point gap with women overall.

+65 men are +2 towards Harris and Trump's overall advantage with men fell from 27 to 14.

@#20 ... Park Rangers are like cops. ...

How so?

Has recent polling compensated?

No. And they've overcorrected for Trump voters they fear missing after doing so in 2016 and 2020.

We might see IN turn blue by the end of the night.

I'm here and I'm not feeling that vibe - but I admit, I might be missing it. There's a former female Republican state school superintendent running for governor as a Democrat and the DNSC has been pouring money into her campaign over the last weeks as GOP tv commercials try to knock her for having supported Hillary and Bidenomics. We've got multiple battery plants going up because of IRA in dead red counties and those voters know the reason why. And knocking Hillary again when she was right about the threat of Trump leading to Roe going down? They're not reading the room, are they?

And another woman is running against the idiot AG Todd Rokita who caused all the problems for Dr. Bernard that treated the 10 year old Ohio rape victim. Nobody likes this clown, so I hope he goes too.

But Roevember is real, the numbers don't lie. And a significant number of GOP men will also vote to support the women in their lives without telling their MAGA bros. It's never over till it's over, but it's hard not to feel positive heading to bed tonight.

She knows what she's doing because she's been successful in every one of her election campaigns.

[W]hile Ms. Harris has raised more than $1 billion for her presidential bid, which has afforded her a formidable war chest, campaign officials say she has made a point to continue making stops at barber shops, music stores and bookshops.

But in a fast-paced national campaign, Ms. Harris has been better known this time around for her big, high-profile rallies. After most rallies, she goes and walks a rope line, often beelining for young children. After town-hall events, she has gone over to voters who asked her a tough question to talk face to face.

"She has been clear that she needs to look people in the eye, and not just talk about the stakes but talk about aspirations, in their own space," said Michael Tyler, the communications director for Ms. Harris's campaign. "It's part and parcel for how she's campaigned throughout her career."

Sadly the moneyed elite has poisoned the Democratic BOTH parties.

And Citizens United is to blame, which Democrats fought bitterly against and proposed numerous fixes to McCain-Feingold, which were rejected by Republicans.

Money is the root of electoral success, period. And you can't get money from people who don't have any. So if you want to win - even if you abhor the system - you do what you must, because change can only happen from within the political system. Change isn't going to happen by those pissing into the tent from the outside offering nothing in the fight against oligarchic kleptocracy.

Sadly it sounds like we won't know the outcome by the end of tomorrow night.

Based on a national 55-42 split of women to men, I'm pretty sure we will. The earliest marker is North Carolina. If Trump loses there, he has no path to 270, the outcome will be decided.

Harris could lose PA, AZ, NV, and GA but still secure 271 electoral votes.

It should have been a party message of taking on corporate America and Wall Street for the average worker.

No, the most salient message was for men to stay the hell out of women's lives when it regards their personal health and reproductive decisions just like no law compels men to do or not do anything regarding the same through force of law.

The numbers of GOP women voting for Harris is going to boggle the mind this time tomorrow when the first exit polls start trickling out.

If not, I'll be here to eat crow but the only bird I'm looking forward to is the one America is going to fly in Trump's face when he's finally humiliated beyond measure.

And JD Vance just called Kamala Harris "trash" in his stump speech just minutes ago. They simply don't get it, do they?

Women's anger has, of course, been a catalytic force in American politics since the insult of Trump's election in 2016. It drove the Women's March and the #MeToo movement, and persuaded record numbers of Democratic women to run for office in recent cycles. Female rage was rekindled when, thanks to Trump's Supreme Court picks, we lost Roe v. Wade and women in many conservative states were stripped of control over their reproductive lives. The backlash to Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the case that ended Roe, is probably why the red wave that Republicans were expecting in 2022 never materialized. It helped Democrats win important state-level victories last year, including the re-election of Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

Some conservative men have assumed that women's outrage would fade. "As we settle back into what feels like a status quo," the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told NPR last year, it will be "tougher to move people and to message on" abortion. Others on the right decided to lean into the gender gap, hoping to galvanize disaffected young men, including men of color, to make up for their erosion among women. "For every Karen we lose, there's a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement," Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida told the right-wing network Newsmax this year.

Maybe Trump's hyper-patriarchal approach will work. Among Republicans, however, you can already see a dawning suspicion that the male voters they're counting on to replace conscientious suburban women may not be wholly reliable. "The core plot of the Barbie movie was distracting men so they wouldn't vote," Gaetz wrote on X on Monday. "Don't make the Barbie movie come true."